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| Title: | 台灣退休對消費及收入的影響-模糊斷點迴歸之實證研究
The impact of retirement on consumption and income in Taiwan - Evidence from a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design |
| Authors: | 林圓恩
Lin, Yuan-En |
| Contributors: | 黃柏鈞
Huang, Po-Chun
林圓恩
Lin, Yuan-En |
| Keywords: | 退休
消費
收入
斷點迴歸設計
Retirement
Consumption
Income
Regression Discontinuity Design |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-07-01 12:18:16 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究探討退休對台灣家戶總消費與總收入的影響。本研究使用 2014 年至2020 年「家庭動態調查」的資料，透過模糊斷點迴歸設計分析樣本在退休前後斷點處，消費與收入是否有顯著變化。研究使用樣本年齡與法定請領勞退金年齡差距作為指派變數，指派變數為零作為斷點，表示樣本年齡剛好符合法定請領勞退金年齡。從圖形及數據結果可以明顯看出樣本的退休比例在斷點出有一跳升，消費及收入在斷點出皆有驟降情形，消費下降約 50 萬元至 65 萬元(15% 至 23%)；收入下降約為 80 萬元至 90 萬元(21% 至 31%)。子樣本估計方面，育有子女的樣本消費及收入的驟降情形比無子女的樣本來得顯著；具有高中高職以上學歷的樣本消費及收入的驟降情形比無高中高職以上學歷的樣本來得顯著。
This paper utilizes data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) covering the period from 2014 to 2020 to investigate the impact of retirement on consumption and income in Taiwan. Using the Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we aim to estimate whether there are substantial changes in family consumption and income at the retirement threshold. The running variable used in this analysis is the difference between the age of the sample and the age at which individuals become eligible for claiming pension benefits, and the threshold is set at the point where the running variable equals zero, which means the sample’s age matches the eligible age for claiming pension benefits.
Based on the graphs and estimated results, it shows evident that the retirement ratio jumped significantly at the cutoff point, and both consumption and income dropped significantly at the threshold. The consumption drop is approximately 15% to 23%, which corresponds to a reduction from roughly 500 thousand to 650 thousand NT dollars. The income drop is approximately 21% to 31%, which corresponds to a reduction from roughly 800 thousand to 900 thousand NT dollars. In terms of the subsample estimations, we found that the drop in consumption and income for families with children was more significant compared to those without children. Similarly, families with a senior high school education or higher exhibited a more significant decline in consumption and income compared to those without such educational background. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
110258006 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110258006 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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