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    题名: 影響壽險解約行為因素之實證分析
    On the Factors Affecting the Surrenders Behavior of US Life Insurance Contracts
    作者: 林冠勳
    Lin, Kuan Hsun
    贡献者: 江彌修
    Chiang, Mi Hsiu
    林冠勳
    Lin, Kuan Hsun
    关键词: 解約率
    壽險保單
    總體經濟
    Surrender/Lapse rate
    Life Insurance
    Macroeconomic
    日期: 2016
    上传时间: 2016-07-11 17:04:32 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本篇論文要探討的主題為何種總體或個體因素會影響投保人在壽險上的解約行為。由於壽險保單的解約行為會讓保險公司面臨現金流、聲譽、逆選擇等風險，進而影響公司營運。因此探討影響保單解約率之因素，進而準確估計保單的解約率為十分重要的議題。此外，不論投保人主動解約或是被動使保單失效均會對保險公司造成影響，因此本篇論文也將利用不同解約率的計算方式進行實證分析，研究是否不同計算方式的解約率會影響實證結果。本文使用NAIC (National Association of Insurance Commissioners)保險資料庫之年報資料，對2004-2014年間保險公司之經營狀況進行分析，驗證解約率實證中常用的三個假說：市場利率假說、緊急資金假說以及保單替換假說，選用之變數包含失業率、利率、保單替換率、高齡比等變數，並採用固定效果模型作為縱橫資料之迴歸模型，分別對不同計算方式所得之解約率進行迴歸分析，並比較彙整其結果。最後針對結果提出未來研究之建議。
    Insurance companies’ business will be influenced by surrender activities in several aspects, such as cash flow problem and inverse selection problem. Empirical researches show that both macroeconomic variables and microeconomic variables will influence surrender behaviors. Hence, this paper seeks to which kinds of macroeconomic variables will influence surrender activities and investigates whether using different ways to calculate surrender rate will cause different empirical results.

    All available US insurance company data, ranging from January 2004 to December 2014, are obtained from the annual statement in NAIC (National Association of Insurance Commissioners).We found some evidence supporting Emergency Fund Hypothesis and Interest Rate Hypothesis, but using different ways to calculate surrender rate may cause a little bias in conclusion. However, the relationship between surrender activities and macroeconomic variables supports insurance companies to understand and actively manage lapse/surrender risk.
    參考文獻: Bacinello, A. (2003). Fair Valuation of Guaranteed Life Insurance Participating Contract Embedding a Surrender Option. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 70(3), pp. 461-487.
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    Russell, D.T., S.G. Fier, J.M. Carson and R.E. Dumm. (2013). An Empirical Analysis of Life Insurance Policy Surrender Activity. Journal of Insurance Issues, 36(1), pp. 35-57.
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    展凱, 陳華. (2013). 我國壽險保單退保影響因素的實證研究－基於公司層面的微觀數據. 保險研究(6).
    高洪忠. (2008). 保險公司結案率的計算與應用研究. 中央財經大學學報(9).
    陳華, 孫越君. (2014). 中國壽險產品退保率的影響因素分析－基於省級面板數據的實證檢驗. 當代經濟科學(4).
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    金融學系
    103352001
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1033520012
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[金融學系] 學位論文

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