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| Title: | 台灣地區高齡人口死亡率之預測
The Projection of Elderly Mortality in Taiwan Area |
| Authors: | 張正鵬
Chang, Cheng-Peng |
| Contributors: | 余清祥
Yue, Ching-Syang Jack
張正鵬
Chang, Cheng-Peng |
| Keywords: | 高齡人口
死亡率
預測
Elderly
Mortality
Projection |
| Date: | 1998 |
| Issue Date: | 2016-04-21 09:55:06 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 對於預測未來人口的死亡率，國外已有學者提出一些配適死亡率曲線的方法，但可以合適地配適台灣地區死亡率的方法則尚未有學者提出。且在所有的年齡層中，嬰幼兒及高齡人口死亡率的變化較不穩定，但高齡人口死亡率的變化對整個人口結構的影響較大，所以在本文中將只針對高齡人口的死亡率來做預測。
A few mathematical models used to fit mortality curve to project future mortality levels are proposed by demographer and statistician in recent years.However, the methods that can be used to appropriately fit the mortality curve in Taiwan have not been brought up yet. Among all other age groups, infants and elderly(60+) mortality change more dramatically than the other age group, as a result the latter has greater impact on the population structure for Taiwan. Hence, our projection focuses on the mortality of elderly population. |
| Reference: | 一、中文部分
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行政院經濟建設委員會人力規劃處(1999)，"中華民國臺灣地區民國87年至140年人口推計"，行政院經濟建設委員 會。
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２．英文部分
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Wilmoth, J. R.(1996), "Mortality Projections for Japan: A Comparison of Four Methods", in Health and Mortality Among Elderly Populations, Caselli and Lopez (ed.), 266-287. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系
86354004 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001562 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [統計學系] 學位論文
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