政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/53186
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 113822/144841 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51821827      線上人數 : 535
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/53186


    題名: 巨災與氣候衍生性商品之定價、避險與實証分析(II)
    其他題名: Pricing, Hedging, and Empirical Evidence in Catastrophic and Weather Deriviatives
    作者: 林士貴
    貢獻者: 國立政治大學金融系
    行政院國家科學委員會
    關鍵詞: 大西洋幾十年震盪;狀態轉移;蒙地卡羅;巨災權益賣權
    Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO);regime switch;Monte Carlo;Catastrophe Equity Put
    日期: 2012
    上傳時間: 2012-06-25 15:17:20 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 氣候變遷透過溫度變化、雨量變化、颶風侵襲的頻率及其強度的增加等等氣候因子影響到整個生態環境與經濟活動，而氣候變遷造成熱帶氣旋發生頻率增加與強度增加因素，除了IPPC在第四次評估報告中認為與人類大量排放溫室氣體造成全球暖化有關，而引起颶風來臨的頻率不斷增加；最近一些研究(如:Goldenberg et al. 2001； Landsea, 2005)認為過去幾十年在大西洋颶風活動的增加和被稱為大西洋幾十年震盪 (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO)的自然天氣循環有關，此外，氣候變遷也存在突變的現象(Minobe,1977)，此突變的現象為單一轉換事件，即大氣洋流在突變後的狀態與先前的狀態大不相同，其改變的時間亦較不具週期性。本文修正了Cox, Fairchild and Pedersen (2004)，Jaimungal and Wang (2006)，Lin et al.,(2009)與Chang et al.,(2010)的模型，並依據颶風生成的頻率與情況，提出一個將颶風發生的次數成指數型遞增、颶風次數伴隨狀態移轉與突變等三種現象納入模型的考量來評價巨災權益賣權，利用蒙地卡羅模擬來評價巨災權益賣權，模擬結果顯示當颶風來臨的頻率增加、造成的損失變異程度的增加會造成巨災權益賣權的價格增加。
    The change of climate has great impact on the ecological environment and the economic activities through the vibration of the temperature, rainfall and the frequency of the landfall of the hurricanes etc. According the fourth assessment of the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC), the increasing frequency of the hurricanes is due to the huge emission of the carbon dioxide. In the recent researches (Goldenberg et al. 2001； Landsea, 2005), the increasing activities of the hurricanes on the Atlantic basin has relation with the phenomena of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), furthermore, there is also existing the abrupt circumstance in the climate change (Minobe, 1977). In the easy, we justify the model of Cox, Fairchild and Pedersen (2004), Jaimungal and Wang (2006), Lin et al., (2009) and Chang et al., (2010) and propose the model which includes these three phenomena that are respectively described as exponential increasing of the occurrence of the hurricane, the occurrence of the hurricane changing with the regime of states, and the abrupt circumstance of the climate change. In addition, we use the Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the price of the Catastrophe Equity Put (CatEPut), and find the increasing of the frequency of the hurricanes and vibration of the loss caused by the hurricanes will increasing the price of the CatEPut.
    關聯: 應用研究
    學術補助
    研究期間:10108~ 10207
    研究經費:646仟元
    資料類型: report
    顯示於類別:[金融學系] 國科會研究計畫

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    100-2410-H004-057-MY2.pdf2595KbAdobe PDF2668檢視/開啟


    在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - 回饋