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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49592


    Title: 電腦模擬與隨機方法在人口推估上的應用
    An Empirical Study of Simulation and Stochastic Methods on the Population Projections
    Authors: 郭孟坤
    Kuo,MengKun
    Contributors: 余清祥
    Yue,Jack C.
    郭孟坤
    Kuo,MengKun
    Keywords: 人口推估
    人口變動要素合成法
    拔靴法
    預測
    電腦模擬
    Date: 2006
    Issue Date: 2010-12-08 14:40:37 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 人口推估(Population Projection)涉及國家的政策及規劃，精確的結果可協助國家適時制訂政策，提高國民福祉。臺灣現在使用的方法為人口變動要素合成法(The Cohort Component Method)，可算是情境推估(Scenario Forecast)的一種，其起源可追溯至1920年代(Whelpton, 1928)，參酌專家意見之後，使用高、中、低三種推計來描述其變動範圍。除了情境推估外，近年在人口變動要素合成方法上發展出的新方法大致可以分成三種：一為隨機推估(Stochastic Forecast Method)、一為模擬情境(Random Scenario Method)、一為推估誤差(ex post Method)，美國及聯合國已經不單單依賴專家提供的傳統高、中、低推計，轉而使用這些新的推估方法。
    由於近年來生育率快速降低、平均餘命延長以及外籍新娘增多等因素，大為提高人口推估的難度，因此本文將機率的概念併入人口推估中，以預測區間（Prediction Interval）來捕捉人口各項特性的可能變動範圍。除了回顧幾種在人口變動要素合成法中發展出的隨機推估方法及合併專家意見的方針外，也使用區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)電腦模擬，進行臺灣、美國、日本、法國四個國家的人口推估。另外，本文也採用以Stoto(1983)提出的預測誤差估計，評估區塊拔靴法和人力規劃處推估結果之異同，以提供使用專家意見與隨機方法的參考。最後則是比較臺灣以北中南東小區域推估和臺灣整體的推估結果，並合併專家意見進行臺灣地區人口推估。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計研究所
    94354019
    95
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0094354019
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Statistics] Theses

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