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    题名: 美國大戰略下的南海政策
    South China Sea Policy under The U.S. Grand Strategy
    作者: 田兆哲
    Tien, Chao-Che
    贡献者: 冷則剛
    Leng, Tse-Kang
    田兆哲
    Tien, Chao-Che
    关键词: 美國大戰略
    南海
    印太
    地緣政治
    攻勢現實主義
    U.S. Grand Strategy
    South China Sea
    Indo-Pacific
    Geopolitics
    Offensive Realism
    日期: 2023
    上传时间: 2023-08-02 14:21:55 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文主要從大戰略的角度探討美國的南海政策，美國作為霸權國家，其應對中國南海擴張時採取何種政策，而這些政策反應出甚麼樣的理論思維，乃是本文所欲探討的重點。除此之外，透過地緣政治理論的角度，探討美國在地緣政治上的特殊性對於其大戰略的形塑作用，乃是本文在分析美國霸權時的另一個分析焦點。美國大戰略的根本目的就是要避免任何挑戰者崛起，依據地緣政治理論的預測，這個挑戰者必定來自歐亞大陸，而如今的世界局勢顯示新任挑戰者便是中國，美國的印太戰略就是為制衡中國而生的最新大戰略。本文主張，因為地緣政治上的因素，在美國制衡中國的大戰略中，南海具有至關重要的地位，因此美國的南海政策可說是攸關印太戰略成功與否的重要關鍵。
    This thesis primarily discusses the United States’ South China Sea policy from the perspective of grand strategy. This thesis also focuses on what kind of policies the United States, being a hegemony, adopts in response to China’s expansion in the South China Sea and what kind of theoretical thinking these policies reflect. While analyzing American hegemony, this paper will also explore and discuss the geopolitical peculiarities of the United States and its role in shaping the U.S. grand strategy. The fundamental purpose of the U.S. grand strategy is to avoid the rise of any other challenger. According to the predictions of geopolitical theory, this challenger must come from the Eurasian continent. Apparently, the current world situation shows that the new challenger is China. The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy is the latest grand strategy born to contain China. This thesis argues that due to geopolitical factors, the South China Sea plays a vital role in the US grand strategy of containing China. Therefore, the US South China Sea policy can be said to be an important key to the success of the Indo-Pacific strategy.
    參考文獻: 一、中文部分
    （一） 專書
    馬建英，2019年。《美國與南海問題》。台北市：翰蘆圖書。
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    劉雪蓮，2002年。《地緣政治學》。長春：吉林大學出版社。

    （二） 專書譯著
    Graham Allison著，包淳亮譯，2018。《注定一戰：中美可否避免修昔底德陷阱》（DESTINED FOR WAR: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?）。新北市：八旗文化。
    Chris Brown & Kirsten Ainley著，葉惠琦、龐元媛譯，2019。《國際關係》（Understanding International Relations）。台北市：五南。
    Zbigniew Brzezinski著，林添貴譯，2021。《大棋盤：全球戰略大思考》（The Grand Chessboard）。新北市：立緒文化。
    Jack Donnel著，高德源譯，2002。《現實主義與國際關係》（Realism and International Relations）。台北：弘智。
    Michael Fabey著，常靖譯，2020。《美中暖戰：兩強競逐太平洋控制權的現在進行式》（Crashback: The Power Clash Between the U.S. and China in Pacific）。新北市：燎原出版。
    Aaron L. Friedberg著，溫洽溢譯，2014。《美國回得了亞洲嗎？》（A Contest for Supremacy）。台北市：遠流出版。
    John Lewis Gaddis著，尤采菲譯，2020。《大戰略：耶魯大學長紅20年大師課程，從歷史提煉的領導決策心法》（On Grand Strategy）。新北市：聯經。
    Greg Grandin著，夏菉泓、陳韋綸譯，2023。《美國神話的終結：從擴張的邊疆到美墨邊境牆，直視美國歷史的黑暗根源》（The End of the Myth: From the Frontier to the Border Wall in the Mind of America）。新北市：黑體文化。
    Michael J. Green著，譚天譯，2022。《安倍晉三大戰略》（Line of Advantage: Japan’s Grand Strategy in the Era of Abe Shinzō）。台北：八旗文化。
    Geoffrey F. Gresh著，葉文欽譯，2022。《歐亞海上之主：群雄紛起的海上大亂鬥》（To Rule Eurasia’s Waves: The New Great Power Competition at Sea）。台北市：時報出版。
    Bill Hayton著，林添貴譯，2015。《南海：21世紀的亞洲火藥庫與中國稱霸的第一步》（The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia）。臺北市：麥田出版。
    Robert D. Kaplan著，林添貴譯，2016。《南中國海：下一世紀的亞洲是誰的？》（Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific）。台北市：麥田出版。
    Robert D. Kaplan著，林添貴譯，2021。《地理的復仇：一觸即發的區域衝突、劃疆為界的地緣戰爭，剖析地理與全球布局終極關鍵》（The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate）。台北市：麥田出版。
    Zalmay Khalilzad等著，黃俊彥等譯，2001。《美國與亞洲》（The United States and Asia: Toward a New U.S. Strategy and Force Posture）。臺北：國防部史政編譯局。
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    Rory Medcalf著，李明譯，2020。《印太競逐：美中衝突的前線，全球戰略競爭新熱點》（Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won’t Map the Future）。台北市：商周出版。
    David P. Rapkin, William R. Thompson著，高一中譯，2016。《廿一世紀的美國與中共權力轉移想定》（Transition Scenarios: China and the United States in the Twenty-First Century）。台北市：國防部政務辦公室。
    Kenneth N. Waltz著，胡祖慶譯，1997。《國際政治體系理論解析》（Theory of International Politics）。台北市：五南。
    竹田勇美著，鄭天恩譯，2021。《海上霸權：從捕鯨業到自由航行的海洋地緣史》（海の地政学：覇権をめぐる400年史）。新北市：燎原出版。

    （三） 期刊論文
    王曉文，2016。〈美國印太戰略對南海問題的影響—以印太戰略支點國家為重點〉，《東南亞研究》，2016年第5期，頁57-58。
    吳征宇，2005。〈重新認識“心臟地帶理論”及其戰略涵義〉，《現代國際關係(北京)》，2005年第3期，頁57。
    李承禹，2016/7。〈菲律賓總統大選後的南海新局勢：危機與轉機〉，《展望與探索》，第14卷第7期，頁35。
    張登及，2008。〈地緣因素與新現實主義—以冷戰後美中地緣競逐為例〉，《政治學報》，第四十五期，2008年6月，頁95-137。
    張耀之，2018。〈日本的印太戰略理念與政策實踐〉，《日本問題研究》，2018年第2期，頁9。
    黃子誠、Abhishek Kumar Darbey，2020/4。〈印度視角下的印太戰略〉，《歐亞研究》，第十一期，頁48-49。
    蔡志銓，2017/10/1。〈中共南海島礁建設對我海軍軍事戰略之影響〉，《海軍學術雙月刊》，第五十一卷第五期，頁65-67。
    鄧中堅，2018。〈美國在南海面對中國的理論與政策作為：國際政治與國際法的對話〉，《全球政治評論》，第61期，頁4-6。
    劉復國，2016。〈當前南海問題的國際安全戰略趨勢〉，《全球政治評論》，第53期，頁1。
    International Crisis Group, 2012。〈南海翻波（一）〉，《亞洲報告No.223》，2012年4月23日，頁7-12。


    （四） 網際網路
    全球防衛雜誌，2022/8/17。〈從北重南輕到聚焦南向，檢視中國海軍的兵力部署〉，《鳴人堂》，<https://opinion.udn.com/opinion/story/120902/6542912>。
    宋燕輝，2016/7。〈中國大陸對「南海仲裁案」之應對策略與作為〉，<https://www.mac.gov.tw/public/Attachment/681010152981.pdf>。
    美聯社，2023/3/14。〈中國批AUKUS造艦計畫　「在錯誤和危險的道路上越走越遠」〉，《上報》， <https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=3&SerialNo=167977>。
    自由亞洲電台，2023/3/9。〈中國艦船為何持續騷擾菲律賓？專家：回防南海後院，提防美菲聯手〉，《風傳媒》，<https://www.storm.mg/article/4752433?page=1 >。
    林正義，2022/8/11。〈拜登政府印太戰略部署與挑戰〉，《財團法人海峽交流基金會》，< https://www.sef.org.tw/article-1-129-13417>。
    林廷輝，2021/4/14。〈中國大陸實施海警法 東亞海域暗潮洶湧〉，《財團法人海峽交流基金會》，< https://www.sef.org.tw/article-1-129-12844 >。
    法新社，2023/3/15。〈澳洲總理今訪斐濟 商討核潛艦議題〉，《自由時報》，<https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4240410>。
    吳哲宇，2023/4/27。〈中共核潛艦發展大解析 美示警已有全年作業能力〉，《自由時報》， <https://def.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/4282423>。
    陳亮志、陳鴻鈞、鍾志東，2018/12。〈美國的印太戰略〉，《2018印太區域安全評估報告》，頁19。《國防安全研究院》，< https://indsr.org.tw/uploads/indsr/files/202206/61604d4d-ae4a-454c-bff7-f4461b780b91.pdf >。
    歐新社，2023/3/14。〈AUKUS三國領袖發表聯合聲明 公開潛艦合作案未來佈局〉，《自由時報》， <https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4238754>。
    蕭琇安，2022/12/8。〈美國南海「航行自由」之成效〉，《財團法人國策研究院文教基金會》，<http://inpr.org.tw/m/405-1728-1638,c113.php?Lang=zh-tw>。

    二、英文部分
    （一） 專書
    Zbigniew Brzezinski, 2016. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books.
    James C. Bussert and Bruce A. Elleman, 2011. People’s Liberation Army Navy: Combat Systems Technology, 1949-2010. Annapolis: Naval Institute Press.
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    Aaron L. Friedberg, 2014. A Contest For Supremacy. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
    Robert Gilpin, 1981. War and Change in World Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    Geoffrey F. Gresh, 2020. To Rule Eurasia’s Waves: The New Great Power Competition at Sea. New Haven: Yale University Press.
    Stefano Guzzini, 1998. Realism in International Relations and International Political Economy. London: Routledge.
    Lisa Harrison, 2001. Political Research: An Introduction. New York: Routledge.
    Humphrey Hawksley, 2018. Asian Waters: The Struggle over the South China Sea and the Strategy of Chinese Expansion. New York: Overlook Press.
    Bill Hayton, 2014. The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press.
    Terrence K. Hopkins & Immanuel Wallerstein, 1980. Process of The World System. London: Sage Publication.
    Robert D. Kaplan, 2014. Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific. New York: Random House Trade.
    Paul M. Kennedy, 1989. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000. New York: Vintage.
    Robert O. Keohane, 1984. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    Robert O. Keohane & Joseph S. Nye Jr, 2001. Power and Interdependence. Boston: Longman.
    Charles Kindleberger, 1973. The World in Depression: 1929-1939. Berkeley: University of California Press.
    Henry Kissinger, 2011. On China. New York: Penguin Press.
    A. T. Mahan, 1987. The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783. New York: Dover Publications.
    John J. Mearsheimer, 2014. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
    Rory Medcalf, 2020. Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won’t Map the Future. Melbourne: La Trobe University Press.
    Stanley E. Meyer, 1996. Incident at Mischief Reef: Implication for the Philippines, China, and The United States. US Army War College.
    George Modelski, 1987. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington.
    George Modelski, 1987. Seapower in Global Politics. Hampshire: Macmillian Press.
    Hans J. Morgenthau, 2006. Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace. New York: McGraw Hill.
    A. F. K. Organski, 1958. World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
    Organski and Kugler, 1981. War Ledger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    W. H. Parker, 1982. Mackinder: Geography as an Aid to Statecraft. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
    Andrew Scobell and Larry Wortzel, 2004. Civil-Military Change in China: Elites, Institution, and Ideas After the 16th Party Congress. US Army War College.
    Shyam Saran, 2017. How India Sees the World. New Delhi: Juggernaut.
    N. J. Spykman, 1942. America`s Strategy in World Politics: The United States and the Balance of Power. New York: Harcourt, Brace.
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    Ronald L. Tammen, 2000. Power Transitions: Strategies for the 21st Century. Boston: Seven Bridges Press.
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    Kenneth N. Waltz, 1979. Theory of International Politics. New York: McGraw-Hill Publishing Company.

    （二） 期刊論文
    L. Bautista, 2013. “The Philippine claim to Bajo de Masinloc in the context of the South China Sea dispute, ” Journal of East Asia and International Law, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 26-27.
    Robert D. Blackwill, 2020. “U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China,” Implementing Grand Strategy Toward China (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2020), pp. 6-12.
    Hal Brands, 2018. “American grand strategy in the post–Cold War era,” in Russell W. Glenn, eds., New Directions in Strategic Thinking 2.0 (Canberra: ANU Press, 2018), pp. 133-148.
    Robert D. Kaplan, 2005/6. “The Geography of Chinese Power,” Atlantic, June 2005, pp. 34-37.
    Robert D. Kaplan, 2011/9. “The South China Sea Is the Future of Conflict,” Foreign Policy, September 2011, p. 7.
    Conor M. Kennedy and Andrew S. Erickson, 2017/3. “China Maritime Report No.1: China’s Third Sea Force, the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia: Tethered to the PLA,” CMSI China Maritime Reports, No.1.
    Stephen Krasner, 1976. “State Power and the Structure Power of International Trade,” World Politics, Vol 28. No.3, April, pp. 317-347.
    Melvyn P. Leffler, 2020. “Avoiding another Cold War,” China International Strategy Review, January 2020, pp. 206-212.
    Ming Jiang Li, 2010. “Reconciling Assertiveness and Cooperation? China’s Changing Approach to the South China Sea Dispute,” Security Challenges, Winter 2010, pp. 51-52.
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    Williamson Murray, 1999. “Some Thoughts on War and Geography, ” Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol.22, 1999, p.213.
    Joseph S. Nye, 2019. “The rise and fall of American hegemony from Wilson to Trump,” International Affairs, Vol. 95, No. 1, 2019, pp. 63-80.
    Iskander Rehman, 2017. “India’s Fitful Quest for Seapower,” India Review 16, No.2, p.236.
    Robert S. Ross, 2013. “US Grand Strategy, the Rise of China, and US National Security Strategy for East Asia,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 7, No. 2, Asia-Pacific Special Edition (Summer 2013), pp. 20-40.
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    （三） 國際法院判決
    The South China Sea Arbitration (The Republic of Philippines v. The People’s Republic of China), award 2016.

    （四） 官方文件
    Australian Government, Department of Defence, 2013/5/13. Defence White Paper 2013, “Defending Australia and its National Interests,”.
    Australian Government, 2017/11. 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper.
    Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 2015. Admiral Harry Harris speech.
    Congressional Research Service, 2023/2/8. “U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Background and Issues for Congress,” <https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42784/141>.
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    DOD Annual Report to Congress, 2016. Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2016.
    Government of Japan, 2018/12/18. National defense program guidelines for FY2019 and beyond.

    （五） 報紙
    Amit Baruah, 2002/4/23. “Only ‘escort duties’ in Malacca Straits,” The Hindu.
    Simon Denyer, 2014/7/16. “China Withdraws Oil Rig from Waters Disputed with Vietnam, but Warns It Could Return, ” Washington Post.
    Michael H. Fuchs, 2017/1. “Did Trump’s Team Just Threaten War with China ?,” Defense One.
    Paul Kennedy, 2004/6/19. “The pivot of history: The US needs to blend democratic ideals with geopolitical wisdom, ” The Guardian.
    Vinay Kumar, 2013/6/5. “India, Australia Raise the Pitch on Maritime Cooperation,” The Times of India.
    Steven Lee Meyers, 2018/4/29. “With Ships and Missiles, China Is Ready to Challenge U.S. Navy in Pacific,” New York Times.
    Fumio Ota, 2011/8/11. “The Carrier of Asia-Pacific Troubles,” Wall Street Journal, Asia Edition, Hong Kong.
    Emily Stephenson, 2015/4. “Obama Says Concerned China Uses Size to Bully Others in Region, ” Reuters.
    2017/10/18. “Full Text of Xi Jinping’s Report at 19th CPC National Congress, ” China Daily.


    （六） 網際網路
    Kurt M. Campbell and Ely Ratner, 2018/March/April. “The China Reckoning-How Beijing Defied American Expectations, ” Foreign Affairs, < https://www.foriegnaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-02-13/china-reckoning >.
    Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi, 2021/ January 12. “How American Can Shore Up Asian Order: A Strategy For Restoring Balance and Legitimacy, ” Foreign Affairs, < https://www.foriegnaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2021-01-12/ how-american-can-shore-asian-order >.
    Richard Cowan, 2009/6. “China Sub Collides with Array Towed by U.S. Ship,” Reuters, < https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-china-usa-submarine-idUKTRE55C02320090613 >.
    Andrew S. Erickson, 2018/2/26. “Numbers Matter: China`s Three `Navies` Each Have the World`s Most Ships,” The National Interest, <https://nationalinterest.org/feature/numbers-matter-chinas-three-navies-each-have-the-worlds-most-24653>.
    Jim Garamone, 2016/4/16. “Carter Visits USS Stennis Operating in South China Sea,” U.S. Department of Defense, <https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/722856/carter-visits-uss-stennis-operating-in-south-china-sea/>.
    IMF, 2023/4. “World Economic Outlook (April 2023) - GDP, current prices,” <http://www.ccer.edu.cn/download/ceq/2.4/020412. >。
    Brad Lendon, 2015/5/22. “U.S. Threatens Peace in South China Sea, Beijing Says,” CNN, <https://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/22/politics/south-china-sea-dispute/index.html>.
    Jim Sciutto, 2015/9/15. “Exclusive: China warns U.S. surveillance plane,” CNN, < https://edition.cnn.com/2015/05/20/politics/south-china-sea-navy-flight/index.html>.
    Barbara Starr, May 2009. “Chinese Boats Harassed U.S. Ship, Officials Say,” CNN, < https://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/05/05/china.maritime.harassment/index.html>.
    David Tweed, 2016/5/10. “U.S. Warship Challenges China’s Claim in South China Sea,” Bloomberg, <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-10/u-s-sends-warship-to-challenge-china-s-south-china-sea-claim#xj4y7vzkg>.
    United States Coast Guard, 2022/7/4. “Assets,” United States Coast Guard, <https://www.uscg.mil/About/Assets/>.
    USNI, 2016/1/5. “Document: SECDEF Carter Letter to McCain On South China Sea Freedom of Navigation Operation,” USNI News, <https://news.usni.org/2016/01/05/document-secdef-carter-letter-to-mccain-on-south-china-sea-freedom-of-navigation-operation>.
    Kristina Wong, 2017/7/20. “Exclusive: Trump’s Pentagon Plans to Challenge Chinese Claims in South China Sea,” Breitbart, <https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2017/07/20/trump-pentagon-south-china-sea-plan/>.
    海上保安庁，2022年7月4日，〈装備・予算等〉，《海上保安庁》，<http://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/soubi-yosan/>。
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    政治學系
    109252013
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109252013
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[政治學系] 學位論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    201301.pdf4197KbAdobe PDF2116检视/开启


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