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| Title: | 美國對北韓政策之研究（2001-2011年）：以行動戰略理論分析
U.S. Policy toward North Korea(2001-2011): Analysis of Andre Beaufre`s Strategy of Action |
| Authors: | 黃柏愷
Huang, Bo Kai |
| Contributors: | 盧業中
Lu, Yeh Chung
黃柏愷
Huang, Bo Kai |
| Keywords: | 小布希
歐巴馬
北韓政策
行動戰略
George W. Bush
Barack Obama
the U.S. policy toward North Korea |
| Date: | 2012 |
| Issue Date: | 2013-01-02 13:41:53 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 北韓問題是二十世紀延續至今卻始終未能解決的複雜議題，這是因為牽涉的因素眾多：南北韓、周邊國家以及國際的考量使「維持現狀」與「模糊」政策成為處理北韓問題可以接受的模式。但事實上，吾人必須認知到在此議題上，最重要的主角仍是北韓與美國，但顯然雙方各有盤算而不能或不願直接解決。因此本文旨在探討2001至2011年美國對北韓之政策，且嘗試在現今相關領域的多數美國立場中，盡可能尋求以相對公允、同理心的角度分析問題，而非美國觀點的一言堂。本文以法國戰略學家薄富爾(André Beaufre)之「行動戰略」(Strategy of Action) 理論作為研究途徑，輔以大量相關數據資料及專著，用意在於平衡地討論美國戰略並批判其中好壞。
本文認為，小布希與歐巴馬政府對北韓政策目標一致，但戰略有所不同。受制於北韓核報復攻擊、中東戰事、經濟與他國因素，美國難以動武直取北韓，因此必須從軍事外的選項著手。筆者從軍事、政治、經濟與外交面向，以政治診斷(political diagnosis)及戰略診斷(strategic diagnosis)探討兩屆政府對北韓之行動方案。小布希和歐巴馬政府在戰略應用上符合薄富爾的觀點，但在架構面上卻有缺失，最終由於無法促使中國相助，以及自身立場的謬誤，導致兩屆政府北韓政策之失誤。
The North Korea issue remains unresolved, and the only acceptable options for the neighbor countries are the status quo policy and the policy of deliberate ambiguity. However, it has to be acknowledged that the most important roles are North Korea and the U.S., and it is obvious they have different plans in their minds.
The main idea of this thesis is to study the U.S. Policy toward North Korea (2001-2011), and present unbiased points of view instead of only the U.S. aspect. This thesis uses the Strategy of Action of André Beaufre, a French Strategist, as the research method, to analyze data and studies to fairly find out the pros and cons of the U.S. Policy toward North Korea.
This thesis shows that the George W. Bush administration and the Obama administration share the same goals but different strategies toward North Korea. The U.S. have difficulty in using military action since it tries to avoid North Korea taking nuclear retaliation, and the war in the middle east and the sinking economy also limit the ability of the U.S. government. This thesis analyzes the U.S. policy toward North Korea from the aspects of military power, politics, economy and diplomacy, and it uses political diagnosis and strategic diagnosis as the approaches to examine the action plans of both Bush and Obama administrations. The research shows that the actions plans match the point of view of André Beaufre strategically, but the flaws of the plan structure, the failure to have China take a stance against North Korea and the illogicalness of the government position finally led the U.S. policy toward North Korea to a frustrated end. |
| Reference: | 壹、官方文件
一、中文
1.〈中華人民共和國和朝鮮民主主義人民共和國友好合作互助條約〉
2.〈聯合國安理會主席聲明2010年第13號〉
3.〈俄羅斯與朝鮮民主主義人民共和國睦鄰友好合作條約〉
4.〈第四輪六方會談共同聲明〉
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貳、專書
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二、英文
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29.Myers, B. R. The Cleanest Race: How North Koreans See Themselves and Why It Matters, Brooklyn, N. Y.: Melville House, 2010.
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參、期刊文章與專論
一、中文
1.巨克毅，〈當前美國的東亞戰略分析〉，《全球政治評論》，第21期（2008年）。
2.朱松柏，〈北韓的飛彈外交與亞太安全〉，《問題與研究》，第39卷第2期（2000年2月）。
3.朱鋒，〈六方會談：「朝核問題」還是「朝鮮問題」？〉，《國際政治研究》，2005年第3期（2005年8月）。
4.朱鋒，〈第四輪六方會談後的朝核問題：新前景、老問題〉，《現代國際關係》，2005年第10期。
5.李大中，〈歐巴馬政府之東北亞政策分析〉，《全球政治評論》，第三十一期（2010年7月）。
6.李明，〈天安艦沉沒事件牽動東北亞國際政治〉，《海峽評論》，第235期（2010年7月1日）。
7.李明，〈南北韓爆發黃海軍事衝突與影響〉，《海峽評論》，第241期（2011年1月1日）。
8.李枏，〈布什政府對朝關係戰略評估〉，《當代亞太》，2009年第3期。
9.〔韓〕李庚嬉，〈延坪島炮擊事件與3+3東北亞權力結構〉，《海峽評論》，第241期（2011年1月1日）。
10.〔韓〕李南周著，肖偉山譯，〈朝核問題的發展與東北亞的和平〉，收入《讀書》雜誌編，《亞洲的病理》，北京：生活．讀書．新知三聯書店，2007。
11.李開盛，〈軍事存在與無核化：美國朝核政策淺析〉，《美國研究》，2009年第4期。
12.沈志華，〈「唇齒相依」還是「政治聯姻」？－－中朝同盟的建立及其延續(1946-1961)〉，《中央研究院近代史研究所集刊》，第63期（2009年3月）。
13.沈志華，〈朝鮮戰爭初期蘇中朝三角同盟的形成：以中俄解密檔案為基礎的研究〉，《國立政治大學歷史學報》，第31期（2009年5月）。
14.宋燕輝，〈「防擴散安全倡議」下臺日合作之促進〉，《臺灣國際法季刊》，第5卷第1期（2008年3月）。
15.林文謙，〈調解者與北韓核武危機〉，《東亞研究》，第42卷第1期（2011年1月）。
16.吳心伯，〈論奧巴馬政府的亞太戰略〉，《國際問題研究》，2012年第2期。
17.門洪華，〈美國外交中的文化價值觀因素〉，《政治問題專論》，2001年第5期。
18.門洪華，〈東北亞安全困境及其戰略應對〉，收入劉建飛、劉麗華主編，《同舟共濟：東北亞安全與合作》，北京：九州，2009。
19.金強一，〈中美日東北亞戰略框架之中的朝鮮半島問題：朝鮮半島問題與東北亞大國戰略指向關聯的研究〉，《東疆學刊》，第25卷第3期（2008年7月）。
20.紀舜傑，〈韓國民主化與國家認同－－美國、核武、與統一〉，《臺灣國際研究季刊》，第6卷第4期（2010年）。
21.秋山昌廣著，李卓譯，〈日美中安全對話的可能性〉，收入王緝思主編，《中國國際戰略評論2009》，北京：世界知識，2009。
22.姚鴻成，〈從金正日逝世分析北韓之經濟及南北韓之交易概況〉，《全球工商》月刊，第646期（2012年1月）。
23.查默斯．約翰遜(Chalmers Johnson)著，周勤譯，〈接受中國的崛起〉，收入《讀書》雜誌編，《亞洲的病理》，北京：生活．讀書．新知三聯書店，2007。
24.游智偉、洪銘德，〈中國東北亞安全政策的本質與目的：以六方會談為例〉，《東亞研究》第41卷第1期（2010年1月）。
25.楊永明，〈美國亞太戰略之理論分析〉，《美歐季刊》，第12卷第3期（1997年）。
26.楊永明，〈日本有關北韓問題之政策與因應策略〉，行政院國家科學委員會專題計劃成果報告，臺北：行政院國科會，2005年10月3日。
27.趙國材，〈美、日安保條約體系下之非作戰軍事行動〉，收入胡春惠、宋成有編，《東北亞發展的回顧與展望國際學術討論會論文選》，臺北：正中，2003。
28.劉俊波，〈從「戰略忍耐」看奧巴馬的對朝戰略〉，《國際問題研究》，2010年第6期。
29.劉俊波，〈2010朝核形勢評估〉，收入中國國際問題研究所軍控與國際安全研究中心編，《全球核態勢評估報告（2010/2011）》，北京：時事，2011。
30.劉德海，〈後冷戰時代北韓的戰略外交、外交戰略及其對東北亞的影響〉，《戰略與國際研究》，第1卷第2期（1999年4月）。
31.蔡政修，〈九一一事件後的美國國家安全戰略：以波灣戰爭與北韓核子危機為例〉，《問題與研究》，第43卷第6期（2004年11、12月）。
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33.戴政龍，〈歐巴馬政府的核外交與核戰略〉，《全球政治評論》，第三十八期（2012年4月）。
34.〔韓〕權萬學著，馬妍譯，〈東亞與美國關係的政治經濟學分析〉，收入黃大慧主編，《變化中的東亞與美國：東亞的崛起及其秩序建構》，北京：社會科學文獻，2010。
二、英文
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肆、學位論文
一、中文
1.孫弘鑫，〈美國柯林頓政府的朝鮮半島安全政策：從薄富爾的「行動戰略理論」分析〉，臺北：國立政治大學外交學系研究所碩士論文，2005。
2.崔進揆，〈冷戰後強制外交在國際衝突的運用〉，臺北：國立政治大學外交學系研究所碩士論文，2006。
3.常鳳臺，〈薄富爾戰略思想之研究〉，臺北：淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士論文，2004。
二、英文
1.Jemelka, Spencer Robert. “Sanctions against North Korea and Burma: Chinese Preconditions and American Dispositions,” Department of Diplomacy National Cheng Chi University Master Thesis, January 2011. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交研究所
97253034
101 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0972530341 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [外交學系] 學位論文
|
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