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| Title: | 台灣政府財產之地震與洪災風險管理- 以橋梁與建物為例
Managing earthquake and flood risk of public properties in Taiwan-the case of bridges and buildings |
| Authors: | 林芝伶 |
| Contributors: | 蔡政憲
林芝伶 |
| Keywords: | 政府財產
震災
洪災
public properties
earthquake
flood |
| Date: | 2011 |
| Issue Date: | 2012-10-30 10:42:37 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 全球氣候變遷天災頻傳，全球溫室效應亦導致氣候異常，颱風、洪水等天然災害發生的頻率與損失幅度亦逐漸增加，在地球環境越趨變化快速與惡化之下，政府如何因應天災所帶來之損失與影響亦越趨重要。
本研究宗旨希冀能提高政府對於地震等巨災風險管理的重視，研究風險管理如何緩和地震及風災洪水對台灣政府財政之損害。本文將以台灣地區之地震造成政府財產中橋樑損失資料以及風災洪水造成公部門建物內容物毀損資料，模擬出可能損失金額。分析政府在利用三種不同保險機制後政府之損失與風險分散程度，並以現行於台灣之住宅地震保險基金分層承擔風險機制為例，將所模擬出之政府財產總損失套入基金，擴大住宅地震保險基金的承保範圍並設立洪水基金，分析政府存在基金下之財政支出與損失波動度。另計算政府財產在三種保險機制設計下，不同風險偏好之政府所需繳納之保費；最後一部分將檢視發行地震巨災債券的價值變化。
Because of global climate change, natural disasters frequently happened all over the world. Global warming leads to climate anomalies, the frequency and loss severity of typhoons, floods and other natural disasters have also increased steadily. And under the Earth`s environment changes and deteriorates rapidly, how should the government response to natural disasters are becoming more and more important. The purpose of this study is to attach importance to earthquake or other catastrophe risk management, and how to mitigate earthquake and flood catastrophes damage to the Taiwan government.
The purpose of this study is to estimate the exposures of some public properties of Taiwan to earthquake and flood catastrophes. The research team was able to secure from National Center University two event loss tables on the earthquake risk of road bridges and the flood risk of government buildings. Based on these tables we simulated 500,000 earthquake and flood losses respectively and constructed two loss distributions. Then we imposed three insurance schemes to illustrate how risk management can mitigate the Nat Cat risks. We further enlarged the scope to all government properties based on the losses from the 921 earthquake and the Morakot typhoon. On these enlarged loss distributions we imposed risk management schemes similar to that of the Residential Earthquake Insurance Fund (TREIF) to investigate the potential benefits of risk management on the Nat Cat exposures of government properties. And we find optimal premiums under different insurance mechanism with different risk preferences of the government. The last part will examine the changes in the value of the issue of earthquake catastrophe bonds. |
| Reference: | 一、 國內文獻
王郁翔（2008）。臺灣住宅地震保險基金資金缺口財源籌措之研究，台中：逢甲大學風險管理與保險學系碩士論文。
李珍穎（2002）。建立臺灣綜合天然災害風險管理與保險規劃之研究，高雄：國
立高雄第一科技大學風險管理與保險系碩士論文。
林建智，周行一，蔡政憲，周大慶，王儷玲，謝俊（2006）。以巨災權益賣權、巨災交換，及衍生性商品之保險期貨、GCCI巨災選擇權等新財務工具移轉災害風險之研究。行政院金融監督管理委員會保險局委託研究報告。
洪東謀（2009）。台灣地區天然巨災風險評估模型之建立，桃園：國立中央大學土木工程所碩士論文。
張澤慈（2006）。我國住宅地震風險證券化之實際研究，台北：淡江大學保險系保險經營研究所碩士論文。
陳界志（2011）。以政府預算保險管理台灣的地震風險，台北：政治大學風險管理與保險學系研究所碩士論文。
陳繼堯（2001）。再保險理論與實務。台北：智勝文化事業公司。
廖鳳茹（2004）。地震保險與風險評估之探討，高雄：國立臺灣海洋大學河海工程學系碩士論文。
歐春吉（2004）。洪水損失評估模式之建立與其保險制度之應用，桃園：國立中央大學土木工程研究所碩士論文。
二、 國外文獻
Benson, C. and E. J. Clay (2000). Developing Countries and the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters. In Alcira Kreimer and Margaret Arnold,(eds.), Managing Disaster Risk in Emerging Economies, Disaster Risk Management Series no.2.Washington, D.C.：The World Bank.
Ermolieva, T. and Y. Ermoliev (2005). Catastrophic Risk Management: Flood and Seismic Risks Case Studies. In S. W. Wallace and W. T. Ziemba (eds.), Applications of Stochastic Programming, MPS-SIAM Series on Optimization, Philadelphia, PA.
Freeman, P. K. (2000). Estimating Chronic Risk from Natural Disasters in Developing Countries: A Case Study on Honduras. Paper presented at the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics-Europe Development Thinking at the Millennium, Paris.
Freeman, P. K., L. A. Martin, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, R. Mechler, G. Pflug, and K. Warner, (2003). Disaster Risk Management：National Systems for the Comprehensive Management of Disaster Risk and Financial Strategies for Natural Disaster Reconstruction. IDB Publications from Inter-American Development Bank. No 14718.
Kreimer, A. and M. Arnold, (2000). Managing Disaster Risk in Emerging Economies. Washington, D.C.：The World Bank.
Rasmussen, Tobias N. (2004). Macroeconomic Implications of Natural Disasters in the Caribbean. Washington, D.C.：International Monetary Fund Working Paper Series 04/224.
Wilczynsky, P. and V. Kalavakonda (2000). TURKEY: Strategy for Disaster Management and Mitigation. Paper presented at World Bank ProVention Consortium Seminar, Washington, D. C.. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險研究所
99358018
100 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099358018 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文
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