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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 資訊管理學系 > 會議論文 >  Item 140.119/138652


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    題名: A Markov Chain Model to Analyze the Entry-and-Stay States of Frequent Visitors to Taiwan
    作者: 林逸塵
    Lin, I-Chen
    Hung, Wei-Hsi
    貢獻者: 資管博五
    關鍵詞: frequent visitors;transition matrix;Markov chains;Markov process;Datamining
    日期: 2021-08
    上傳時間: 2022-01-06
    摘要: A model to predict the immigration behaviors of frequent visitors would help to improve clearance services and resource allocation at a country`s border. This research uses Markov process to analyze the entry-and-stay states of frequent visitors based on their immigration records. Prior studies have lacked quantitative information about the entry and stay states of travelers at the border. In this study, the following attributes were drawn from the immigration records: (1) entry and exit date, (2) entry and exit frequency, and (3) duration of stay. We calculated a transition probability matrix containing all transition probabilities between each entry-and-stay states of visitors. When entry event of a visitor occurs in a certain state, we can estimate the possible state in the next period and the equilibrium probability by using the transition matrix. We determines the transition state of visitors entering Taiwan, and to consider the overall transition probabilities to predict the immigration behaviors. The model results in the steady-state probability. The state S5 (Entering 2 to 8 times and staying 3 to 6 days) has the highest probability of 27.99%. The definition of frequent visitor can be revised by the implication of state S5 to improve future decisions and immigration services based on these results.
    關聯: 2021 1st International Conference on Emerging Smart Technologies and Applications (eSmarTA), Yemeni Organization for Science and Technology Research (YOSTR)
    資料類型: conference
    DOI 連結: https://doi.org/10.1109/eSmarTA52612.2021.9515733
    DOI: 10.1109/eSmarTA52612.2021.9515733
    顯示於類別:[資訊管理學系] 會議論文

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