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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/88355


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/88355


    題名: 來華觀光旅客需求預測模式建立之研究
    Construction of Forecasting Models for Tourists Coming to R.O.C.
    作者: 時巧煒
    Shih, Chiao Wei
    貢獻者: 鄭天澤
    Cheng, Tien Tse
    時巧煒
    Shih, Chiao Wei
    關鍵詞: 觀光事業
    預測模式
    時間序列模式
    計量經濟模式
    Tourism Industry
    Forecasting Model
    Time Series Model
    Econometric Model
    日期: 1994
    1993
    上傳時間: 2016-04-29 15:30:55 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 觀光事業素有無煙囪工業之稱，自政府於民國四十八年全力推動發展以來
    參考文獻: 行政院主計處(民82-83),國民經濟動向統計季報.
    行政院主計處(民69-82),中華民國統計月報.
    交通部觀光局(民69-83),觀光資料.
    吳柏林等(民81),”台灣地區外籍觀光旅客人數預測模式之探討”,第二屆統計模
    式與預測系列演講,政大應數所.
    徐守德,李鎮旗(民83),”企業銷售預測之方法與實證研究-以台電公司為例”,管
    理評論,第13卷,第一期,23-56.
    陳敦基(民80),"來華觀光旅客之需求特性與時間序列分析”,民國80年觀光事業
    發展學術研討會論文集.
    陳敦基(民82),來華與出國觀光旅客人數預測模式建立之研究,交通部,
    觀光局委託研究報告.


    Abraham, B. and Ledolter, J. (1983), Statistical Methods for Forecasting, New York: John Wiley.
    Brown, R. G. (1962), Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
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    Martin, C.A. and Witt, S. F. (1989b), “Accurary of Econometric Forecasts of Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 16, 407-428.
    Neter, J., Wasserman, W. and Kutner, M. H. (1985), Applied linear statistical models, 2nd ed, USA: Richard D. Irwin, Inc.
    SAS Institute, Inc. (1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Cary, NC.
    SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/STAT User’s Guide, Cary, NC.
    Sheldon, P. J. and Var, T. (1985), “Tourism forecasting:A Review of Empirical Research”, Journal of Forecasting, 4(2), 183-195.
    Uysal, M. and Crompton, J. L. (1984), “Determinants of Demand for International Tourist Flows to Turkey”, Tourism Management, 5(4), 288-297.
    Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York:Academic Press, Inc.
    Wei, Willian. W. S. (1990), Time Series Analysis-Univariate and Multivariate Methods, New York : Addison-Wesley.
    Witt, C. A. and Witt, S. F. (1990), “Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
    Witt, S.F. and Martin, C. A. (1987), “Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(4), 23-30.
    Witt, S.F., Newbould, G.D. and Watkins, A.J. (1992), “Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand: Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data”, Journal of Travel research, 36-41.
    Witt, S.F. and Witt, C. A. (1991), “Tourism Forecasting: Error Magnitude, Direction of Change Error, and Trend Change Error”, Journal of Travel Research, 30(3), 26-33.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計學系
    81354008
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003823
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[統計學系] 學位論文

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