政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/151990

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/151990

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政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Department of Economics > Theses > Item 140.119/151990

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/151990

Title:	台灣退休對消費及收入的影響-模糊斷點迴歸之實證研究 The impact of retirement on consumption and income in Taiwan - Evidence from a Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design
Authors:	林圓恩 Lin, Yuan-En
Contributors:	黃柏鈞 Huang, Po-Chun 林圓恩 Lin, Yuan-En
Keywords:	退休消費收入斷點迴歸設計 Retirement Consumption Income Regression Discontinuity Design
Date:	2023
Issue Date:	2024-07-01 12:18:16 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究探討退休對台灣家戶總消費與總收入的影響。本研究使用 2014 年至2020 年「家庭動態調查」的資料，透過模糊斷點迴歸設計分析樣本在退休前後斷點處，消費與收入是否有顯著變化。研究使用樣本年齡與法定請領勞退金年齡差距作為指派變數，指派變數為零作為斷點，表示樣本年齡剛好符合法定請領勞退金年齡。從圖形及數據結果可以明顯看出樣本的退休比例在斷點出有一跳升，消費及收入在斷點出皆有驟降情形，消費下降約 50 萬元至 65 萬元(15% 至 23%)；收入下降約為 80 萬元至 90 萬元(21% 至 31%)。子樣本估計方面，育有子女的樣本消費及收入的驟降情形比無子女的樣本來得顯著；具有高中高職以上學歷的樣本消費及收入的驟降情形比無高中高職以上學歷的樣本來得顯著。 This paper utilizes data from the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) covering the period from 2014 to 2020 to investigate the impact of retirement on consumption and income in Taiwan. Using the Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design, we aim to estimate whether there are substantial changes in family consumption and income at the retirement threshold. The running variable used in this analysis is the difference between the age of the sample and the age at which individuals become eligible for claiming pension benefits, and the threshold is set at the point where the running variable equals zero, which means the sample’s age matches the eligible age for claiming pension benefits. Based on the graphs and estimated results, it shows evident that the retirement ratio jumped significantly at the cutoff point, and both consumption and income dropped significantly at the threshold. The consumption drop is approximately 15% to 23%, which corresponds to a reduction from roughly 500 thousand to 650 thousand NT dollars. The income drop is approximately 21% to 31%, which corresponds to a reduction from roughly 800 thousand to 900 thousand NT dollars. In terms of the subsample estimations, we found that the drop in consumption and income for families with children was more significant compared to those without children. Similarly, families with a senior high school education or higher exhibited a more significant decline in consumption and income compared to those without such educational background.
Reference:	Aguiar, M. and Hurst, E. (2005). Consumption versus expenditure. Journal of political Economy, 113(5):919–948. Angeletos, G.-M., Laibson, D., Repetto, A., Tobacman, J., and Weinberg, S. (2001). The hyperbolic consumption model: Calibration, simulation, and empirical evaluation. Journal of Economic perspectives, 15(3):47–68. Banks, J., Blundell, R., and Tanner, S. (1998). Is there a retirement-savings puzzle? Amer- ican Economic Review, pages 769–788. Battistin, E., Brugiavini, A., Rettore, E., and Weber, G. (2009). The retirement consump- tion puzzle: evidence from a regression discontinuity approach. American Economic Review, 99(5):2209–2226. Borella, M., Coda Moscarola, F., and Rossi, M. (2014). (un) expected retirement and the consumption puzzle. Empirical Economics, 47:733–751. Haider, S. J. and Stephens Jr, M. (2007). Is there a retirement-consumption puzzle? evi- dence using subjective retirement expectations. The review of economics and statistics, 89(2):247–264. Hamermesh, D. S. (1984). Life-cycle effects on consumption and retirement. Journal of Labor Economics, 2(3):353–370. Hurd, M. D. and Rohwedder, S. (2003). The retirement-consumption puzzle: Anticipated and actual declines in spending at retirement. Hurd, M. D. and Rohwedder, S. (2006). Some answers to the retirement-consumption puzzle. Hurd, M. D. and Rohwedder, S. (2008). The retirement consumption puzzle: actual spend- ing change in panel data. Report, National Bureau of Economic Research. Kolsrud, J., Landais, C., Reck, D., and Spinnewijn, J. (2021). Retirement consumption and pension design. Lundberg, S., Startz, R., and Stillman, S. (2003). The retirement-consumption puzzle: a marital bargaining approach. Journal of public Economics, 87(5-6):1199–1218. Miniaci, R., Monfardini, C., and Weber, G. (2003). Is there a retirement consumption puzzle in italy? Report, IFS Working Papers. Wakabayashi, M. (2008). The retirement consumption puzzle in japan. Journal of Popu- lation Economics, 21:983–1005. 李宏彬, 施新政, and 吴斌珍 (2015). 中国居民退休前后的消费行为研究. 经济学 (季刊), 1:117–134. 楊子霆 (2018). 簡介 regression discontinuity design: 理論與應用. 會計審計論叢, 8(1):29–48. 蔡彣涓 (2016). 老年人口的消費行為—以剛退休人口進行前後配對的實證研究. 臺灣經濟預測與政策, 46(2):45–85. 詹維玲 (2009). 臺灣生命循環消費與退休. 臺灣經濟預測與政策, 39(2):129–159.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學經濟學系 110258006
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110258006
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Economics] Theses

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