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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 金融學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/131508
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131508


    Title: 電子類股價報酬與PMI指數及海關出口值之變數關聯性探討
    The Study of Relationship among Stock Return of Electronics Industry, PMI Index and Export
    Authors: 陳昱綸
    Chen, Yu-Lun
    Contributors: 張興華
    陳昱綸
    Chen, Yu-Lun
    Keywords: 海關出口值
    電子類指數
    PMI指數
    Granger因果檢定
    VAR向量自我回歸模型
    Date: 2020
    Issue Date: 2020-09-02 11:49:45 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 此篇研究主要以電子類報酬指數、海關出口值以及PMI指數之間利用Granger因果關係檢定、VAR向量自我回歸模型以及預測衝擊函數來探討不同變數之間的關聯性。
    在Granger因果檢定分析後可發現電子類報酬指數之報酬率不受到任何所選變數之Granger影響而與海關出口值會Granger影響到部分的PMI擴散指數,而PMI擴散指數之間的部分變數如新增訂單、存貨、生產、人力僱用之間具有互相回饋之關係。
    而在VAR向量自我回歸模型來看,電子類報酬指數之報酬率依然不受其他所選變數之影響,但是在VAR向量自我回歸模型之中,海關出口值則會受到部分PMI擴散指數影響,並且會與部分PMI擴散指數之間產生互動關係,而在PMI擴散指數之中,除了供應商交貨僅跟自己有關以外,其餘的PMI擴散指數之間均存在一定程度的互動關係。
    最後在預測衝擊反應分析上,電子類報酬指數之報酬率對其他變數主要造成正向的衝擊,其他所選變數則對電子報酬指數之報酬率皆無衝擊反應之發生,而PMI擴散指數中大部分對於PMI擴散指數皆為正向衝擊但其中PMI擴散指數中的生產以及海關出口值兩項變數,會對其餘的PMI擴散指數造成負向衝擊。
    This study mainly uses Granger causality test, VAR model (vector autocorrelation model) and Impulse response function to discuss the correlation between different variables between Electronics-TRI, the export and PMI diffusion indexes.
    After Granger causality test analysis, it is found that the return of the Electronics-TRI is not Granger affected by any selected variables and the export will Granger affect part of the PMI diffusion indexes. And there is a relationship between the PMI diffusion indexes such as new orders, inventory, production and employment.
    From the perspective of the VAR model, the return of the Electronics-TRI is still not affected by any selected variables, but the export will be affected by part of PMI diffusion indexes and will have a relationship with some of PMI diffusion indexes. And for PMI diffusion indexes, except that the supplier`s delivery is only related to itself, there is a certain degree show that there’s some relationship between PMI diffusion indexes.
    Last in the analysis of Predicted Impulse Response, the return of the Electronics-TRI cause a positive impact on other variables, and other selected variables have no impact on the return of the Electronics-TRI. Most of the PMI diffusion indexes have a positive impact on the PMI diffusion indexes, but production and export have a negative impact on the rest of the PMI diffusion index.
    Reference: 1. Dickey, D. A & W.A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the estimation for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
    2. Granger, C.(1969), “Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral methods”, Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
    3. Granger, C. & Newbold, P. (1974), “Spurious regression in econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
    4. Said, S. E. & Dickey, D. A. (1984), “Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order”, Biometrika. 71(3), 599-607.
    5. 吳中書(2012)。《台灣採購經理人指數(PMI)之編製研究》,行政院經濟建設委員會。
    6. 李彥瑩(2013)。《台灣景氣指標與台灣股價指數關聯性之探討-以電子類指數為例》,國立中正大學財務金融學系碩士論文。
    7. 林彥豪(2015)。《油價、ISM製造業指數、消費者信心指數、股價及實質生產之研究》,國立台灣大學經濟學研究所碩士論文。
    8. 黃子恒(2013)。《製造業採購經理人指數與總體經濟變數之關聯性研究-以美國為例》,國立中正大學經濟學系碩士論文。
    9. 陳旭昇(2013)。《時間序列分析-總體經濟與財務金融之應用二版》,東華書局。
    10. 陳建和(2014)。《製造業採購經理人指數PMI與股價指數之關聯性研究-以中國為例》,國立逢甲大學金融碩士在職專班碩士論文。
    11. 陳怡君(2014)。《台灣及其主要貿易對手國製造業PMI關係之研究》,國立高雄應用科技大學國際企業碩士在職專班碩士論文。
    12. 蔡佩芬(2017)。《PMI擴散指數與臺灣加權發行量股價指數關聯性之探討》,國立中正大學財務金融學系在職專班碩士論文。
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    金融學系
    107352019
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107352019
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202001203
    Appears in Collections:[金融學系] 學位論文

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