| Reference: | 中文專書
[1] 陳義彥，2001。《民意調查》。台北：五南。
[2] 陳義彥、黃紀、洪永泰、盛杏湲、游清鑫、鄭夙芬、陳陸輝、蔡佳泓合著，2009。《民意調查新論》。台北：五南。
[3] 童振源、池秉聰、戴中擎、葉家興、杜映磊，2013。《國寶人壽登峰造極創意市場計畫結案報告》。
中文譯著
[1] Alex F. Osborn著，師範譯，2004。《實用想像學》(Applied Imagination)。台北市：文藝生活書房。
[2] James Surowiecki著，楊玉齡譯，2005。《群眾的智慧：如何讓個人、 團隊、企業與社會變得更聰明》(The Wisdom of Crowd)。台北：遠流。
[3] Juanita Brown and David Isaacs著，高子梅譯，2007。《世界咖啡館》(The World Cafe: shaping our futures through conversations that matter)。台北市：臉譜出版社。
[4] Peter M. Senge著，郭進隆譯，1994。《第五項修煉：學習型組織的藝術與實務》(The Fifth Discipline―The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization)。台北市：天下文化。
[5] Peter Miller著，林俊宏譯，2010。《群的智慧─向螞蟻、蜜蜂、飛鳥學習組織運作絕技》(The Smart Swarm:How Understanding Flocks, Schools, and Colonies Can Make Us Better at Communicating, Decision Making, and Getting Things Done)。台北：天下文化。
[6] Richard J. Crisp and Rhiannon N. Turner著，李政賢譯，2009。《社會心理學》(Social Psychology)。台北市：五南。
[7] Wolfgang Donsbach and Michael W. Traugott著，國家教育研究院主譯，楊雅婷、梁書寧、楊濟鶴譯，2012。《民意與民調研究》。新北市：韋伯文化國際。
期刊論文
[1] 曾玠郡、王孫崇和李世炳，2008年6月。〈從選舉預測到經濟物理學實驗－談臺灣政治期貨交易中心之演進〉，《物理雙月刊》，30卷3期，頁265-268。
網際網路
[1] 未來事件交易所。< http://xfuture.org/>最後瀏覽日：2013/12/15。
[2] 林欣靜，2010。〈「未來事件交易所」成交未來〉，《光華雜誌》，頁46-56。<http://www.taiwan-panorama.com/show_issue.php?id=201089908046c.txt&table1=1&cur_page=8&distype=>最後瀏覽日：2013/09/15。
[3] 保險業公開資訊觀測站。<http://ins-info.ib.gov.tw/>最後瀏覽日：2013/12/13。
[4] 財團法人保險事業發展中心。<http://www.tii.org.tw/index.asp>最後瀏覽日：2013/12/13。
[5] 國寶人壽企業網站。<http://web2.globallife.com.tw/>最後瀏覽日：2013/12/14
[6] 譚瑾瑜，2013．ECFA第二階段降稅成果及ECFA後續談判的發展。<http://www.npf.org.tw/post/2/12018>最後瀏覽日：2013/12/15。
官方文件
[1] 行政院衛生署疾病管制局99 年度科技研究發展計畫，2010/12/20。〈以預測市場理論建構傳染病預測模式研究報告〉。
英文專書
[1] Philip E. Tetlock, 2006. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton: Princeton University Press.
英文期刊論文
[1] Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, and Bernd Skiera, 2007. “Creating and Evaluating New Product Ideas with Idea Markets.” Produktinnovation mit.
[2] Arina Soukhoroukova, Martin Spann, and Bernd Skiera, 2012. “Sourcing, Filtering, and Evaluating New Product Ideas: An Empirical Exploration of the Performance of Idea Markets,” Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 100–112.
[3] Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz, 2009. “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google,” Auctions, Market Mechanisms and Their Applications, Vol. 14.
[4] Brain Spears, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett and Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy, 2009. “Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE`s Imagination Markets,” Journal of Prediction Market, Vol. 3, pp. 17-39.
[5] Charles F. Manski, 2006. “Interpreting The Prediction of Prediction Markets,” Economic Letters, Vol. 91, Issue 3, pp. 425-429.
[6] Chia-Chien Hsu, and Brian A. Sandford, 2007. “The Delphi Technique: Making Sense Of Consensus,” Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, Vol. 12, No. 10, pp.1.
[7] Christina Ann LaComb, Janet Arlie Barnett, and Qimei Pan, 2007. “The imagination market,” Information Systems Frontiers, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp.245-256.
[8] David M. Pennock, Steve Lawrence, C. Lee Giles, and Finn Arup Nielsen, 2001. “The power of play: Efficiency and forecast accuracy in web market games,” NEC Research Institute Technical Report.
[9] Efthimios Bothos, Dimitris Apostolou, and Gregoris Mentzas, 2009. “ IDEM:A Prediction Market for Idea Management,” Designing E-Business Systems. Markets, Services, and Networks, Vol. 22, pp. 1-13.
[10] Efthimios Bothos, Dimitris Apostolou, and Gregoris Mentzas, 2009. “Collective intelligence for idea management with Internet-based information aggregation market,” Internet Research, Vol. 19, No. 1, pp.26-41.
[11] Ely Dahan, Arina Soukhoroukova, and Martin Spann, 2010. “New Product Development 2.0: Preference Markets—How Scalable Securities Markets Identify Winning Product Concepts and Attributes.”Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 27, No. 7, pp. 937–954.
[12] Eugene F. Fama, 1991. “Efficient Capital Markets:Ⅱ,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 66, pp.1575-1617.
[13] Harlan J. Strauss and L. Harmon Zeigler, 1975. “The Delphi Technique and Its Uses In Social Research,” Journal of Creative Behavior, pp.253-259.
[14] J.Scott Armstrong, 1980. “Seer-Sucker Theory：The Value of Expert in Forecasting,” Technology Review, pp. 16-24.
[15] Jay F. Nunamaker, Robert O. Briggs, Daniel D. Mittleman, Douglas R. Vogel, and Pierre A. Balthazard, 1996. "Lessons from a Dozen Years of Group Support Systems Research: A Discussion of Lab and Field Findings", Journal of Management Information Systems, Vol. 13, No. 3, pp. 163–207.
[16] Jillian M. Hender, Thomas L. Rodgers, Douglas L. Dean, and Jay F. Nunamaker, Jr., 2001. “Improving Group Creativity: Brainstorming Versus Non-brainstorming Techniques in a GSS Environment,” Proceedings of the 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, Vol.1.
[17] Jim Lavoie, 2009. “The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO,” Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 1-11.
[18] Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. “Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities,” NBER Working Paper, No. 12200.
[19] Kay-Yut, Chen and Charles Plott, 2002. “Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem.” Social Science Working Paper, No. 1131.
[20] Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Andreas Graefe, 2007. “Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared,” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, pp. 17-20.
[21] Marco Ottaviani, 2009. “The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective,” Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 41-44.
[22] Marion Kristin Poetz and Martin Schreier, 2012. “The Value of Crowdsourcing: Can Users Really Compete with Professionals in Generating New Product Ideas?” Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 245-256.
[23] Michael Diehl and Wolfgang Strpebe, 1997. “Productivity Loss In Brainstorming Groups: Toward the Solution of a Riddle,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 53, No. 3, pp. 497-509.
[24] Muammer Ozer, 2005. “Factors which influence decision making in new product evaluation,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.163, pp.784-801.
[25] Olivier Toubia, 2006. “Idea Generation, Creativity, and Incentives,” Marketing Science, Vol. 25, No. 5, pp.411-425.
[26] Philip M. Polgreen, Forrest D. Nelson, and George R. Neumann, 2007. “Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity,” Oxford Journals, pp.272-279.
[27] R. Brent Gallupe, Alan R. Dennis, William H. Cooper, Joseph S. Valacich, Lana M. Bastianutti, and Jay F. Nunamaker, Jr., 1992. “Electronic Brainstorming and Group Size,” The Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 35, No. 2, pp. 350-369.
[28] Robert Eisenberger, Frances Haskins and Paul Gambleton, 1999. “Promised Reward and Creativity: Effects of Prior Experience,” Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 35, No. 3, pp. 308–325.
[29] Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea, “A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy.” Economica, Vol. 76, Issue 302, Apr. 2009, pp. 304-314.
[30] Rowe Gene and Wright George, 1999. “The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.15, No. 4, pp.353-375.
[31] Steven G. Kou and Michael E. Sobel, 2004. “Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls.” Political Analysis, Vol.12, No. 3, pp. 277-295.
[32] Teresa M. Amabile, Regina Conti, Heather Coon, Jeffrey Lazenby and Michael Herron, 1996. “Assessing the Work Environment for Creativity,” The Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 39, No. 5, pp. 1154-1184.
[33] Wolfers and Zitzewitz, 2004. “Prediction Markets,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 107-126.
英文網際網路
[1] Gary Stix, 2008/02/04. “Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls,” Scientific American Magazine, <http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=markets-predict-outco me-better-than-polls>.最後瀏覽日：2013/08/07
[2] Harold A. Linstone, and Murray Turoff, 2002. “The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications,” <http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/>.最後瀏覽日：2013/09/05
[3] Hollywood Stock Exchange, <http://www.hsx.com/>.最後瀏覽日：2013/08/15
[4] IDEM: Idea Market, <http://imu.ntua.gr/software/idem-idea-market>.最後瀏覽日：2013/08/15
[5] Jim Lavoie, 2010/04/08, “Nobody’s as Smart as Everybody—Unleashing Individual Brilliance and Aligning Collective Genius,” Management Innovation eXchange, <http://www.managementexchange.com/story/nobody%E2%80%99s-smart-everybody-unleashing-quiet-genius-inside-organization>.最後瀏覽日：2013/08/11
[6] John Howkins, “The Creative Economy: An Economy of Failure?” TEDxTalks, <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQqji_CzogY>.最後瀏覽日：2013/08/20
[7] Trudi Lang, “An Overview of Four Futures Methodologies,” <http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/publications/half-fried-ideas/J7/LANG.pdf>.最後瀏覽日：2013/08/20
[8] WIKIPEDIA, Efficient-market hypothesis <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis>.最後瀏覽日：2013/08/07 |
