政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/54915

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/54915

English | 正體中文 | 简体中文 | Post-Print筆數 : 27 | 全文笔数/总笔数 : 113303/144284 (79%)
造访人次 : 50816653 在线人数 : 707

RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.

搜寻范围

查询小技巧：

您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号"，以获取较精准的检索结果

若欲以作者姓名搜寻，建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段，可获得较完整数据

进阶搜寻

主页 ‧ 登入 ‧ 上传 ‧ 说明 ‧ 关于政大典藏 ‧ 管理

到手机版

政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/54915

请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/54915

题名:	死亡壓縮與延壽之研究 A study of mortality compression and prolonging life
作者:	李明峰
贡献者:	余清祥李明峰
关键词:	死亡壓縮生存曲線矩形化死亡分佈數值優化壽命延長 Mortality Compression Rectangularization of Survival Curve Distribution of age-at-death Prolonging Life Optimization
日期:	2011
上传时间:	2012-10-30 14:21:37 (UTC+8)
摘要:	死亡壓縮(Mortality Compression)意指死亡年齡更集中，是最近廣受注意的研究議題，和生存曲線矩形化（Rectangularization）關係密切，以統計分佈的角度描述，則是死亡年齡會逐漸退化到某個特定年齡。換言之，如果死亡壓縮和壽命有上限兩者都成立，以統計術語而言，代表壽命的期望值有上限、變異數會收斂，可藉由死亡年齡分配探討壽命變化。本文希望以統計方法與資料品質等兩個面向探討死亡壓縮與延壽之間的關係。除了過去使用的無母數方法，如檢視各年度生命表上死亡分佈的最短區間（25%、50%及75%）與死亡人數最多的年齡（Modal Age）的變化，探討死亡壓縮與壽命是否有延長；另一方面，也將對死亡曲線作參數設定，觀察死亡年齡分佈的標準差變化。由於過往的研究多使用的生命表資料，本研究將比較使用生命表資料（死亡資料經過修勻）或原始死亡人數資料對結果的影響。本研究藉由電腦模擬比較各種估計標準差方法的差異，包括Kannisto (2000) 提出的SD(M+)法與本文考量的非線性極值法(Nonlinear-Maximization)，衡量何者具有較小的均方誤差，並探討錯誤設定分配偵誤的敏感度；另外，本文可討論使用經過修勻的死亡率及原始死亡率對於估計結果的影響。除了電腦模擬，本研究也套入實際死亡資料（如臺灣、美國、…等國資料，資料來源：Human Mortality Database），檢視死亡壓縮是否存在。 Mortality compression is one of the popular research issues in longevity risk. It means that the age-at-death would concentrate on a narrower range, and it is also related to the concept of rectangularization of survival curve. In terms of statistical distribution, mortality compression indicates that the age-at-death degenerates to a certain age, and it can be used to study changes of lifespan. If the lifespan has a limit, or mortality compression does exist, this suggests that the life expectancy has a limit and the variance of age-at-death would converge. In the study, we evaluate the mortality compression using the statistical methods and considering the issue of data quality. In addition to the nonparametric methods used in the previous studies, such as shortest confidence interval on the distribution of age-at-death and the modal age, we consider optimization methods for estimating the standard deviation of age-at-death distribution. In specific, we compare the SD(M+) proposed by Kannisto (2000) and the method of Nonlinear-Maximization, and check which method has a smaller MSE (Mean Squared Error). For the issue of data quality, we compare the estimation results of using mortality rates from life table data with those using the raw data. In addition to computer simulation, we consider the sensitivity analysis of age-at-death distribution, to evaluate the estimation method. Furthermore, based on the data from Human Mortality Database, we apply the method of Nonlinear-Maximization to life table data (i.e., graduated mortality rates) and raw data, and check if there are significant differences. The estimation results of empirical study are also used to evaluate if there is mortality compression and if there is a longevity limit.
參考文獻:	中文部分王德睦與李大正 (2009)。臺灣的存活曲線矩型化與壽命延長。人口學刊，36，1-31。行政院經濟建設委員會人力規劃處 (2010)。2010年至2060年臺灣人口推計（編號：(99)033.805）。台北市：行政院經濟建設委員會。英文部分 Cheung, K. S-L., J. Robine. J-C Tu, and G. Caselli. (2005). Three Dimensions of the Survival Curve: Horizontalization, Verticalization, and Longevity Extension. Demography 42(2): 243-258. Cheung, K. S-L., J. Robine. (2007). Increase in common longevity and the compressionof mortality: The case of Japan. Population Studies, 61:1, 85-97. Fries, J. (1980). Aging, Nature Death, and the Compression of Morbidity. The New England Journal of Medicine 303(3): 130-135. Kannisto, V. (2000). Measuring the Compression of Mortality. Demographic Research 3, Article6. (www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol3/6). Kannisto, V. (2001). Mode and Dispersion of the Length of Life. Population: An English Selection 13(1): 159-172. Lexis, W. (1878). Sur la durée normale de la vie humaine et sur la théorie de la stabilité des rapports statistiques. Annales de Démographie Internationale 2(5): 447-460. Ouellette, N. and R. Bourbeau. (2011). Changes in the age-at-death distribution in four low mortality countries: A nonparametric approach. Demographic Research 25, Article 19. (www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol25/19). Thatcher A.R., Cheung, K. S-L., S. Horiuchi, J. Robine. (2011). The compression of deaths above the mode. Demographic Research 22, Article 17. (www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol22/17). Wilmoth, J. and S. Horiuchi. (1999). Rectangularization Revisited: Variability of Age at Death within Human Populations. Demography 36(4): 475-495. Yue, C.J. (2012).Mortality Compression and Longevity Limit, Contingencies, Jan/Feb, 42-45. WHO, http://www.who.int/en/
描述:	碩士國立政治大學統計研究所 99354014 100
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099354014
数据类型:	thesis
显示于类别:	[統計學系] 學位論文

文件中的档案:

档案	大小	格式	浏览次数
401401.pdf	1268Kb	Adobe PDF2	1231	检视/开启

在政大典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

社群 sharing

著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement

1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.

DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004 MIT & Hewlett-Packard / Enhanced by NTU Library IR team Copyright © - 回馈