| Reference: | 中文書目
李永山、黃錦川、許譽勝，2008. 《以修正式德菲法探討台灣資訊軟體公司競爭策略之研究》，資訊電子學刊。第三卷，第一期，頁39-50。
何正羽，2006. 《高齡人口Gompertz死亡率推估模型的建構與應用》，東吳大學商用數學系碩士論文。
余純君，2000.《願付價值及其前測的研究》，國立政治大學統計研究所論文。
余清祥與藍銘偉，2003.《台灣地區生育率模型之研究》，人口學刊第 27期，頁105-131。
余清祥與郭孟坤，2008.《電腦模擬、隨機方法與人口推估的實證研究》，人口學刊第36期，頁67-98。
余清祥、蔡紋琦、李芯柔、郭孟坤、王泰期，2008. 《隨機模型與電腦模擬的人口研究》行政院經濟建設委員會委託國立政治大學統計系研究。
周雅容，1997.《焦點團體法在調查研究上的應用》，中央研究院調查研究。
洪志成、廖梅花譯，2003.《焦點團體訪談》，嘉義：濤石。
莊慶達、趙聚誠，(2000). 《經濟名詞釋典》，台北：華泰文化。
林金定、嚴嘉楓、陳美花，2006. 《質性研究方法：訪談模式與實施步驟分析》，中華啟能基金會身心障礙研究，卷3:2，頁122-136。
潘淑滿，2003.《質性研究：理論與應用》，心理出版社，頁114。
英文書目
Cooke, R.M. and Goossens, L.H.J. (2008). “TU Delft Expert Judgment Data Base,” Special issue on expert judgment Reliability Engineering & System Safety, vol. 93, pp. 657-674.
Couper, M.R. (1984). “The Delphi technique: characteristics and sequence model,” ANS Adv Nurs Sci. pp.72-77.
Gordon, T. J. und Helmer, O. (1964). “Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study,” Rand Corporation, Santa Monica/ California.
Green, B., Jones, M., Hughes, D., and Williams, A. (1999). “Applying the Delphi technique in a study of GP`s information requirements,” Health and Social Care in the Community 7, pp.198-205.
Hall, P. (1985). “Resampling a Coverage Pattern”, Stochastic Processes Applications, vol. 20, pp.231-246.
Hanemann, W.M. (1984). “Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discrete responses, ”American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 66, No. 3, pp.332-341.
—(1987). “Welfare evaluations in contingent valuation experiments with discrete response data reply, ”American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 69, No. 1, pp. 185-186.
Hsu, C. (2007). “The Delphi Technique: Making Sense of Consensus,” Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, vol.12, No. 10. pp. 1-8.
Jones, H. and Twiss, B. C. (1978). “Forecasting technology for planning decision,” London, UK: Macmillan Press Ltd.
Keilman, N., Pham, D.Q., and Hetland, A. (2002), “Why Population Forecasts should be Probabilistic - Illustrated by the Case of Norway”, Demographic Research, Vol. 6, pp.410-454.
Künsch, H.R. (1989). “The Jackknife and the Bootstrap for General Stationary Observations,” The Annuals of Statistics, vol. 17, pp.1217-1261.
Lee, R.D. and Tuljapurkar, S.(1994), “Stochastic Population Forecasts for the United States: Beyond High, Medium and Low,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 89, pp.1175-1189.
Lu, M. and Yue, C. J. (1996), “The Advantage of Second Guesser in a Two-person, zero-sum Game,”政大學報 (TSSCI), vol. 73, 439-450.
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., and Scherbov, S. (1996). “Probabilistic population projections based on expert opinion,” Earthscan, London, UK, pp. 397-428.
—(1998). “Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections.” Population and Development Review, Vol. 24, pp.139-155.
Lutz, W., and Scherbov, S. (1997). “Sensitivity Analysis of Expert-Based Probabilistic Population Projections in the Case of Austria,” IIASA Interim Report IR-97-048.
—(1998a). “An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections: The example of Austria,” European Journal of Population, vol. 14, pp.1-17.
—(1998b). “Probabilistische Bevölkerungsprognosen für Deutschland,” Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, vol. 23, pp.83-109.
—(2001). “The end of world population,” growth.Nature, 412, pp.543-545.
—(2003). “The End of Population Growth in Asia,” Journal of Population Research, pp.125-141.
McKenna, H.P. (1994). “The Delphi technique: a worthwhile research approach for nursing?” J Adv Nurs. vol. 19, pp.1221-5.
Mead, D.M. (1992). “Innovations in nursing care. The development of primary nursing in Wales Unpublished report.” Department of Health, London.
Morgan, D. L. (1988). “Focus Groups as Qualitative Research. Newbury Park,” SAGE Publications.
Mowbray, A.H. (1914). “How Extensive a Payroll Exposure Is Necessary to give a Dependable Pure Premium?” Proceedings of the Casually Actuarial Society, I, pp.24-30
Murry, J. W. and Hammons, J. O. (1995). “Delphi: a versatile methodology for conducting qualitative research.” Review of Higher Education Vol. 18, pp.423-36
Norman, C. D. (1969). “The Delphi Method：An Experimental Study of Group Opinion.” Futures, Vol. 1, pp.408–426
Payne, J. W. (1976). “Task complexity and contingent processing in decision making: An information search and protocol analysis,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, vol. 16, pp.366-387.
Stoto, M. A. (1983). “The Accuracy of Population Projections,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 78, pp.13-20.
Stuart A. K., Harry H. P. and Gordon E. W. (2012).“LOSS MODELS：From Data to Decisions.” WILEY.
William R. B. (1997). “Comparing and Assessing Time Series Methods for Forecasting Age-Specific Fertility and Mortality Rates,” Journal of Official Statistics, Vol.13, pp.279-303. |
