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| Title: | 負碳經濟之制度設計及影響評估
Institution Design and Impact Assessment of Negative Carbon Economy |
| Authors: | 簡子寧
Chien, Zih-Ning |
| Contributors: | 蕭代基
Shaw, Dai-Gee
簡子寧
Chien, Zih-Ning |
| Keywords: | 淨負排放
碳定價
碳債
碳稅基金系統
碳移除義務
Net-negative Emissions
Carbon Pricing
Carbon Debt
Tax-Fund System
Carbon Removal Obligation (CRO) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:37:13 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 在溫室氣體排放密集的社會現況中，將氣候目標由淨零排放轉向淨負排放，可使本世紀應償還的碳債數量被納入各種制度及政策考量中，以更有效地控制全球平均溫升在《巴黎協定》所明文的範圍內。
本研究針對碳稅基金系統（tax-fund system）和碳移除義務（carbon removal obligation，CRO）兩種負碳經濟制度工具，探討其在全球範疇的碳定價和深度減碳政策下，跨期碳移除（carbon dioxide removal，CDR）量和溫室氣體淨排放路徑等環境面效果，以及總體經濟成長、消費者所得變化和個別產業發展之經濟影響評估。
實證結果顯示，即使碳稅的初始稅率較低，碳稅基金系統可透過跨期除碳基金的累積，與碳價負擔較高的CRO制度，在氣候目標的達成和淨排放量的控制上有相似的政策效果，而CRO制度的交易成本雖高，在完整且可信的政府監管機制下，亦可在10-20年內快速消除碳債，兩者的政策成本和效益各有不同，其政策意涵亦有差別；碳稅基金系統適合與傳統碳定價政策結合，可成為有效且永續的CDR融資工具，而CRO作為可確立未來移除量的制度工具，逐步引入市場後預期可刺激CDR的研發和供給，但此制度仍處於提案階段，尚需更多研究結果以驗證其政策效果。
此外，碳定價和深度減碳政策所引發的大量資本投入將在短期內促進全球經濟成長，然而，物價水準和個人可支配所得的變動皆因地區而異；對於排放密集產業而言，雖化石燃料和電力部門因受電力結構轉型的影響，使其實質產值低於基準情境，但其餘受深度減碳政策規範的陸上運輸、鋼鐵、化學、水泥工業之產值未顯現出負面影響。
In the current context of a society characterized by high greenhouse gas emissions, shifting climate targets from net-zero emissions to net-negative emissions allows the consideration of carbon debt repayment within various frameworks and policies. This approach aims to more effectively control the global average temperature rise within the limits explicitly outlined in the Paris Agreement.
This study focuses on two negative-carbon economic instruments: the tax-fund system and the carbon removal obligation (CRO). It examines their environmental impacts, such as intertemporal carbon dioxide removal (CDR) quantities and net greenhouse gas emission trajectories under global carbon pricing and deep decarbonization policies. Additionally, it assesses the economic implications on overall economic growth, consumer income changes, and individual industry developments.
Empirical results indicate that even with a relatively low initial carbon tax rate, the tax-fund system, through the accumulation of intertemporal CDR funds, achieves similar policy effects in meeting climate targets and controlling net emissions as the more burdensome CRO system. Although the CRO system incurs higher transaction costs, it can rapidly eliminate carbon debt within 10-20 years under a robust and credible government oversight mechanism. The two systems exhibit differing policy costs and benefits, leading to distinct policy implications. The tax-fund system, suitable for integration with traditional carbon pricing policies, emerges as an effective and sustainable financing tool for CDR. In contrast, the CRO, as a mechanism establishing future removal obligations, is expected to stimulate CDR research and supply as it gradually enters the market, though it remains in the proposal stage and requires further empirical validation.
Moreover, the significant capital investments triggered by carbon pricing and deep decarbonization policies are likely to spur global economic growth in the near term. However, changes in price levels and disposable personal income vary by region. For emission-intensive industries, while the fossil fuel and electricity sectors, affected by power structure transitions, show lower real output compared to baseline scenarios, other industries regulated under deep decarbonization policies—such as land transportation, steel, chemicals, and cement—do not exhibit negative impacts on their output. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
111258004 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111258004 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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