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Title:	來華觀光旅客需求預測模式建立之研究 Construction of Forecasting Models for Tourists Coming to R.O.C.
Authors:	時巧煒 Shih, Chiao Wei
Contributors:	鄭天澤 Cheng, Tien Tse 時巧煒 Shih, Chiao Wei
Keywords:	觀光事業預測模式時間序列模式計量經濟模式 Tourism Industry Forecasting Model Time Series Model Econometric Model
Date:	1994 1993
Issue Date:	2016-04-29 15:30:55 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	觀光事業素有無煙囪工業之稱，自政府於民國四十八年全力推動發展以來
Reference:	行政院主計處(民82-83),國民經濟動向統計季報. 行政院主計處(民69-82),中華民國統計月報. 交通部觀光局(民69-83),觀光資料. 吳柏林等(民81),”台灣地區外籍觀光旅客人數預測模式之探討”,第二屆統計模式與預測系列演講,政大應數所. 徐守德,李鎮旗(民83),”企業銷售預測之方法與實證研究-以台電公司為例”,管理評論,第13卷,第一期,23-56. 陳敦基(民80),"來華觀光旅客之需求特性與時間序列分析”,民國80年觀光事業發展學術研討會論文集. 陳敦基(民82),來華與出國觀光旅客人數預測模式建立之研究,交通部, 觀光局委託研究報告. Abraham, B. and Ledolter, J. (1983), Statistical Methods for Forecasting, New York: John Wiley. Brown, R. G. (1962), Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Series, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Calantone, R.J., Di Benedetto, C.A. and Bojanic,D.(1987),”A Comprehensive Review of The Tourism Forecasting Literature”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(3), 28-39. Cryer, J. D. (1987), Time Series Analysis, 1st ed, Boston: Duxbury Press. Fritz, R. G., Brandon C. and Xander, J. (1984), “Combining Time-Series and Econometric Forecast of Tourism Activity”, Annals of Tourism Research, 11, 219-229. Madansky, A. (1988), Prescriptions for working Statisticians, New York: Spring-Verlag. Makridakis, S. and Winkler, R. L. (1983), “Average of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results”, Management Science, 29(9), 987-996. Martin, C. A. and Witt, S. F. (1988), “Substitute Prices in Models of Tourism Dmand”,Annals of Tourism Research, 15, 255-268. Martin, C.A. and Witt, S.F. (1989a), “Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Comparison of the Accurary of Several Quantitative Methods”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5, 7-19. Martin, C.A. and Witt, S. F. (1989b), “Accurary of Econometric Forecasts of Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 16, 407-428. Neter, J., Wasserman, W. and Kutner, M. H. (1985), Applied linear statistical models, 2nd ed, USA: Richard D. Irwin, Inc. SAS Institute, Inc. (1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Cary, NC. SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/STAT User’s Guide, Cary, NC. Sheldon, P. J. and Var, T. (1985), “Tourism forecasting:A Review of Empirical Research”, Journal of Forecasting, 4(2), 183-195. Uysal, M. and Crompton, J. L. (1984), “Determinants of Demand for International Tourist Flows to Turkey”, Tourism Management, 5(4), 288-297. Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York:Academic Press, Inc. Wei, Willian. W. S. (1990), Time Series Analysis-Univariate and Multivariate Methods, New York : Addison-Wesley. Witt, C. A. and Witt, S. F. (1990), “Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34. Witt, S.F. and Martin, C. A. (1987), “Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(4), 23-30. Witt, S.F., Newbould, G.D. and Watkins, A.J. (1992), “Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand: Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data”, Journal of Travel research, 36-41. Witt, S.F. and Witt, C. A. (1991), “Tourism Forecasting: Error Magnitude, Direction of Change Error, and Trend Change Error”, Journal of Travel Research, 30(3), 26-33.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學統計學系 81354008
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003823
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Statistics] Theses

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