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    题名: 波蘭加入歐盟對其外貿影響之研究
    The Impact on Poland`s Foreign Trade for Joining EU
    作者: 趙翊如
    贡献者: 魏艾
    趙翊如
    关键词: 波蘭
    歐盟
    對外貿易
    引力模型
    日期: 2012
    上传时间: 2013-02-04 09:42:13 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 波蘭於2004年正式加入歐盟，加入歐盟至今已有八年，並於2011年成為歐盟輪值主席國。波蘭加入歐盟是否對其外貿具影響力?本論文透過波蘭參與歐盟的過程、加入歐盟後的經濟面向，以及引力模型進行實證分析。

    從引力模型實證分析結果發現：一、歐盟雖然對波蘭進、出口貿易都具有正相關，但相較於進口方面，對波蘭出口影響程度卻相當微小。可能因素為波蘭加入歐盟後，在進口歐盟地區商品方面，受惠於歐盟規範下的貿易自由化，進口商品更為多元；而波蘭自1993年至2010年以來，出口貿易對象高達九成以上都屬歐洲地區，當然包含歐盟國家，因此無法確切指出波蘭出口額逐年增長的趨勢，完全是受到加入歐盟的影響。不過，整體而言，加入歐盟對波蘭外貿還是具有相當正面的效益。二、貿易國家的國民生產毛額變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，換言之，貿易國家的經濟水準逐漸提升後，使得人民可支配所得增加，進而增加對波蘭商品的購買次數。三、貿易國家的人口變數，對波蘭外貿具有正面效益，表示當貿易國家的人口增加，對波蘭商品的需求量增加，使得兩國貿易量也隨之增加。四、兩國首都距離變數，對波蘭外貿具有負面效益：當兩國首都距離較近時，運輸成本也較低，因此兩國貿易次數頻繁；而當兩國首都距離較遠時，運輸成本提高，使得兩國貿易量減少。
    參考文獻: 一、中文
    (一)書籍
    洪茂雄，歐盟的深化與廣化：中東歐國家加入歐盟的意義及其影響(臺北：前衛
    出版社，2003年)。
    郭秋慶，歐洲聯盟概論(臺北：五南出版社，1999年)。
    張亞中，歐洲統合：政府間主義與超國家主義的互動(臺北：揚智出版社，1998
    年)。

    (二)期刊論文
    楊三億，「歐盟東擴及其對波蘭衝擊：政治經濟面向之分析」，全球政治評論，第
    11期(2005)，頁79~110。













    二、英文
    (一) 書籍
    Alan Mayhew, Recreating Europe—The European Union`s Policy towards Central
    and Eastern Europe, (England: Cambridge University Press, 1998).
    Dennis Swann, European Economic Integration: the Common Market, European
    Union and beyond, (Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Pub, 1996).
    Matthias Pechstein, Philipp Kubicki, “The Legal Framework of Accession to the
    European Union,” (Warsaw, 2002).
    Philipp Schröder, “Eastern Enlargement: The New Challenge,” (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001).

    (二)期刊
    Anderson, J. E., “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation,” American
    Economic Review, Vol.69, No.1 (1979), pp.106~116.
    Bergstrand, J. H., “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some
    Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Review of Economics and
    Statistics, Vol.67, No.3(1985), pp. 474~481.
    Bergstrand, J. H., “The Generalized Gravity Equation Monopolistic Competition, and
    the Factor-proportions Theory in International Trade,” Review of Economics and
    Statistics, Vol.71, No.1 (1989), pp.143~153.
    Blaszczuk Marzenna, Kaliszuk Ewa, “Poland`s Accession to the EU and its Effects on
    Trade with Russia and Ukraine,” Indeunis Papers, No. 516721(2006), pp.1~26.
    Brodzicki Tomasz, “Extended Gravity Panel Data Model of Poland`s Foreign Trade,”
    (2007), pp.1~16.
    Bussière Matthieu, Fidrmuc Jarko, Schnatz Bernd, “EU Enlargement and Trade
    Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model,” Review of Development Economic,
    Vol. 12, No. 3,(2002), pp.562~576.
    Czarny Elzbieta, Lang Gunter, “Accession Poland`s to the EU,” Bank i Kredyt, Vol.33
    (2002), pp.20~30.
    Deardorff, Alan V., “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a
    Neoclassical World?” The Regionalization of the World Economy, (1998), pp.7~32.
    Fallenbuchl Zbigniew M., “Foreign Trade in the Process of Transformation in
    Poland,” Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 22, No. 2(1994), pp.51~60.
    Faucompret Erik, Konings Jozef, “The integration of Poland into the European Union,
    (2001).
    Gurgul Henryk, Lach Lukasz, “International Trade and Economic Growth in the
    Polish Economy,” Operations Research and Decisions, No. 3-4(2010), pp.5~29.
    Heather Grabbe, “European Union Conditionality and the Acquis Communautaire,”
    International Political Science Review, Vol.23, No.3(2002), pp. 250~252.
    Horska Elena, Ubreziova Iveta, Krzysztof Wach, “Foreign Trade Changes in
    Poland and Slovakia as an Effect of Europeanization Before and After the
    Accession,” (2007), pp.177~186.
    Immaculada Martinez-Zarzoso, Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann, “Augmented Gravity
    Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows,”
    Journal of Applied Economics, Vol. 6, No. 2(2003), pp.291~316.
    Isard, W., “Location Theory and Trade Theory: Short-Run Analysis,” Quarterly
    Journal of Economics, Vol.68(1954), pp.305~322.
    Jan Borkowski, “Polish Integration Policy in the Context of the European Union`s
    Accession Strategy,” Yearbook of the Polish European Studies, Vol.5(2001), pp.
    37~44
    Jaroslaw Kundera, “Poland in the European Union: from dynamic to slow economic
    growth,” (2011), pp.455~479.
    Kisiel-Lowczyc Anna B., “Poland`s trade in the BSR after the EU
    enlargement, ”Baltic Rim Economies, Vol. 389(2009), pp.40~41.
    Kjell Engelbrekt, “Multiple Asymmetries: The European Union`s Neo-Byzantine
    Approach to Eastern Enlargement,” International Politics, Vol.39, No.1(2003),
    pp.37~52.
    Laaser Claus-Friedrich, Schrader Klaus, Heid Benedikt, “Trade Integration in an
    Enlarged European Union－Poland’s Road to Success？”World Economy Research
    Institute, Vol. 286(2008).
    Linnemann, H., An Econometric Analysis of International Trade Flows,
    North-Holland: Amsterdam. (1966).
    Misala Jozef, “Importance and Patterns of Poland`s Trade with Germany,” Kiel
    Working Paper, No.537(1998), pp.1~42.
    Morawczynski Rafal, Wach Krzysztof, “Does Polish Foreign Trade Impact
    Employment? Empirical Investigation,”(2004), pp.55~66.
    Nowak Aloizy Z., “Poland in the European Union Initial Balance of Two Years:
    Selected Aspects,” ISPI Working Papers, Vol. 17(2007).
    Pawlak Karolina, “Polish Foreign Trade in Dairy Products in the Aspect of the
    European Integration,” Roczniki Akademii Rolniczej w Poznaniu, Vol.17(2005),
    pp.67~77.
    Pisarski Maciej, “Relations between Poland and the United States,” Yearbook of
    Polish Foreign Policy, (2007), pp.79~91.
    Pöyhonen, P., “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries,”
    Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv , Vol.90(1963), pp.93~99.
    Stone Susan F., Jeon Bang Nam, “Foreign Direct Investment and Trade in the
    Asia-Pacific Region: Complementarity, Distance and Regional Economic
    Integration,” Journal of Economic Integration, Vol.15, No.3(2000), pp.460~485.
    Süleyman Tulug Ok, “What Determines Intra-EU Trade? The Gravity Model
    Revisited,” international Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 39,
    (2010), pp.244~250.
    Taspinar Aytac, “Causal Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth. The
    Poland and Sweden Case,” Hogskolan i Halmstad, (2009), pp.1~25.
    Tinbergen, J., Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International
    Economic Policy, New York(1962).

    (三)網路資料
    City Distance Tool
    <http://www.geobytes.com/citydistancetool.htm> (6/8/2012)
    Council of the European Union
    <http://www.consilium.europa.eu/council?lang=en> (10/7/2012)
    Court of Auditors
    <http://eca.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/aboutus/abouttheeca> (10/7/2012)
    Court of Justice
    <http://curia.europa.eu/jcms/jcms/Jo2_7024/> (10/7/2012)
    Dascal Dana, Mattas Konstadinos, Tzouvelekas Vangelis, “An analysis of EU wine
    trade: a gravity model approach,” International Advances in Economic
    Research,(2002) (19/02/2012)
    European Commission
    <http://ec.europa.eu/atwork/index_en.htm> (10/7/2012)
    European Parliament
    <http://www.europarl.europa.eu/aboutparliament/en/0076b966cf/Powers-and-function
    s.html> (10/7/2012)
    European Union, "Countries"
    <http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/index_en.htm>(6/8/2012)
    International Monetary Fund, " World Economic Outlook Database "
    <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/weoselgr.aspx>
    (6/8/2012)
    United Nation Conference on Trade and Development, " UnctadStat "
    <http://unctadstat.unctad.org/TableViewer/tableView.aspx> (6/8/2012)
    波蘭中央統計局
    <http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus/5840_6704_ENG_HTML.htm?action=show_archive>
    (19/10/2012)
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    俄羅斯研究所
    99263007
    101
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0992630071
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[俄羅斯研究所] 學位論文

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