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    Title: 後冷戰時期美國飛彈防禦政策之研究
    Authors: 杜和庭
    Tu, Ho-ting
    Contributors: 林碧炤
    杜和庭
    Tu, Ho-ting
    Keywords: 飛彈防禦
    國家安全戰略
    外交政策
    全國飛彈防禦系統
    星戰
    missile defense
    national security strategy
    foreign policy
    NMD
    SDI
    Date: 2003
    Issue Date: 2009-09-17 17:47:55 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   美國佈署飛彈防禦系統的爭議,在2001年12月,小布希決定佈署後已暫告一段落。實實上,發展飛彈防禦問題在過去半個世紀,一直是美國最受爭議的國家安全政策。這項攸關美國國安全的重要議題,在不同年代每次被提出,總是引起國際高度關注,和美國朝野兩極化反應和激烈爭辯。為了進一步了解美國飛彈防禦政策的形成過程和影響因素,筆者希望透過國際局勢演變、國家戰略思考、政府內部辯論、國會影響,以及飛彈科技發展等角度,分析後冷戰時期美國飛彈防禦政策的演進和發展。
      冷戰時代,美蘇在各自擁有足以消滅彼此的核武彈頭數量後,雙方簽署「反彈道飛彈」(ABM)條約,以限制彼此發展飛彈防禦系統,「相互保證摧毀」(MAD)概念於是成為冷戰時期,美蘇維持戰略穩定的重要基礎。到了雷根政府時期,美國企圖發展太空飛彈防禦的「戰略防禦計畫」(SDI),以追求抵擋蘇聯核武攻擊的絕對安全,並進一步打破相互保證安全的「鐵律」。不過在科技水準不夠的情況下,使得這項計畫始終無法實現。
      八零年代末期,隨著東歐期產政權逐一跨台,美國的宿敵蘇聯也在1991年解體,使得冷戰終於落幕。雖然後冷戰時期的美國,不再面臨成千上萬枚核彈攻擊的陰影,不過,1991年波灣戰爭時,伊拉克飛毛腿飛彈對盟軍構成的威脅,以及蘇聯解體前後,因局勢不穩,所引發的核彈處置保管和大規模毀滅性武器(WMD)擴散的問題,讓布希政府決定繼續支持發展飛彈防禦。不過,布希總統最後在國內經濟狀況不佳情況下連任失敗,使得美國發展飛彈防禦的計畫也就此受阻。
      對於飛彈威脅的看法,布希政府和柯林頓政府之間有相當大的落差。柯林頓政府認為,美國只要發展「戰區飛彈防禦」(TMD),即能滿足國家安安全的需要。對於飛彈技術和WMD的擴散,則要靠國際間的合作以及國際機制的力量解決。不過柯林頓政府傾向理想主義處理國安事務的態度,在第二任期時,有了重大調整。在共和黨國會,以及北韓試射彈道飛彈的雙重壓力下,柯林頓政府宣布研發「全國飛彈防禦」(NMD),不過由於俄羅斯強烈反對,歐洲盟國普遍不支持,柯林頓政府終究沒有做出佈署NMD的決定。
      小布希政府對美國國家安全的危機感,充份反映在支持佈署飛彈防禦的強烈立場。為了讓美國佈署保護全國的飛彈防禦系統,小布希政府上台後,展現勢在必得態度,對俄羅斯、以及主要盟國進行強力遊說。911恐怖攻擊的發生,雖然讓小布希政府對國家安全戰略進行調整,不過政府對飛彈防禦的重視和支持,並沒有受到影響,反而因為威脅來源的不確定而更加堅定這項計畫,並在同年宣布美國片面退出1973年和蘇聯簽署的ABM條約,解決法律上的約束,全力進行飛彈防禦系統的研發。
      保護美國安全是每一位美國總統的首要責任。後冷戰時期的美國,雖然以全球唯一霸權姿態主導國際事務,不過911事件後,美國不顧其他主要國家反對,執意出兵伊拉克,造成無法收拾的窘境,卻也凸顯出美國國力的侷限,並不得不尋求國際社會的協助。另外,從客觀角度觀察,中共崛起造成的挑戰,以及未來可能有更多國家或非國家組織取得WMD和飛彈技術的情況下,美國為了維護在國際間的利益以及國家安全,飛彈防禦的研發、佈署已成未來政府不可逆轉的政策趨勢。
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    劉屏,「美中同意進行高層戰略對話」,中國時報,民國91年12月15日,版1。
    劉屏,「美中較勁 雙方軍事交流停擺」,中國時報,民國90年6月5日,版11。
    劉屏,「美重申NMD非針對中共」,中國時報,民國90年9月4日,版2。
    劉屏,「建飛彈防禦系統 布希先電告普丁」,中時晚報,民國90年5月2日。
    「誰能救美國經濟」,工商時報,民90年4月19日.。
    劉聖芬,「考量通縮 Fed維持現行利率」,中國時報,民國92年10月30日,版B2。
    劉黎兒,「日新建兩艘神盾艦 將具TMD機能」,中國時報,民國90年8月18日,版10。
    「歐盟:ABM非聖經 美有權部署NMD」,中國時報,民國90年2月7日,版10。
    「彈道飛彈防禦網 美可能明年納入日本」,聯合報,民國92年9月3日,版A14。
    霍達文,「擴大歐盟影響力 法德擬組聯盟」,聯合報,民國92年11月14日,版A14。
    蕭羨一,「美向日保證 可攔截北韓中程飛彈」,中國時報,民國91年12月26日,版10。
    「應變計畫:美必要時對中共等國用核武」,聯合報,民國91年3月10日,版12。
    網路資源
    中國時報:www.chinatimes.com.tw 自由時報:www.libertytimes.com.tw
    聯合報:www.udn.com.tw
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    Sick, Gary. “Imperial Moment,” The World Today, Dec. 2002, pp.5-6;
    Slocombe, Walter B. “National Missile Defense Policy,” prepared remarks at the Center for Strategic and International Study (CSIS) Open Forum, November 5, 1999.
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    Traub, James “W.’s World,” The New York Times Magazine, January 14, 2001, p.31
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    ”We have the High Tech, They have not,” Economist, September 5, 1992, p.12.
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    Willis, G. “Open sesame! Baghdad show reveals Iraqi military-industrial capabilities.” International Defense Review, June 1989: 835-38.
    Weber, Vin “SDI, Rip.” National Review, Vol.45, Issue 13, July 5, 1993, pp.21-22.
    Woolsey, R. James. “The Way to missile Defense: Dealing with Russia and Ourselves” National Strategy Forum Review, (Autumn 2000). http://www. nationalstrategy.com/nsr/v10n1Autumn00/100101.htm
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    “U.N. still waiting for data on Iraqi weapons,” USIA Wireless File, April 6, 1991: 8-9.
    Yonas, Gerold. “Research and the Strategic Defense Initiative.” International Security, (Fall 1988):185-189.
    英文報紙
    Allen, Mike, “Bush Calls for Missile Shield ABM Treaty No Longer Viable in Post-Cold War Era, President Says,” Washington Post, May 2, 2001, p.A01;
    ”Ambitious Test of Missile Defense Called Successful,” Washington Post, March 16, 2002, p.A15.
    Associated Press, July 14, 2000, 0733.
    Baker, Peter, “Moscow Chides U.S. on Plan to Store Warheads,” Washington Post, January 12, 2002, p.A16.
    Baker, Peter and Susan B. Glasser, “Russia Details Anti-Missile Alternative,” Washington Post, February 21, 2001, p.A16
    Berger, Samuel R., “Is This Shield Necessary?” Washington Post, February 13, 2001, p.A21
    Broad, William J., “U.N. Says Iraq Was Building H-Bomb and Bigger A-Bomb,” New York Times, October 15 1991, p.12
    Brooke, James, “A Missile Shield Appeals to a Worried Japan,” New York Times, November 11, 2002.
    Bruni, Frank, “Putin Urges Bush Not To Act Alone On Missile Defense Shield,” New York Times, June 17, 2001.
    “Bush May Keep Midgetman Despite Cheney,” Salt Lake Tribune, April 22, 1989, p.A2.
    “Bush Winning over Russia on NMD,” Taipei Times, May 17, 2002, p.6.
    Carter, Tom, “Two Join Missile Defense Program,” Washington Times, January 14, 2004.
    Claiborne, William, “Scud Kills 27 Gis At Dhahran Billet,” Washington Post, 26 February 1991, p.A1.
    “Defense Science Board Report on SDI,” Washington Post, July 10, 1987, p.A21
    DeYoung, Karen, and Mike Allen, “Bush Shifts Strategy From Deterrence to Dominate,” Washington Post, September 21, 2002, p.A1
    Dewar, Helen, “Senate Approves $87 Billion For Iraq,” Washington Post, November 4, 2003, p.A01
    Dowd, Maureen, “Freudian Face-Off,” New York Times, June 16, 1999, p.29.
    ”Eliminating the Threat to World Security Posed by the Iraqi Regime and Halting the Torture, Imprisonment and Execution of Innocents,” Foreign Press Center Briefing, Washington, D.C., March 28, 2003
    Broad, William J., “M.I.T. Studies Accusations of Lies and Cover-Up of Flaws in Antimissile System,” New York Times, January 2, 2003.
    Firestone, David, “Pentagon Seeking to Deploy Missiles Before Full Testing,” New York Times, February 27, 2003.
    Gellman, Barton, “Pentagon Abandons Goal of Thwarting U.S. Rivals,” Washington Post, May 24, 1992, p,A.1
    Gertz, Bill, “Israeli Pride Stalled Patriots,” Washington Times, January 20, 1991, p.A3
    Gertz, Bill, “Missile Defense Fails to Take Spot Among Campaign Issues,” Washington Times, October 22, 1996.
    Gertz, Bill, “Pentagon Expedites Missile-Defense Plan,” Washington Times, June26, 2002.
    Gertz, Bill, “Taiwan Calls for Joint Missile Defense,” Washington Times, July 16, 2001.
    Glasser, Susan B., “Russian Has Warning, and Overture, on Missile Plan,” Washington Post, December 19, 2002, p.A29.
    Gordon, Michael R., “An Arms Obstacle Falls,” New York Times, 24 September 1989, pp. 1,16.
    Gordon, Michael R., “U.S. Confirms Iraq Has Launched Rocket That Can Carry Satellites,” New York Times, 9 December 1989, p.7.
    Gordon, Michael R., “U.S. Tries Defusing Allies’ Opposition to Missile Defense,” New York Times, February 4, 2001.
    Gordon, Michael R., “Iraq Hits Israeli Cities with Missiles; U.S. Strikes at Launchers,” New York Times, 18 January 1991, p.1
    Gordon, Mihcael R., “Putin Suggesting Alternative Plan on Missile Defense,” New York Times, June 3, 2000.
    Gordon, Michael R., “Bush Plans to Cut Reagan Request for Key Weapons,” New York Times, 24 April 1989, pp. 1, 13
    Graham, Bradley, “Army Hit in New Mexico Test Said to Bode Well for Missile Defense,” Washington Post, March 16, 1999, p.A07
    Graham, Bradley, “Cruise Missile Threat Grows, Rumsfeld Says,” Washington Post, August 18, 2002, p.A1.
    Graham, Bradley, “GAO Cites Risks in Missile Defense,” Washington Post, June 5, 2003, p.A06.
    Graham, Bradley, “Improved Air Defense Gets Tryout in Combat,” Washington Post, March 21, 2003, p.A20.
    Graham, Bradley, “Missile defense Choice Sought,” Washington Post, September 3, 2002, p.A01.
    Graham, Bradley, “Missile Defense to Start in 2004,” Washington Post, December 18, 2002, p.A01.
    Graham, Bradley, “Missile Defense Failing to Launch as Voting Issue,” Washington Post, July 28, 1996. p.A06
    Graham, Bradley, “Nuclear-Tipped Interceptors Studies,” Washington Post, April 11, 2002, p.A02.
    Graham, Bradley, “Pushing Technology and Fighting Skeptics,” Washington Post, November 28, 2003, p.A39.
    Graham, Bradley, “Questions On Missile Defense Plans,” Washington Post, July 16, 2003, p.A02.
    Graham, Bradley, “Rise and Fall of a Navy Missile,” Washington Post, March 28, 2002, p.A03.
    Graham, Bradley, “Secrecy on Missile Defense Grows,” Washington Post, June 12, 2002, p.A10.
    Graham, Bradley, “U.S. Missile Defense Set to Get Early Start,” Washington Post, February 2, 2004. p.A10.
    Graham, Bradley, “U.S. Seeks Foreign Aid in Missile Defense,” Washington Post, June 29, 2002, p.A17.
    Graham, Bradley, “White House Unveils Antimissile System Policy,” Washington Post, May 21, 2003, p.A15.
    Gross, Daniel, “How to Make the Deficit Look Smaller Than It Is,” New York Times, November 23, 2003.
    C.B. Hanif, “More News about Iraq Casualties,” Palm Beach Post, June 13, 2004
    Hoagland, Jim, “Some Sure Answers from Bush,” Washington Post, December 21, 1999, p.A41.
    Hedges, Michael, and Rowan Scarborough, “Despite Scuds Remain,” Washington Times, January 22 1991, p.A1
    “In Interview, a Little Help on Chechnya,” Washington Post, March 20, 2003, p.A34.
    Isikoff, Michael, and George Lardner, Jr., “Bomb Parts Seized on the Way to Iraq, U.S. Nuclear Triggers Smuggled to London,” Washington Post, March 29 1990, p.A1
    Keller, Bill, “Missile Defense: The Untold Story,” New York Times, December 29, 2001.
    Kranish, Michael, “New Push for missile Defense Dole and Clinton Put Plans forward,” The Boston Global, October 3, 1996.
    Leonhardt, David, “3 Months of Growth Best in 3 Years,” New York Times, November 8, 2003.
    LaFraniere, Sharon, “Putin Calls ABM Move ‘Mistake’,” Washington Post, December 14, 2001, p.A40
    LaFraniere, Sharon, “Russia Quits Arms Pact,” Washington Post, June 15, 2002, p.A20.
    Lancaster, John and Terry M. Neal, “Heavyweight “Vulcans’ Help Bush Forge a Foreign Policy,” Washington Post, November 19, 1999, p.A2.
    Loeb, Vermon, “Allies Join Pentagon Research on Zapping Missiles,” Washington Post, August 4, 2001, p.A03
    Milbank, Dana, “Bush Seeks to Reassure Nation on Iraq,” Washington Post, May 25, 2004. p.A01.
    Milbank, Dana, “Criticism Softens on ABM Move,” Washington Post, May 22, 2002, p.A28.
    Milbank, Dana “U.S. Withdraws From Missile Treaty,” Washington Post, June 24, 2002, p.A28.
    Mitchell, Alison, “Bush Says U.S. Should Reduce Nuclear Arms,” New York Times, May 24, 2000, p.A1.
    Mitchell, Alison, “Senate Democrats Square Off with Bush Over Missile Defense,” New York Times, May 3, 2001.
    Murray, Frank J. “Israel Gets U.S. Patriots,” Washington Times, 20 January 1991, p.A1
    Muffson, Steven “Bush Advocates Using U.S. Military to Defend Taiwan,” Washington Post, April 25, 2001.
    Mufson, Steven and Dana Milbank. ”U.S. sets Missile Treaty Pullout,” Washington Post, December 14, 2001, p.A01.
    Mulson, Steven and Helen Dewar, “Pentagon Issures Warnning to China,” Washington Post, February 23, 2000, p.A16..
    Mufson, Steven, “New Era Not Here Yet, Say Critics,” Washington Post, May 2, 2001, p.A06;
    Mufson, Steven and Philip P. Pan, “Spy Plane Delays Irk President: Bush Asks ‘Prompt Release by Chinese,” Washington Post, April 3, 2001, p.A01.
    Mufson, Steven and Thomas Ricks, “Pentagon Won’t Back Taiwan Deal,” Washington Post, April 17, 2000, p.A1
    Myers, Steven Lee., “U.S. Asking Russia to Ease the Pact on Missile Defense,” New York Times, January 21, 1999. p.1.
    Mufson, Steven, “U.S. Taiwan Policy Hits New Level of Ambiguity: Bush’s Words Please Some, Leave Others Confounded,” Washington Post, April 27, 2001, p.A20.
    Neal, Terry M. “Bush Backs Wider Missile Defenses,” Washington Post, May 24, 2000, p.A01.
    Neal, Terry M. “Bush Falters in Foreign Policy Quiz,” Washington Post, November 5, 1999, p.A2
    Oberdorfer, Don, “A New Age of Uncertainty Is Born,” Washington Post, January 4 1985, p.A20.
    O’Hanlon, Michael, “Keep U.S. Nuclear Testing on the Back Burner,” Los Angels Times, January 21, 2001.
    Oleg Shchedrov, “Putin Sees U.S. Missile Concerns, But No Threat Now,” Reuters, July 12, 2000.
    Promfret, John, “A Buildup of Irritation In Relation,” Washington Post, April 3, 2001, p.A01.
    ”President’s Speech on Military Spending and a New Defense,” New York Times, March 24 1983, p.20.
    “Putin Vows No Anti-U.S. Action with China Over ABM,” Reuters, July 18, 2001.
    “Reagan’s Missile in Space, ‘Star Wars,’ Is Proclaimed Dead,” New York Times, May 14, 1993.
    Richter, Paul “U.S. Works Up Plan for Using Nuclear Arms,” Los Angles Times, March 9, 2002.
    Ricks, Thomas E., “New Attacks Intensify Pressure on Bush,” Washington Post, November 3, 2003, p.A01.
    Thomas E. Ricks and Peter Slevin, “Staying the Course, Without Choice,” Washington Post, October 29, 2003, p.A18.
    Rosenthal, Andrew. ”Tower Declares ‘Star Wars’ Shield Can’t be Complete,” New York Times 27 January 1989, p.1.
    Rosenthal, Andrew “‘Star Wars’ Plan Facing a Delay, Its Director Says,” New York Times, 12 May 1989, pp. 1, 32.
    Sammon, Bill, “No hurry to scrap ABM pact,” Washington Times, August 24, 2001.
    Sanger, David E., “Bush Flatly States U.S. Will Pull Out of Missile Treaty,” New York Times, August 24, 2001.
    Schmitt, Eric ”Senators Support ‘Star Wars’ Base,” New York Times, July 18, 1991, p.22
    Seib, Gerald F. and Walter S. Mossberg, “Iraqi Missiles Hit Israel as U.S. Presses Air Attacks,” Wall Street Journal, 18 January 1991, p.A1.
    Shanker, Thom. “Army Secretary Steps Down; Had Clashed With Rumsfeld,” New York Times, April 26, 2003.
    Smith, R Jeffery “Inspectors Say Iraq Had Key H-Bomb Item,” Washington Post, 9 October 1991, p.A1
    Smith, R. Jeffrey “No Shift on Missile Defense Foreseen,” Washington Post, 9 June 1989, p.A20.
    Smith, R. Jeffery. “SDI Plan Draws Military Critics,” Washington Post, June 28 1987, p.A4.
    Smith, R. Jeffrey. “Threat Gone, ‘Star Wars’ is Banished,” Washington Post, May 14, 1993, p.A1.
    Smith, R. Jeffrey “U.N. Says Iraqis Prepared Germ Weapons in Gulf War: Baghdad Balked, Fearing U.S. Nuclear Retaliation,” Washington Post, 26 August 1995, p. A1.
    Smith, R. Jeffrey “US Rejects Space-Weapons Constraints.”, Washington Post, December 9 , 1989, p.A22.
    Smith, R. Jeffrey “Year of Lobbying Turned ‘Brilliant Pebbles’ Into Top SDI Plan” Washington Post, 26 April 1989, p.A16.
    “’Star Wars’ Goal Cut, Quayle Says.” Los Angeles Times, September 7, 1989, p.1
    Glasser, Susan B., “Presidents of China, Russia Sign Pact Joint Statement Aims At U.S. Missile Shield,” New York Times, July 17, 2001, p.13
    Sweet, Lynn, “Why We Hit First in Iraq,” Chicago Sun Times, April 6, 2003, p.16.
    Tyler, Patrick, “Pentagon Imagines New Enemies to Fight in Post-Cold War Era,” New York Times, February 17, 1992, p.1.
    Tyler, Patrick, “Putin Says Russia Would Counter U.S. Shield,” New York Times, June 19, 2001
    Weinraub, Bernard and Thom Shanker. “Rumsfeld’s Design for War Criticized on the Battlefield,” New York Times, April 1, 2003.
    Wines, Michael, “Putin Says Russia Won’t Join China in Countering U.S. Shield,” New York Times, July 18, 2001.
    英文報紙
    洛杉磯時報:www.latimes.com 紐約時報:www.nytimes.com
    華盛頓郵報:www.washingtonpost.com 華盛頓時報:www.washingtontimes.com
    美國官方網站
    白宮:www.whitehouse.gov  國防部:www.defenselink.mil
    國務院:www.state.gov 彈道飛彈防禦局:www.acq.osd.mil/bmdo/bmdolink/html
    參議院:www.senate.gov 眾議院:www.house.gov
    智庫
    美國企業研究院(American Enterprise Institute)
    www.aei.org
    布魯金斯研究院(Brookings Institution)
    www.brookings.org
    卡都研究院(Cato Institute)
    www.cato.org
    國防資訊中心(Center for Defense Information, CDI)
    www.cdi.org
    安全政策中心(Center for Security Policy)
    www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org
    戰略暨國際研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS)
    www.csis.org
    外交關係協會(Council on Foreign Relations)
    www.cfr.org
    美國科學家聯盟(Federation of American Scientists, FAS)
    www.fas.org
    全球安全(Global Security)
    www.globalsecuriyt.org
    傳統基金會(Heritage Foundation, HF)
    www.heritage.org
    新美國世紀計畫(The Project for the New America Century)
    www.newamericacentury.org
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