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| Title: | 有偶率與我國生育率和死亡率之關聯
The Relationship between Marriage and Fertility and Mortality Rates in Taiwan |
| Authors: | 許力升
HSU, Li-Sheng |
| Contributors: | 余清祥
Yue, Ching-Syang
許力升
HSU, Li-Sheng |
| Keywords: | 婚姻狀態
生育率
死亡率
探索性資料分析
死亡率改善
Marital status
Fertility rate
Mortality rate
Exploratory data analysis
Mortality improvement |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:57:46 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 隨著社會環境及醫療等因素的進步，各年齡死亡率隨著時間下降，平均壽命延長變成許多國家的共同現象，高齡化已是全球的未來趨勢，而生育率下降更加速了人口老化，勞動力不足衝擊我國的競爭力。東亞國家注重家庭價值，結婚是生育的前提，未婚生子的比例長年低於4%，近年臺灣有偶率下降幅度非常大，初次結婚年齡及生育年齡均逐年上升，成為我國生育率持續下降的主因。另外，婚姻也與壽命有關，許多研究發現未婚者的死亡率高於已婚者，甚至高於同齡的離婚或喪偶者。有鑑於有偶與生育、死亡的關聯，本文以臺灣歷年有偶率及相關資料為依據，探討不同婚姻狀態之下的死亡率、生育率，作為推估我國未來生育率及死亡率的參考。
本文的死亡率研究著重於不同婚姻狀態者的差異比較，尤其聚焦各種婚姻狀態的歷年變化，像是已婚者的平均餘命優勢是否隨著有偶率下降而加大；而生育率的研究則是透過探索性資料分析，分析初（再）婚年齡、夫妻年齡差異等，探討有偶率與生育率間的關聯。分析發現臺灣有偶率在各年齡都下降，又以生育主力的20～39歲女性族群下降幅度最大，加上每位婦女生育數也減少，意即晚婚、不婚、遲育同時造成我國生育率的下降。有偶者的死亡率仍然最低，幾乎所有年齡組都相同，優勢似乎有逐年擴大的趨勢；過去離婚及喪偶者的死亡率最高，但近年與單身者非常接近，離婚及喪偶者的Lee-Carter模型各年齡死亡改善率最低，尤其是60歲之前的年輕族群。
Due to advances in factors such as the environment and medical technology, the mortality rate has declined over time since the 20th century, and longer life span has become a common phenomenon in many countries. Ageing is the future trend of the world, and the decline in fertility rate will accelerate the population ageing and labor shortage. In recent years, Taiwan’s marriage rate has dropped significantly. The age at first marriage and the age of mothers at childbirth have both increased year by year, causing the decline of fertility rates. Marriage is also related to life expectancy and many studies found that the mortality rates of single people are higher than those of married people of the same age. In this study, we explore marital data in Taiwan as a reference for projecting future fertility and mortality rates.
In addition to the connection between fertility rates and marriage, we aim to compare the trend of mortality rates for people in different marital statuses and evaluate whether the married people still enjoy longer lives. The analysis results show that Taiwan’s marriage rates have been declining for all ages, especially for the group of ages 20 to 39, which causes Taiwan’s fertility rates continue to decline. The mortality rates of married people are still the lowest, which is the same for almost all age groups. The mortality rates of divorced and widowed people were the highest in the past, but they are very close to those of single people now. However, the divorced and widowed people have the lowest mortality improvement at all ages if we apply the Lee-Carter model. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系
111354032 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111354032 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [統計學系] 學位論文
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