政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/37390

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/37390

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政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Department of Political Science > Theses > Item 140.119/37390

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37390

Title:	選民投票行為與政黨輪替：台灣及墨西哥二０００年總統選舉之比較
Authors:	許勝懋 Hsu, Shen Mao
Contributors:	劉義周鄧中堅許勝懋 Hsu, Shen Mao
Keywords:	政黨輪替政黨重組候選人因素對候選人情感溫度經濟前瞻評價改革議題 party rotation party realignment candidate image feeling thermometers prospective economic voting the salience issue of change
Date:	2006
Issue Date:	2009-09-19 13:22:49 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	民主政治運作過程中，當主政者無法滿足選民需求時，選民理所當然會以選票表達其自主性，找一個更符合其需求的政黨作為治理國家的代理人（總統）。政黨輪替就成為選民選擇最佳代理人的手段。政黨輪替的本身，就是一種權力交替與權力制衡，特別是在執政黨交不出政績的時候，政黨輪替就是一個民主的制裁機制，更是一個國家走向民主政治的重要指標。影響選民決定更換治國代理人的投票抉擇因素，主要有政黨因素、候選人因素，抑或是議題因素。無論在美國與其他西方國家，甚至在已開發或開發中國家都已經獲得印證。當選民利用參考標的進行投票，選民的總統選舉投票結果將會匯集成決定最後政權誰屬。把票投給執政黨的候選人，還是把票投給在野政黨的候選人，不僅攸關個別政黨與候選人的選舉成敗，而且還影響到統治權力歸屬，甚至會牽動政黨輪替執政的可能性，其重要性，不言而諭。也正因如此，政治學者亟思理出選舉各黨勢力消長的軌跡，試圖描繪出選民投票抉擇的決定如何影響政治權力的轉移。本文的目的，是研究選民投票抉擇的一般原則應用到總統選舉結果「政權轉移」或「政黨輪替」這個重要的主題，針對可能造成多數選民由投票支持原有執政黨轉而投票支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因進行討論。台灣與墨西哥這兩個長久以來一黨威權獨大的政權，卻同時在西元二○○○年發生政黨輪替的現象。有關選民選擇支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因，主要從三個面向進行討論：首先，政黨認同因素，選民政黨認同發生改變所引發的政黨認同重組現象，讓原本獲得多數選民支持的執政黨，因為政黨重組的因素變成僅吸引少數選民支持的在野黨；相反地，原本僅有少數選民支持的在野黨，因為政黨重組的關係變成吸引多數選民支持的執政黨。其次，候選人因素，候選人人格特質、能力與對候選人情感溫度等因素，讓多數選民受候選人這個短期因素所影響而選擇支持最大在野黨執政。最後，議題因素，選民的展望性評價與重大議題中的改革議題，因選民希冀更換原有執政黨，由最大反對黨執政，能夠改變趨於日益不振的經濟現況，並透過大幅改革能改變舊政府的缺失，期望新政府能夠振衰起弊。 In the democratic operation process, when the director is unable meet the citizens need, the citizen would express their autonomy by votes. Looking for one (or political party) who could conform to the citizens demand takes the government (president) of this country. Party rotation is a democratic sanction mechanism. That is an important indicator for country achieving the democracy. There are some factors must be considered while establishing voting behavior models in the turnover elections. There mainly are the party identification or party preference, the candidate image, and policy orientation. My thesis finds that party realignment is the key variable for 2000 Mexican presidential election, but 2000 Taiwan presidential is not. Candidate image or candidate personality centers on competence, likeability, honesty, reliability, and understanding people’s needs. Candidate evaluation refers to an overall assessment of the candidates: it is measured by way of “feeling thermometers”. My study found that candidate image is an important factor in determining Mexican and Taiwan voters choosing the opposition party candidate for a new president. The results shows that the policy issues, including prospective economic voting and the salience issue of change influence people’s voting choices.
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