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    题名: 股匯市的國際投機性攻擊策略與金融危機之分析
    其它题名: An Analysis of the International Speculative Attack and Financial Crisis
    作者: 廖四郎
    关键词: 投機性攻擊;金融危機;股價指數期貨;股價指數套利;外匯市場;遠期外匯;外人財務投資
    Speculative attack;Financial crisis;Stock index futures;Stock index arbitrage;Foreign exchange market;Currency forward contract;Foreign finacial investment
    日期: 2000
    上传时间: 2007-04-18 16:34:51 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 臺北市：國立政治大學金融系
    摘要: 本研究設立一個包含股票市場、股價指數期貨、外匯市場、遠期外匯市場及債券市場的多市場經濟模型。基於這個模型,我們分析外人金融投資對本國股價、匯率水準及其波動度以及對本國投資者福利之影響。為分析外人對本國金融市場的投機性攻擊,我們以其對本國股價及匯率之預期做為分析參數。在正常投資時期,外人投資對本國股匯市之影響,端視其對本國經濟之預期。在金融危機時期,則國際投機性攻擊是否能成功,取決於外人的悲觀性預期是否能影響本國投資者的預期。若是,則此預期扭轉是外人投資性攻擊成功的重要條件。
    The study formulates a multi-market economy which includes stock market, stock index futures market, foreign exchange market, forward foreign exchange market and bond market. Based on this model we analyze the effects of foreign financial investments on stock price, exchange rate and their volatilities and welfare of the domestic investors. For the analysis of international speculative attack, we specify two expectation shifting parameters of the foreign investors regarding the future stock price and exchange rate of the home country. During normal period, foreign investors act like domestic investors, their impact on domestic financial markets depends on their expectation on the domestic economy. In the period of speculative attack, foreign investors try to change domestic investors` expectation toward downward direction by short selling in spot and future markets. Whether the attack can be successful, the expectation persuading is an important factor.
    描述: 核定金額：360400元
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[金融學系] 國科會研究計畫

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    892416H004014.pdf59KbAdobe PDF21151检视/开启


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