 |
English
|
正體中文
|
简体中文
|
Post-Print筆數 : 27 |
Items with full text/Total items : 113648/144635 (79%)
Visitors : 51618388
Online Users : 588
|
|
|
Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/140178
|
| Title: | 年輪變動比用於小區域人口推估的探討
A Study of Applying Cohort Component Ratio to Small Population Projection |
| Authors: | 余清祥
Yue, Jack C.
王信忠;陳譽騰
Wang, Hsin-chung;Chen, Yu-teng |
| Contributors: | 統計系 |
| Keywords: | 小區域人口推估;年輪變動比;電腦模擬;回測法;遷移
Small area population projection;Cohort change ratio;Simulation;Backcast;Migration |
| Date: | 2021-12 |
| Issue Date: | 2022-05-30 16:01:58 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 人口推估常用於制訂國家發展方針的依據，根據歷史數據及政策 方向預測全國人口數及年齡結構，作為政府研擬政策及分配資源的依 據。年輪組成法為我國官方的人口推估方法，需要詳細生育、死亡、 遷移等資料，很難直接套用至縣市層級及以下之人口推估。小區域推 估可採Hamilton-Perry法（簡稱HP法）的年輪變動比（cohort change ratio, CCR），本文以臺灣各級行政區域為研究區域，驗證HP法是否 能用於推估臺灣縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的人口及結構。本文根據1975- 2019年臺灣全國、縣市、鄉鎮市區的人口紀錄，透過區塊拔靴法與歷 年平均法估計CCR，並運用回測法得出之平均絕對百分比誤差（mean absolute percentage error）作為評估依據。研究發現HP法可用於小區 域人口，15年之內短期推估與年齡組成法相當，但推估誤差未必隨著 人口數減少而增加。另外，推估時建議採用單齡推估（五齡組誤差較 大），基底年數與地區特性有關，推估年數建議不超過15年。
Abstract Population policy is essential to national development and population projection is often used to provide insightful suggestions for planning government policies and allocating public resources. The cohort component method is currently used in projecting the national level population in Taiwan, but this method requires detailed population data, such as the records of births, deaths, and migration. It is difficult to acquire these data in county and township levels and we need to seek an alternative method for the subnational population projection. In this study, we evaluate whether the cohort change ratio (CCR), proposed by Hamilton-Perry method, is suitable for the subnational population projection via backcasting the historical data in Taiwan (1975-2019). In specific, we are interested in comparing the projecting accuracy of CCR and cohort component methods, and we found that the CCR method can be used for short-term projections (e.g., 15 years or less) for county and township levels. Also, our projection errors are smaller by using the single-age data (comparing to 5-age group data), and there are little differences in using block bootstrap or weighted average to predict the future CCR. |
| Relation: | 人口學刊, 63期, pp. 99-133 |
| Data Type: | article |
| DOI 連結: | http://dx.doi.org/10.6191/JPS.202112_(63).0003 |
| DOI: | 10.6191/JPS.202112_(63).0003 |
| Appears in Collections: | [統計學系] 期刊論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| index.html | | 0Kb | HTML2 | 278 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.
2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(
nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(
nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
