政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/49592

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/49592

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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/49592

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題名:	電腦模擬與隨機方法在人口推估上的應用 An Empirical Study of Simulation and Stochastic Methods on the Population Projections
作者:	郭孟坤 Kuo,MengKun
貢獻者:	余清祥 Yue,Jack C. 郭孟坤 Kuo,MengKun
關鍵詞:	人口推估人口變動要素合成法拔靴法預測電腦模擬
日期:	2006
上傳時間:	2010-12-08 14:40:37 (UTC+8)
摘要:	人口推估(Population Projection)涉及國家的政策及規劃，精確的結果可協助國家適時制訂政策，提高國民福祉。臺灣現在使用的方法為人口變動要素合成法(The Cohort Component Method)，可算是情境推估(Scenario Forecast)的一種，其起源可追溯至1920年代(Whelpton, 1928)，參酌專家意見之後，使用高、中、低三種推計來描述其變動範圍。除了情境推估外，近年在人口變動要素合成方法上發展出的新方法大致可以分成三種：一為隨機推估(Stochastic Forecast Method)、一為模擬情境(Random Scenario Method)、一為推估誤差(ex post Method)，美國及聯合國已經不單單依賴專家提供的傳統高、中、低推計，轉而使用這些新的推估方法。由於近年來生育率快速降低、平均餘命延長以及外籍新娘增多等因素，大為提高人口推估的難度，因此本文將機率的概念併入人口推估中，以預測區間（Prediction Interval）來捕捉人口各項特性的可能變動範圍。除了回顧幾種在人口變動要素合成法中發展出的隨機推估方法及合併專家意見的方針外，也使用區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)電腦模擬，進行臺灣、美國、日本、法國四個國家的人口推估。另外，本文也採用以Stoto(1983)提出的預測誤差估計，評估區塊拔靴法和人力規劃處推估結果之異同，以提供使用專家意見與隨機方法的參考。最後則是比較臺灣以北中南東小區域推估和臺灣整體的推估結果，並合併專家意見進行臺灣地區人口推估。
參考文獻:	中文部分中華民國內政部統計資訊網，http://www.moi.gov.tw/W3/stat/ 。中華民國臺灣95年至140年人口推計，行政院經濟建設委員會人力規劃處，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/index.jsp。內政部(1949 ~ 2005)，中華民國台閩地區人口統計，內政部編印。何正羽(2006), “高齡人口Gompertz死亡率推估模型的建構與應用”, 東吳大學商用數學系碩士論文。余清祥與藍銘偉(2003),“台灣地區生育率模型之研究”, 人口學刊, Vol. 27, 105-131。黃意萍與余清祥(2002),“台灣地區生育率模式的推估研究”, 人口學刊, Vol. 25, 145-171。曾奕翔與余清祥(2002),“台灣地區死亡率推估的實證方法之研究”,中華民國人口學年會學術研討會。賴思帆與余清祥(2006),“台灣與各國生育率模型之實證與模擬比較”, 人口學刊, Vol. 33, 33-59。英文部分 Alho, J.M. (1990b), “Stochastic Methods in Population Forecasting”. Int. J. Forecasting, Vol.6, 521-530. Alho, J.M. (2002), “The Population of Finland in 2050 and Beyond”, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, Discussion Papers, No.826. Alho, J., Alders, M., Cruijsen, H., Keliman, N., Nikander, T. and Pham. D.Q.(2006),“New Forecast: Population Decline Postponed in Europe”, Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE, Vol.23, 1-10. Alho, J.M. and Spencer, B.D. 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(2004), “Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting”, International Statistical Review, Vol. 72(2), 157-166. Smith, S.K.(1997), “Further Thoughts on Simplicity and Complexity in Population Projection Models”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13, 557-565. Stoto, M.A. (1983), “The Accuracy of Population Projections”, J.A.S.A., Vol. 78 (381), 13-20. Tuljapurkar, S., Lee, R.D., and Li, Q. (2004), “Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts”, International Statistical Review, Vol. 72(2), 185-199. Whelpton, P.K. (1928), “Population of the United States, 1925 to 1975”, American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 34, 253-270. Whelpton, P.K. (1954), “On Stationary Processes in the Plane”, Biometrika, Vol. 41, 434-449. Wilson, T. and Rees, P. (2005), “Recent Developments in Population Projection Methodology : A Review”, Population, Space and Place, Vol. 11, 337-360.
描述:	碩士國立政治大學統計研究所 94354019 95
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094354019
資料類型:	thesis
顯示於類別:	[統計學系] 學位論文

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