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    题名: 美國對北韓政策之研究（2001-2011年）：以行動戰略理論分析
    U.S. Policy toward North Korea(2001-2011): Analysis of Andre Beaufre`s Strategy of Action
    作者: 黃柏愷
    Huang, Bo Kai
    贡献者: 盧業中
    Lu, Yeh Chung
    黃柏愷
    Huang, Bo Kai
    关键词: 小布希
    歐巴馬
    北韓政策
    行動戰略
    George W. Bush
    Barack Obama
    the U.S. policy toward North Korea
    日期: 2012
    上传时间: 2013-01-02 13:41:53 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 北韓問題是二十世紀延續至今卻始終未能解決的複雜議題，這是因為牽涉的因素眾多：南北韓、周邊國家以及國際的考量使「維持現狀」與「模糊」政策成為處理北韓問題可以接受的模式。但事實上，吾人必須認知到在此議題上，最重要的主角仍是北韓與美國，但顯然雙方各有盤算而不能或不願直接解決。因此本文旨在探討2001至2011年美國對北韓之政策，且嘗試在現今相關領域的多數美國立場中，盡可能尋求以相對公允、同理心的角度分析問題，而非美國觀點的一言堂。本文以法國戰略學家薄富爾(André Beaufre)之「行動戰略」(Strategy of Action) 理論作為研究途徑，輔以大量相關數據資料及專著，用意在於平衡地討論美國戰略並批判其中好壞。

    本文認為，小布希與歐巴馬政府對北韓政策目標一致，但戰略有所不同。受制於北韓核報復攻擊、中東戰事、經濟與他國因素，美國難以動武直取北韓，因此必須從軍事外的選項著手。筆者從軍事、政治、經濟與外交面向，以政治診斷(political diagnosis)及戰略診斷(strategic diagnosis)探討兩屆政府對北韓之行動方案。小布希和歐巴馬政府在戰略應用上符合薄富爾的觀點，但在架構面上卻有缺失，最終由於無法促使中國相助，以及自身立場的謬誤，導致兩屆政府北韓政策之失誤。
    The North Korea issue remains unresolved, and the only acceptable options for the neighbor countries are the status quo policy and the policy of deliberate ambiguity. However, it has to be acknowledged that the most important roles are North Korea and the U.S., and it is obvious they have different plans in their minds.

    The main idea of this thesis is to study the U.S. Policy toward North Korea (2001-2011), and present unbiased points of view instead of only the U.S. aspect. This thesis uses the Strategy of Action of André Beaufre, a French Strategist, as the research method, to analyze data and studies to fairly find out the pros and cons of the U.S. Policy toward North Korea.

    This thesis shows that the George W. Bush administration and the Obama administration share the same goals but different strategies toward North Korea. The U.S. have difficulty in using military action since it tries to avoid North Korea taking nuclear retaliation, and the war in the middle east and the sinking economy also limit the ability of the U.S. government. This thesis analyzes the U.S. policy toward North Korea from the aspects of military power, politics, economy and diplomacy, and it uses political diagnosis and strategic diagnosis as the approaches to examine the action plans of both Bush and Obama administrations. The research shows that the actions plans match the point of view of André Beaufre strategically, but the flaws of the plan structure, the failure to have China take a stance against North Korea and the illogicalness of the government position finally led the U.S. policy toward North Korea to a frustrated end.
    參考文獻: 壹、官方文件

    一、中文
    1.〈中華人民共和國和朝鮮民主主義人民共和國友好合作互助條約〉
    2.〈聯合國安理會主席聲明2010年第13號〉
    3.〈俄羅斯與朝鮮民主主義人民共和國睦鄰友好合作條約〉
    4.〈第四輪六方會談共同聲明〉

    二、英文
    1.Department of Defense, United States of America, “Active Duty Military Personnel Strengths by Regional and by Country,” March 31, 2008.
    2.Department of Defense, United States of America, Nuclear Posture Review Report, April 2010.
    3.“North East Asia Vital to U. S. Regional and Global Interests: State’s Hill Cites Critical Challenges and Opportunities in the Region,” May 26, 2005, http://wfile.ait.org.tw/wf-archive/2005/050526/epf413.htm.
    4.Nuclear Security Summit, Communiqué of the Washington Nuclear Security Summit, April 13, 2010.
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    11.Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, April 8, 2010.
    12.United Nations Security Council, Report of the Panel of Experts established pursuant to resolution 1874 (2009), November 5, 2010.
    13.United Nations Security Council, Resolution 1874 (2009), June 12, 2009.
    14.United Nations Security Council, Resolution 1718 (2006), October 14, 2006.

    貳、專書

    一、中文
    1.中國國際問題研究所軍控與國際安全研究中心編，《全球核態勢評估報告（2010/2011）》，北京：時事，2011。
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    3.王玉民，《社會科學研究方法原理》，臺北：洪葉，1994。
    4.王世宗，《古代文明的開展：文明絕對價值的尋求》，臺北：三民，2004。
    5.王世宗，《現代世界的形成：文明終極意義的探求》，臺北：三民，2008，修訂二版。
    6.王帆，《美國的亞太聯盟》，北京：世界知識，2007。
    7.王緝思主編，《中國國際戰略評論2009》，北京：世界知識，2009。
    8.卡里札德(Zalmay Khalizad)等合著，國防部史政編譯局譯，《美國與亞洲》(The United States and Asia: Toward a New Strategy and Force Posture)，臺北：國防部史政編譯局，2001。
    9.朱立熙，《韓國史：悲劇的循環與宿命》，臺北：三民，2008，增訂二版。
    10.朱浤源主編，《撰寫博碩士論文實戰手册》，臺北：正中，1999。
    11.李明，《南北韓政經發展與東北亞安全》，臺北：五南，1998。
    12.李枏，《現當代西方大戰略理論探究》，北京：世界知識，2009。
    13.〔韓〕李庚嬉，《怎麼看北韓核武危機》，臺北：文英堂，2008。
    14.李德哈特(Liddell-Hart)著，鈕先鍾譯，《戰略論：間接路線》(Strategy: The Indirect Approach)，臺北：麥田，2007。
    15.林立樹，《美國文化史：民主與平等》，臺北：五南，2005。
    16.R. R. 帕爾默(R. R. Palmer)著，喬．柯爾頓(Joel Colton)、勞埃德．克萊默(Lloyd Kramer)修訂，董正華、陳少衡、牛可等譯，《現代世界史：1870年起（插圖第10版）》(A History of the Modern World, 10e)，北京：世界圖書，2009。
    17.金重遠、馮瑋、李東海，《世界現當代史》，上海：復旦大學，2004。
    18.吳心伯，《太平洋上不太平：後冷戰時代的美國亞太安全戰略》，上海：復旦大學，2006。
    19.周煦，《冷戰後美國的東亞政策(1989-1997)》，臺北：生智，1998。
    20.胡春惠、宋成有編，《東北亞發展的回顧與展望國際學術討論會論文選》，臺北：正中，2003。
    21.〔韓〕姜哲煥、皮耶．李古樂(Pierre Rigoulot)著，鍾玉玨譯，《平壤水族館：我在北韓古拉格的十年》(LES AQUARIUMS DE PYONGYANG: Dix Ans Au Goulag Nord-Coréen)，台北：衛城，2012。
    22.柳惠千，《21世紀美軍在東亞的戰略部署》，臺北：高手專業，2008。
    23.華慶昭，《從雅爾塔到板門店》，北京：中國社會科學，1992。
    24.高崇雲，《中共與南北韓關係的研究》，臺北：正中，1989。
    25.黃大慧主編，《變化中的東亞與美國：東亞的崛起及其秩序建構》，北京：社會科學文獻，2010。
    26.張小明，《美國與東亞關係導論》，北京：北京大學，2011。
    27.張淑雅，《韓戰救臺灣？解讀美國對臺政策》，臺北：衛城，2011。
    28.鈕先鍾，《戰略研究入門》，臺北：麥田，1998。
    29.劉建飛、劉麗華主編，《同舟共濟：東北亞安全與合作》，北京：九州，2009。
    30.葉至誠，《社會科學概論》，臺北：揚智文化，2000。
    31.蔡東杰，《東亞區域發展的政治經濟學》，臺北：五南，2007。
    32.蔡明彥，《21世紀美國東亞戰略與美日中安全關係》，臺北：鼎茂圖書，2008。
    33.霍布斯邦(Eric J. Hobsbawm)著，吳莉君譯，《霍布斯邦看21世紀：全球化、民主與恐怖主義》(Globalization, Democracy and Terrorism)，台北：麥田，2008。
    34.鍾倫納，《應用社會科學研究法》，香港：商務，1992。
    35.薄富爾(André Beaufre)著，鈕先鍾譯，《戰略緒論》，臺北：麥田，1996。
    36.藍普頓(David M. Lampton)著，計秋楓譯，《同床異夢：處理1989到2000年之中美外交》，香港：中文大學，2003。
    37.鐸木昌之著，胡慶山譯，《北朝鮮：社會主義與傳統的共鳴》，臺北：月旦，1994。
    38.《讀書》雜誌編，《亞洲的病理》，北京：生活．讀書．新知三聯書店，2007。

    二、英文
    1.Allison, Graham T. and Zelikow, Philip D. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2nd. ed., New York: Longman, 1999.
    2.Bader, Jeffrey A. Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy, Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institute, 2012.
    3.Beal, Tim. North Korea: The Struggle Against American Power, London: Pluto, 2005.
    4.Beaufre, André. translated by Major- General Barry, R. H. Strategy of Action, New York: Fredrick A. Praeger, 1967.
    5.Bush, George W. Decision Points, New York: Crown, 2010.
    6.Cha, Victor D. and Kang, David C. Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies, N. Y.: Columbia University Press, 2003.
    7.Clausewitz, Carl Von edited and translated by Howard, Michael and Paret, Peter. On War, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1984.
    8.Cumings, Bruce. Korea’s Place in the Sun: a Modern History, New York: W. W. Norton, 1997.
    9.Cumings, Bruce. North Korea: Another Country, New York: New Press, 2003.
    10.Demick, Barbara. Nothing to Envy: Ordinary Lives in North Korea, New York: Spiegel & Grau, 2009.
    11.Eberstadt, Nicholas. Korea Approaches Reunification, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1995.
    12.Eberstadt, Nicholas. The End of North Korea, Washington, D.C.: AEI Press, 1999.
    13.Eberstadt, Nicholas. The Korean Economy: Between Crisis and Catastrophe, New Jersey: Transaction Publisher, 2007.
    14.Ford, Glyn with Kwon, Soyoung. North Korea on the Brink: Struggle for Survival, London．Ann Arbor, MI: Pluto Press, 2008.
    15.Friedberg, Aaron L. A Contest for Supremacy: China, America, and the Struggle for Mastery in Asia, New York: W.W. Norton & Co., 2011.
    16.Gaddis, John Lewis. The Long Peace: Inquiries Into the History of the Cold War, New York: Oxford University Press, 1987.
    17.Haass, Richard N. The Opportunity: America’s Moment to Alter History’s Course, New York: Public Affairs, 2005.
    18.Ikenberry, John and Moon, Chun-In eds., The United States and Northeast Asia: Debates, Issues, and New Order, Lanham, Maryland: The Rowman & Little Publishing Group, Inc., 2008.
    19.Indyk, Martin S., Lieberthal, Kenneth G. and O’Hanlon, Michael E. Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy, Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institute, 2012.
    20.International Business Publication, US- Korea North: Political and Economic Relations Handbook, Washington, D.C.: International Business Publication, 2010.
    21.Jones, B., Forman, S. and Gowan, R. edited, Cooperating for Peace and Security: Evolving Institutions and Arrangements in a Context of Changing U.S. Security Policy, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
    22.Johnson, Chalmers. Blowback: The Cost and Consequences of American Empire, New York: Henry Holt, 2001.
    23.Kennedy, Paul. The Rise and Fall of the Great Power: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000, New York: Vintage Books, 1987.
    24.Kissinger, Henry. For the Record: Selected Statements, 1977-1980, Boston: Little, Brown & Company, 1981.
    25.Kissinger, Henry. Does America Need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2001.
    26.Krasner, Stephen edited, International Regimes, Ithaca: Cornell University, 1983.
    27.Mandelbaum, Michael. The Ideas that Conquered the World: Peace, Democracy, and Free Markets in the Twenty-First Century, New York: Public Affairs, 2002.
    28.Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, New York: Norton, 2001.
    29.Myers, B. R. The Cleanest Race: How North Koreans See Themselves and Why It Matters, Brooklyn, N. Y.: Melville House, 2010.
    30.Nye, Jr., Joseph S. and Welch, David A. Understanding Global Conflict and Cooperation: An Introduction to Theory and History, Boston: Longman, 2011, 8th edition.
    31.Paret, Peter, Craig, Gordon A. and Gilbert, Felix edited, Makers of Modern Strategy: from Machiavelli to the Nuclear Age, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1986.
    32.Pollack, Jonathan D. No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security, London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2011.
    33.Richardson, Sharon edited, Perspectives on U.S. Policy toward North Korea: Stalemate or Checkmate? , Lanham, Md.: Lexington Books, 2006.
    34.Rumsfeld, Donald. Known and Unknown: A Memoir, New York: Penguin Group, 2010.
    35.Shirk, Susan L. China– Fragile Superpower: How China’s Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise, New York: Oxford University, 2007.
    36.Skidmore, David. The Unilateralist Temptation in American Foreign Policy, New York: Routledge, 2011.
    37.Smith, Adam. The Theory of Moral Sentiments, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2002.
    38.Woodward, Bob. State of Denial, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2006.
    39.Woodward, Bob. Obama’s Wars, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010.

    參、期刊文章與專論

    一、中文
    1.巨克毅，〈當前美國的東亞戰略分析〉，《全球政治評論》，第21期（2008年）。
    2.朱松柏，〈北韓的飛彈外交與亞太安全〉，《問題與研究》，第39卷第2期（2000年2月）。
    3.朱鋒，〈六方會談：「朝核問題」還是「朝鮮問題」？〉，《國際政治研究》，2005年第3期（2005年8月）。
    4.朱鋒，〈第四輪六方會談後的朝核問題：新前景、老問題〉，《現代國際關係》，2005年第10期。
    5.李大中，〈歐巴馬政府之東北亞政策分析〉，《全球政治評論》，第三十一期（2010年7月）。
    6.李明，〈天安艦沉沒事件牽動東北亞國際政治〉，《海峽評論》，第235期（2010年7月1日）。
    7.李明，〈南北韓爆發黃海軍事衝突與影響〉，《海峽評論》，第241期（2011年1月1日）。
    8.李枏，〈布什政府對朝關係戰略評估〉，《當代亞太》，2009年第3期。
    9.〔韓〕李庚嬉，〈延坪島炮擊事件與3+3東北亞權力結構〉，《海峽評論》，第241期（2011年1月1日）。
    10.〔韓〕李南周著，肖偉山譯，〈朝核問題的發展與東北亞的和平〉，收入《讀書》雜誌編，《亞洲的病理》，北京：生活．讀書．新知三聯書店，2007。
    11.李開盛，〈軍事存在與無核化：美國朝核政策淺析〉，《美國研究》，2009年第4期。
    12.沈志華，〈「唇齒相依」還是「政治聯姻」？－－中朝同盟的建立及其延續(1946-1961)〉，《中央研究院近代史研究所集刊》，第63期（2009年3月）。
    13.沈志華，〈朝鮮戰爭初期蘇中朝三角同盟的形成：以中俄解密檔案為基礎的研究〉，《國立政治大學歷史學報》，第31期（2009年5月）。
    14.宋燕輝，〈「防擴散安全倡議」下臺日合作之促進〉，《臺灣國際法季刊》，第5卷第1期（2008年3月）。
    15.林文謙，〈調解者與北韓核武危機〉，《東亞研究》，第42卷第1期（2011年1月）。
    16.吳心伯，〈論奧巴馬政府的亞太戰略〉，《國際問題研究》，2012年第2期。
    17.門洪華，〈美國外交中的文化價值觀因素〉，《政治問題專論》，2001年第5期。
    18.門洪華，〈東北亞安全困境及其戰略應對〉，收入劉建飛、劉麗華主編，《同舟共濟：東北亞安全與合作》，北京：九州，2009。
    19.金強一，〈中美日東北亞戰略框架之中的朝鮮半島問題：朝鮮半島問題與東北亞大國戰略指向關聯的研究〉，《東疆學刊》，第25卷第3期（2008年7月）。
    20.紀舜傑，〈韓國民主化與國家認同－－美國、核武、與統一〉，《臺灣國際研究季刊》，第6卷第4期（2010年）。
    21.秋山昌廣著，李卓譯，〈日美中安全對話的可能性〉，收入王緝思主編，《中國國際戰略評論2009》，北京：世界知識，2009。
    22.姚鴻成，〈從金正日逝世分析北韓之經濟及南北韓之交易概況〉，《全球工商》月刊，第646期（2012年1月）。
    23.查默斯．約翰遜(Chalmers Johnson)著，周勤譯，〈接受中國的崛起〉，收入《讀書》雜誌編，《亞洲的病理》，北京：生活．讀書．新知三聯書店，2007。
    24.游智偉、洪銘德，〈中國東北亞安全政策的本質與目的：以六方會談為例〉，《東亞研究》第41卷第1期（2010年1月）。
    25.楊永明，〈美國亞太戰略之理論分析〉，《美歐季刊》，第12卷第3期（1997年）。
    26.楊永明，〈日本有關北韓問題之政策與因應策略〉，行政院國家科學委員會專題計劃成果報告，臺北：行政院國科會，2005年10月3日。
    27.趙國材，〈美、日安保條約體系下之非作戰軍事行動〉，收入胡春惠、宋成有編，《東北亞發展的回顧與展望國際學術討論會論文選》，臺北：正中，2003。
    28.劉俊波，〈從「戰略忍耐」看奧巴馬的對朝戰略〉，《國際問題研究》，2010年第6期。
    29.劉俊波，〈2010朝核形勢評估〉，收入中國國際問題研究所軍控與國際安全研究中心編，《全球核態勢評估報告（2010/2011）》，北京：時事，2011。
    30.劉德海，〈後冷戰時代北韓的戰略外交、外交戰略及其對東北亞的影響〉，《戰略與國際研究》，第1卷第2期（1999年4月）。
    31.蔡政修，〈九一一事件後的美國國家安全戰略：以波灣戰爭與北韓核子危機為例〉，《問題與研究》，第43卷第6期（2004年11、12月）。
    32.蔡增家，〈從新保守主義論述變遷中的日本防衛政策〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，第8卷第3期（2007年7月）。
    33.戴政龍，〈歐巴馬政府的核外交與核戰略〉，《全球政治評論》，第三十八期（2012年4月）。
    34.〔韓〕權萬學著，馬妍譯，〈東亞與美國關係的政治經濟學分析〉，收入黃大慧主編，《變化中的東亞與美國：東亞的崛起及其秩序建構》，北京：社會科學文獻，2010。

    二、英文
    1.Bandow, Doug. “The U.S. -South Korea Alliance: Outdated Unnecessary, and Dangerous,” Cato Institute, July 14, 2010, http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11965.
    2.Berry, Jr., William E. “The North Korean Nuclear Weapons Program: A Comparison of the Negotiating Strategies of the Clinton and Bush Administrations,” in Sharon Richardson edited, Perspectives on U.S. Policy toward North Korea: Stalemate or Checkmate? , Lanham, Md.: Lexington Books, 2006.
    3.Betts, Richard K. “The New Threat of Mass Destruction,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, No.1 (January/February 1998).
    4.Brodie, Bernard. “General André Beaufre on Strategy: A Review of Two Books,” The RAND Corporation, June 1965.
    5.Brzezinski, Zbigniew. “A Geostrategy of Eurasia,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 76, No. 5 (September/October 1997).
    6.Buszynski, Leszek. “Russia and North Korea: Dilemmas and Interests,” Asian Survey, Vol. XLIX, No. 5 (September/October 2009).
    7.Campbell, Kurt M. “Going Global: The Future of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance,” Center for a New American Security, February 2009.
    8.Cha, Victor D. “Winning Asia: Washington’s Untold Success Story,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 6 (November/December 2007).
    9.Chanlett-Avery, Emma. “North Korea: U.S. Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation,” CRS Report for Congress, January 17, 2012.
    10.Clinton, Hillary. “America`s Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy, 189 (November 2011).
    11.Covarrubias, Jaime García. “The Significance of Conventional Deterrence in Latin America,” Military Review, Mar/Apr 2004, 84:2.
    12.Cox, Michael. “American Power before and after 11 September: Dizzy with Success?” International Affairs, Vol. 78, No. 2 (2002).
    13.Cumings, Bruce. “The North Korea Problem: Dealing with Irrationality,” Current History, Vol. 108, Issue 719 (September 2009).
    14.Delpech, Thérèse. “Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century: Lessons from the Cold War for a New Era of Strategic Piracy,” The RAND Corporation, January 2012.
    15.Deng, Young. “Hegemony on the Offensive: Chinese Perspectives on US Global Strategy,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol.16, No.3 (2001).
    16.Drezner, Daniel W. “Does Obama Have a Grand Strategy? Why We Need Doctrines in Uncertain Times,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 4 (July/August 2011).
    17.Feffer, John. “U.S.-North Korea Relations,” Foreign Policy in Focus, Vol. 4, No. 15 (May 1999).
    18.Ferguson, Niall. “Dr. K`s Rx for China,” Newsweek, May 17, 2011, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/05/17/dr-krsquos-rx-for-china.html.
    19.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food Insecurity in the World: How Does International Price Volatility Affect Domestic Economies and Food Security? 2011.
    20.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Global Statistics Service - Food Security Indicators: Democratic People`s Republic of Korea,” September 11, 2011.
    21.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food Insecurity in the World: Addressing Food Insecurity Protracted Crises, 2010.
    22.Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food Insecurity in the World: High Food Prices and Food Security – Threats and Opportunities, 2008.
    23.Friedman, George. “The United States in Korea: A Strategy of Inertia,” Stratfor Global Intelligence, March 27, 2012.
    24.Fukuyama, Francis. “The End of History?” The National Interest (Summer 1998).
    25.Gaddis, John Lewis. “International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War,” International Security, Vol. 17, No.3 (Winter 1992/1993).
    26.Gaddis, John Lewis. “A Grand Strategy of Transformation,” Foreign Policy, 133 (November/December 2002).
    27.Haass, Richard N. “Regime Change and Its Limits,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 84, No. 4 (July/August 2005).
    28.Hong, Yong-Pyo. “North Korea’s Strategic Culture and Threat Perception: Implications for Regional Security Cooperation,” Korea Observer, Vol. 42, No. 1 (Spring 2011).
    29.Howard, Michael. “Thinking about War,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 1965.
    30.Ikenberry, G. John. “America’s Imperial Ambition,” Foreign Affairs, Vol.81, No. 5 (September/October 2002).
    31.Indyk, Martin S., Lieberthal, Kenneth G. and O’Hanlon, Michael E. “Scoring Obama’s Foreign Policy,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 91, No. 3 (May/June 2012).
    32.Johnson, Chalmers. “No Longer the "Lone" Superpower: Coming to Terms with China,” JPRI Working Paper, No. 105 (March 2005).
    33.Kolodziej, Edwar A. “French Strategy Emergent: General André Beaufre: A Critique,” World Politics, Vol. 19, No.3 (Apr 1967)
    34.Krauthammer, Charles. “The Unipolar Moment,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 70, No. 1 (1990/1991).
    35.Kristof, Nicholas D. “The Rise of China,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 5 (November/December 1993).
    36.Lankov, Andrei. “Cheap at Any Price,” Foreign Policy, July 12, 2012, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07/12/cheap_at_any_price?page=full
    37.Lee, Sung-Chool. “The ROK-U.S. Joint Political and Military Response to North Korean Armed Provocations,” CSIS, October 7, 2011.
    38.Lieberthal, Kenneth and Wang, Jisi. “Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust,” John L. Thornton China Center Monograph Series, Number 4, March 2012.
    39.Lind, Jennifer. “Why North Korea Gets Away with It” Foreign Affairs, April 12, 2012, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137399/jennifer-lind/why-north-korea-gets-away-with-it.
    40.Masters, Roger D. “A French Perspective on Strategy,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 1966.
    41.Mazarr, Michael J. “The Long Road to Pyongyang,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 5 (September/October 2007).
    42.Mearsheimer, John J. “Imperial by Design,” The National Interest (January/February 2011).
    43.Nanto, Dick K. and Chanlett-Avery, Emma. “North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis,” CRS Report for Congress, August 26, 2008
    44.Nanto, Dick K. and Chanlett-Avery, Emma. “North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis,” CRS Report for Congress, January 22, 2010.
    45.Nanto, Dick K. and Manyin, Mark E. “China-North Korea Relations,” CRS Report for Congress, December 28, 2010.
    46.Packard, George R. “The United States-Japan Security Treaty at 50: Still a Grand Bargain?” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No. 2 (March/April 2010).
    47.Perry, William J. Review of United States Policy toward North Korea: Findings and Recommendations, October 12, 1999.
    48.Rogin, Josh. “Steinberg on Asia: The Exit Interview,” Foreign Policy, June 14, 2011, http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/06/14/steinberg_on_asia_the_exit_interview.
    49.Schelling, Thomas C. “Strategic Analysis and Social Problems” in Schelling ed., Choice and Consequence, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1984.
    50.Scobell, Andrew. “China and North Korea: From Comrades-in-arms to Allies at Arm’s Length,” Strategy Studies Institute, March 2004.
    51.Shaplen, Jason T. and Laney, James. “Washington’s Eastern Sunset: The Decline of U.S. Power in Northeast Asia,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 6 (November/December 2007).
    52.Snyder, Scott. “Pursuing a Comprehensive Vision for The U.S. -South Korea Alliance,” CSIS, April 2009.
    53.Snyder, Scott. “The Foreign Policy of the Obama Administration and Northeast Asia,” Remarks to the Tenth World Korean Forum: New Era of Unified Korea and the World, August 18, 2009, pp. 1-11. http://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/SnyderObamaNEA090630.pdf.
    54.Stewart, Patrick. “The Mission Determines the Coalition: The United States and Multilateral Cooperation after 9/11”. In B. Jones, S. Forman, and R. Gowan edited, Cooperating for Peace and Security: Evolving Institutions and Arrangements in a Context of Changing U.S. Security Policy, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
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    57.The Bank of Korea, “Gross Domestic Product Estimates for North Korea in 2007.”
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    59.The Bank of Korea, “Gross Domestic Product Estimates for North Korea in 2011,” July 9, 2012.
    60.Twomey, Christopher P. “China Policy towards North Korea and Its Implications for the United States: Balancing Competing Concerns,” Strategy Insights, Vol. 5, Issue 7 (September 2006).
    61.Walt, Stephen. “Coming Up Empty,” Foreign Policy, October 25, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/25/obama_foreign_policy_coming_up_empty.
    62.Wit, Joel and Town, Jenny. “Strategic Patience Is Strategic Blunder,” Foreign Policy, June 16, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/06/16/strategic_patience_is_strategic_blunder?page=0,0.
    63.Wolf, Jr., Charles and Akramov, Kamil. “North Korean Paradoxes: Circumstances, Costs, and Consequences of Korean Unification,” The RAND Corporation, 2005.
    64.“World Spending on Nuclear Weapons Surpasses $1 Trillion per Decade,” Global Zero, June 2011.

    肆、學位論文

    一、中文
    1.孫弘鑫，〈美國柯林頓政府的朝鮮半島安全政策：從薄富爾的「行動戰略理論」分析〉，臺北：國立政治大學外交學系研究所碩士論文，2005。
    2.崔進揆，〈冷戰後強制外交在國際衝突的運用〉，臺北：國立政治大學外交學系研究所碩士論文，2006。
    3.常鳳臺，〈薄富爾戰略思想之研究〉，臺北：淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士論文，2004。

    二、英文
    1.Jemelka, Spencer Robert. “Sanctions against North Korea and Burma: Chinese Preconditions and American Dispositions,” Department of Diplomacy National Cheng Chi University Master Thesis, January 2011.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    外交研究所
    97253034
    101
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0972530341
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[外交學系] 學位論文

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