政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/37390

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/37390

English | 正體中文 | 简体中文 | Post-Print筆數 : 27 | 全文筆數/總筆數 : 113451/144438 (79%)
造訪人次 : 51247756 線上人數 : 872

RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.

搜尋範圍

查詢小技巧：

您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果

若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料

進階搜尋

主頁 ‧ 登入 ‧ 上傳 ‧ 說明 ‧ 關於政大典藏 ‧ 管理

到手機版

政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 政治學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/37390

請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37390

題名:	選民投票行為與政黨輪替：台灣及墨西哥二０００年總統選舉之比較
作者:	許勝懋 Hsu, Shen Mao
貢獻者:	劉義周鄧中堅許勝懋 Hsu, Shen Mao
關鍵詞:	政黨輪替政黨重組候選人因素對候選人情感溫度經濟前瞻評價改革議題 party rotation party realignment candidate image feeling thermometers prospective economic voting the salience issue of change
日期:	2006
上傳時間:	2009-09-19 13:22:49 (UTC+8)
摘要:	民主政治運作過程中，當主政者無法滿足選民需求時，選民理所當然會以選票表達其自主性，找一個更符合其需求的政黨作為治理國家的代理人（總統）。政黨輪替就成為選民選擇最佳代理人的手段。政黨輪替的本身，就是一種權力交替與權力制衡，特別是在執政黨交不出政績的時候，政黨輪替就是一個民主的制裁機制，更是一個國家走向民主政治的重要指標。影響選民決定更換治國代理人的投票抉擇因素，主要有政黨因素、候選人因素，抑或是議題因素。無論在美國與其他西方國家，甚至在已開發或開發中國家都已經獲得印證。當選民利用參考標的進行投票，選民的總統選舉投票結果將會匯集成決定最後政權誰屬。把票投給執政黨的候選人，還是把票投給在野政黨的候選人，不僅攸關個別政黨與候選人的選舉成敗，而且還影響到統治權力歸屬，甚至會牽動政黨輪替執政的可能性，其重要性，不言而諭。也正因如此，政治學者亟思理出選舉各黨勢力消長的軌跡，試圖描繪出選民投票抉擇的決定如何影響政治權力的轉移。本文的目的，是研究選民投票抉擇的一般原則應用到總統選舉結果「政權轉移」或「政黨輪替」這個重要的主題，針對可能造成多數選民由投票支持原有執政黨轉而投票支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因進行討論。台灣與墨西哥這兩個長久以來一黨威權獨大的政權，卻同時在西元二○○○年發生政黨輪替的現象。有關選民選擇支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因，主要從三個面向進行討論：首先，政黨認同因素，選民政黨認同發生改變所引發的政黨認同重組現象，讓原本獲得多數選民支持的執政黨，因為政黨重組的因素變成僅吸引少數選民支持的在野黨；相反地，原本僅有少數選民支持的在野黨，因為政黨重組的關係變成吸引多數選民支持的執政黨。其次，候選人因素，候選人人格特質、能力與對候選人情感溫度等因素，讓多數選民受候選人這個短期因素所影響而選擇支持最大在野黨執政。最後，議題因素，選民的展望性評價與重大議題中的改革議題，因選民希冀更換原有執政黨，由最大反對黨執政，能夠改變趨於日益不振的經濟現況，並透過大幅改革能改變舊政府的缺失，期望新政府能夠振衰起弊。 In the democratic operation process, when the director is unable meet the citizens need, the citizen would express their autonomy by votes. Looking for one (or political party) who could conform to the citizens demand takes the government (president) of this country. Party rotation is a democratic sanction mechanism. That is an important indicator for country achieving the democracy. There are some factors must be considered while establishing voting behavior models in the turnover elections. There mainly are the party identification or party preference, the candidate image, and policy orientation. My thesis finds that party realignment is the key variable for 2000 Mexican presidential election, but 2000 Taiwan presidential is not. Candidate image or candidate personality centers on competence, likeability, honesty, reliability, and understanding people’s needs. Candidate evaluation refers to an overall assessment of the candidates: it is measured by way of “feeling thermometers”. My study found that candidate image is an important factor in determining Mexican and Taiwan voters choosing the opposition party candidate for a new president. The results shows that the policy issues, including prospective economic voting and the salience issue of change influence people’s voting choices.
參考文獻:	壹、中文部分一、書籍于宗先、王金利，1999，台灣泡沫經濟。台北：聯經。大前研一，江裕眞譯，2006，M型社會：中產階級消失的危機與商機。台北：商週。王甫昌，1997，《台灣民主政治與族群政治的衝突》，收錄於游盈隆主編，民主鞏固或崩潰：台灣二十一世紀的挑戰。台北：月旦，頁133-156。王保進，1996，統計套裝程式SPSS與行為科學研究。台北：松岡。王逸舟，1998，國際政治析論。台北：五南。王紹光，2002，《西方政治學與中國社會研究》，收錄於朱雲漢、王紹光、趙全勝主編，華人社會政治學本土化研究的理論與實踐。台北：桂冠，頁21-55。王業立，2001，比較選舉制度。台北：五南。田弘茂、朱雲漢、Larry Diamond、Mac Plattner主編，1997a，鞏固第三波民主。台北：業強。田弘茂、朱雲漢、Larry Diamond、Mac Plattner主編，1997b，新興民主的機遇與挑戰。台北：業強。石之瑜，2002，《政治學是一種政治主張：中國人有沒有自己的主張》，收錄於朱雲漢、王紹光、趙全勝主編，華人社會政治學本土化研究的理論與實踐。台北：桂冠，頁57-81。朱雲漢，2000，《九０年代民主轉型期經濟政策制訂的效率與公平性》，收錄於朱雲漢、包宗和主編，民主轉型與經濟衝突：九０年代台灣經濟發展的困境與挑戰。台北：桂冠，頁1-26。朱雲漢，2002，《政治學本土化研究的必要性》，收錄於朱雲漢、王紹光、趙全勝主編，華人社會政治學本土化研究的理論與實踐。台北：桂冠，頁3-20。余小云，2001，《一黨獨大的終結？—台灣「中國國民黨」和墨西哥「PRI」民主轉型之比較研究》，國家科學委員會結案報告NSC89—2414—H—034—005。余小云，2002，《墨西哥首次政權輪替後總統與國會的互動關係之研究（Ⅰ）》，國家科學委員會結案報告NSC90—2414—H—034—003。何國世，2003，《墨西哥史—仙人掌王國》。台北：三民。李浩德，1998，《墨西哥合眾國》，萬國博覽—美洲大洋洲卷。北京：新華出版社，頁789-817。宋鎮照，1995，發展政治經濟學：理論與實際。台北：五南。吳乃德，1993，《省籍意識、政治支持和國家認同—台灣族群政治理論的初探》，族群關係與國家認同，載張茂桂等著。台北：業強，頁27-51。吳乃德，1997，《國家認同和民主鞏固：衝突、共生與解決》，收錄於游盈隆主編，民主鞏固或崩潰：台灣二十一世紀的挑戰。台北：月旦，頁15-30。吳文程，1996，台灣的民主轉型：從權威型的黨國體系到競爭性的政黨體系。台北：時英。吳玉山，2002，《政治與知識的互動：台灣的政治學在九０年代的發展》，收錄於朱雲漢、王紹光、趙全勝主編，華人社會政治學本土化研究的理論與實踐。台北：桂冠，頁153-207。吳叡人，1997，《民主化的弔詭與兩難？——對於台灣民族主義的再思考》，收錄於游盈隆主編，民主鞏固或崩潰：台灣二十一世紀的挑戰。台北：月旦，頁31-48。林佳龍，1999，《解釋台灣的民主化：政體類型與菁英的策略選擇》，收錄於林佳龍、邱澤奇主編，兩岸黨國體制與民主發展。台北，月旦，頁87-152。林忠正與林鶴玲，1993，《台灣地區各族群的經濟差異》，收錄於張茂桂等著，族群關係與國家認同。台北：業強，頁101-160。若林正丈，1994，台灣—分裂國家與民主化。台北：月旦。周陽山，1993，民族與民主的當代詮釋。台北：正中。胡佛等人，1989，選民的投票行為：民國七十五年增額立法委員選舉的分析。台北：中央選舉委員會。胡佛等人，1993，選民的投票行為，：民國七十八年增額立法委員選舉的分析。台北：中央選舉委員會。胡佛，1998，政治變遷與民主化。台北：三民胡佛，2002，《序言》，收錄於朱雲漢、王紹光、趙全勝主編，華人社會政治學本土化研究的理論與實踐。台北：桂冠，頁Ⅰ-Ⅳ。徐火炎，1998a，《台灣的選舉與社會分歧結構：政黨競爭與民主化》，收錄於陳明通、鄭永年主編，兩岸基層選舉與政治社會變遷。台北：月旦，頁127-168。華世平，2002，《政治文化的方法論研究》，收錄於朱雲漢、王紹光、趙全勝主編華人社會政治學本土化研究的理論與實踐。台北：桂冠，頁111-127。郭正亮，1998，《李登輝現象：民主轉型與政治領導》，收錄於殷海光基金會主編，民主、轉型？台灣現象。台北：桂冠，頁103-142。郭秋永，1988，政治學方法論研究專集。台北：台灣商務。張茂桂，1991，社會運動與政治轉化。台北：國家政策研究中心。張茂桂，1993，《省籍問題與民族主義》，見張茂桂等，族群關係與國家認同。台北：業強，頁240-262。倪炎元，1995，東亞威權政體之轉型。台北：月旦。鄧中堅，1997，墨西哥政治發展—政治經濟學之研究。台北：時英。鄧中堅，2003，《墨西哥政府與政治》，收錄於李國雄、葉明德、鄧中堅與陳慧貞合著，各國政府與政治。台北：空中大學，頁267-296。陳世敏，1991，候選人形象與選民投票行為，於雷飛龍等，台灣地區選民的投票行為—一個理論模式的探討，國科會研究計畫，NSC79-0301-H0004-12，頁39-62。陳明通，1995，派系政治與台灣政治變遷。台北：月旦。陳明通、林繼文，1998，《台灣地方選舉的起源與國家社會關係轉變》，兩岸基層選舉與政治變遷，陳明通、鄭永年主編。台北：月旦。游清鑫，2001，《競選策略效果的探討：兼論2000年總統選舉之「興票案」》。收錄於徐永明、黃紀主編，政治分析的層次。台北：韋伯出版社，頁191-225。黃紀，2000，《質變數之計量分析》，收錄於謝復生、盛杏湲主編，政治學的範圍與方法。台北：五南，頁387-411。黃德福，1992，民主進步黨與台灣地區政治民主化。台北：時英。黃競涓，2002，「女性主義在台灣政治學研究的困境」，收錄於朱雲漢、王紹光、趙全勝主編，華人社會政治學本土化研究的理論與實踐。台北：桂冠，頁277-308。雷競璇，1989，選舉制度。台北：洞察。蔡東杰，2002，台灣與墨西哥民主化之比較。台北：風雲論壇。劉義周，1987，《選民的政黨偏好》收錄於雷飛龍等，轉型期社會中的投票行為—台灣地區選民的科際整合研究（Ⅱ），國立政治大學選舉研究中心，行政院國家科學委員會專題計畫成果報告，計畫編號：NSC76-031-H004-12。劉義周，2001，《從台灣選民選舉行為的角度評估在野聯盟的選舉合作》，收錄於蘇永欽主編，政黨重組：台灣民主政治的在出發？台北：新台灣人文教基金會，頁195-212。蕭新煌，1992，《台灣新興社會運動的剖析：自主性與資源分配》，收錄於台灣研究基金會企畫，解剖台灣經濟：威權體制下的壟斷與剝削。台北：前衛，頁9-32。龐建國，1993，國家發展理論－兼論台灣發展經驗。台北：巨流圖書公司。二、期刊王宏仁，1999，《一九五０年代的台灣階級結構與流動初探》，台灣社會研究季刊，36期，頁1-35。王容君，1988，《墨西哥總統選舉剖析》，問題與研究，28卷1期，頁58-70。王甫昌，1998，《族群意識、民族主義與政黨支持：1990年代台灣的族群政治》，台灣社會學研究，第2期，頁1-45。王鼎銘，2003，《政策認同下的投票效用與選擇：空間投票理論在不同選舉制度間的比較》，選舉研究，10卷1期，頁171-206。王鼎銘，2004，《選民為什麼會支持黑金？一個理性交易的解釋》，選舉研究，11卷1期，頁99-126。石之瑜，2005，《消失的中間選民：2004年總統大選對空間理論的修正》，問題與研究，44卷4期，頁1-24。何思因，1993，《台灣地區選民政黨偏好的變遷：1989-1992》，選舉研究，1卷1期，頁39-52。何思因、吳釗燮，1996，《台灣政治體系之下政黨認同的測量方法》，選舉研究，3卷1期，頁1-16。李酉潭，1998，《文武關係與民主鞏固初探》，中山人文社會科學期刊，6卷1期，頁131-169。金溥聰，1997，《報紙的形象設定效果研究—以民國八十三年台北市市場選舉為例》，新聞學研究，55期，頁203-223。吳乃德，1992，《國家認同和政黨支持：台灣政黨競爭的社會基礎》，中央研究院民族學研究所集刊，78期，頁101-130。吳乃德，1999，《家庭社會化和意識型態：台灣選民政黨認同的世代差異》，台灣社會學研究，3期，頁53-85。吳東野，1996，《『半總統制』政府體系的理論與實際》，問題與研究，35卷8期，頁37-49。林佳龍，2000，《政權交接的重要原則與法制化》，國策專刊：政權移轉與國家發展，15期，頁2-5。周育仁，1996，《總統直選對我國憲政體制之影響》，問題與研究，35卷8期，頁62-74。周陽山，1996，《總統制、議會制、半總統制與政治穩定》，問題與研究，35卷8期，頁50-61。胡佛、游盈隆，1983，《選民的投票取向:結構與類型的分析》，政治學報，11期，頁223-279。宮城和宏、董宜嫻，1994，《中華民國與墨西哥經濟發展策略之比較》，問題與研究，33卷4期，頁43-64。徐火炎，1991，《政黨認同與投票抉擇：台灣地區選民對政黨印象、偏好與黨派投票行為之分析》，人文及社會科學集刊，4卷1期，頁1-57。徐火炎，1995，《「李登輝情結」與省市長選舉的投票行為：一項政治心理學的分析》，選舉研究，2卷2期，頁1-36。徐火炎，1998b，《李登輝情結的政治心理與選民的投票行為》，選舉研究，5卷2期，頁35-71。徐永明，2001，《事件與議題：台灣2000年總統選舉鐘的興票案與兩岸關係》，民意研究季刊，215期，頁67-102。袁頌西，1999，《當代政治研究與自然語言問題》，政治科學論叢，10期，頁1-26。郭正亮，1996，《尋求總統和國會的平衡：雙首長制對台灣憲改的時代意義》，問題與研究，35卷7期，頁56-72。梁世武，1994，《1994台北市長選舉之預測：「候選人形象指標」預測模式之驗證》，選舉研究，1卷2期，頁97-130。盛治仁，2000，《總統選舉預測探討-以情感溫度計預測未表態選民的應用》，選舉研究，7卷2期，頁75-108。盛治仁，2001，《及時資訊處理模型與投票行為研究的運用—以美國選民投票行為分析為例》，選舉研究，8卷2期，頁31-64。盛杏湲，1998，《選民的投票決定與選與預測》，選舉研究，5卷1期，頁37-76。盛杏湲，2002，《統獨議題與台灣選民投票行為：一九九○年代的分析》，選舉研究，9卷1期，頁41-80。陳文俊，1995，《統獨議題與選民的投票行為—民國八十三年省市長選舉分析》，選舉研究，2卷2期，頁99-136。陳文俊，2003，《藍與綠—台灣選民的政治意識型態初探》，選舉研究，10卷1期，頁41-80。陳世敏，1992，《候選人形象與選民投票行為》，新聞學研究，46期，頁148-168。陳俊明，2005，《政黨輪替、文武關係與台灣民主鞏固：分析架構與策略》，政治科學論叢，24期，頁77-110。陳陸輝，2000，《台灣選民政黨認同的持續與變遷》，選舉研究，7卷2期，頁109-139。陳義彥，1994，《我國選民的集群分析及其投票傾向的預測：從民國八十一年立委選舉探討》，選舉研究，1卷1期，頁1-37。陳義彥，2003，《台灣選舉行為調查的回顧與展望～「TEDS2001」學術研討會圓桌論壇講詞》，選舉研究，10卷1期，頁1-6。陳義彥、蔡孟熹，1997，《新世代選民的政黨取向與投票抉擇—首屆民選總統的分析》，政治學報，29卷，頁63-92。游盈隆，1994，《台灣選民的議題取向投票：二屆國大選民的分析》，東吳政治學報，3期，頁219-254。游盈隆，1999，《台灣族群認同的政治心理分析》，台灣政治學刊，1期，頁41-84。游清鑫，1996，《台灣政治民主化之鞏固：前景與隱憂》，政治學報，27期，頁201-223。黃光國，2000，《多元典範的研究取向：論社會心理學的本土化》，社會理論學報，3卷1期，頁1-51 黃紀，2001，《一致與分裂投票：方法論之探討》，人文與社會科學集刊，13卷5期，頁541-574。黃秀端，1994，《經濟情況與選民投票抉擇》，東吳政治學報，3期，頁97-123。黃秀端，1996，《決定勝負的關鍵：候選人特質與能力在總統選舉中的重要性》，選舉研究，3卷1期，頁103-136。黃秀端，2005，《候選人形象、候選人情感溫度計、與總統選民投票行為》，台灣民主季刊，2卷4期，頁1-30。傅明穎，1998，《北市選民的候選人評價與投票決定》，台灣政治學刊，3期，頁195-244。傅恆德，1996，《決定投票選擇的結構、心理和理性因素：民國八十五年總統選舉研究，選舉研究，3卷2期，頁157-186。謝復生、牛銘實、林慧萍，1995，《民國八十三年省市長選舉中之議題投票：理性抉擇理論之分析》，選舉研究，2卷1期，77-92。劉天均，1994，《析墨西哥一九九四年大選》，問題與研究，33卷12期，頁34-47。劉義周，1994，《台灣政黨形象的世代差異》，選舉研究，1卷1期，頁53-73。劉義周，2005，《典型的回顧型投票—2005年三合一選舉結果的解析》，臺灣民主季刊，2卷4期，頁147-153。劉從葦，2004，《中央與地方分立政府的形成：一個空間理論的觀點》，臺灣政治學刊，7卷2期，頁107-147。鄭曉時，1992，《政體與軍隊：台灣文武關係（1950-1987）的一個分析架構》，人文及社會科學集刊，5卷1期，頁129-172。駱明慶，2001，教育成就的省籍與性別差異，經濟論文叢刊，29期，頁117-152。顧忠華，1999，《公民結社的結構變遷—以台灣非營利組織的發展為例》，台灣社會研究季刊，36期，頁123-145。三、論文林瓊珠，1998，台灣政黨體系重組過程之研究：一九九一年至一九九六年，政治大學政治研究所碩士論文。徐火炎，2001，《台灣政黨版圖的重劃：民進黨、國民黨與親民黨的「民」基比較》，發表於2001年台灣政治學會年會暨政黨輪替後之台灣政治學術研討會論文集，台灣政治學會、政治大學政治系與政治大學選舉研究中心，2001年12月15-16日。徐永明， 2000，《南方政治"的形成？台灣政黨支持的地域差別：1994-2000》，發表於「新世紀的選舉學術研討會」，政治大學選舉研究中心主辦，台北。陳陸輝、耿曙，2003，《分立政府下的政治賦權：以2002年北高市長選舉為例》，2002年選舉與民主化調查研究學術研討，11月1-20日，台北，國立政治大學選舉研究中心。陳義彥、陳陸輝，2002，《政治功效意識、政治信任感以及台灣選民的民主價值》，2001年選舉與民主化調查研究學術研討，10月19-20日，台北，國立政治大學選舉研究中心。劉義周，1997，《政治學概念測量的困難：政黨認同的實例》，國立政治大學政治學系主辦「政治學研究方法」學術研討會宣讀論文，1997年5月31日。劉義周，1998，《統獨態度的世代差異》，兩岸關係問題民意調查學術研討會論文集，國立政治大學與行政院大陸委員會，1997年5月17-18日。四、資料行政院內政部，《人口統計資料》，2001年。中央選舉委員會與政治大學選舉研究中心共同開發，《歷屆公職人員選舉資料》，2007年。政治大學選舉研究中心，《重要政治態度分佈趨勢》，2007年。台灣大學，《臺灣二○○○年總統大選面訪調查計畫》，2002年。行政院主計處第三局，《政府統計指標》，2007年。中華民國外交部，《國情詳細內容》，2006年。五、網路李心怡，〈改革色彩獲認同，宋連瞠乎其後〉，博客來網路書店，http://www.books.com.tw/data/magazine/N-Taiwan.nsf/Item_View/855250C56C7A22F3482568A5002245B6-OpenDocument.htm，2002年5月10日。胡小君，〈墨西哥革命制度黨緣何喪失政權？〉，人民網，http://politics.people.com.cn/BIG5/30178/3727474.html，2005年9月26日。貳、西文部分 (I)Books Abramson, Paul R., 1983. Political Attitudes in American: Formation and Change. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman and Company Press. Abramson, Paul R., 1995. Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections. Revised Ed, Washington D.C.: Congressional Quarterly Inc. Alcocer, Jorge , 1995. “Recent Electoral Reform in Mexico,” in The Challenge of Institutional Reform in Mexico, edited by Riordan Roett. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. Aguero, Felipe, 1997. “Toward Civilian Supremacy in South America.” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Aldrich, John H., and Forrest D. Nelson. 1984. Linear Probability, Logit, and Probit Models. Beverly Hills: Sage. Bloom, William. 1990. Personal Identity, National Identity and International Relation. New York: Cambridge University Press. Booth, Ken, and Steve Smith. Eds. 1995. International Relations Theory Today. University Park: The Pennsylvania State University Press. Budge, Ian, Ivor Crewe, and Dennis Farlie, 1976. Party Identification and Beyond: Representations of Voting and Party Competition. New York: Wiley. Camp, Roderic A., 1992. Generals in The Palacio: The Military in Morden Mexico. New York: Oxford University Press. Camp, Roderic A., 2003. Politiccs in Mexico: The Democratic Transformation. 4th, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Camp, Roderic A. 2004. “Citizen Attitudes toward Democracy and Vicente Fox’s Victory in 2000.” in Mexico’s Pivotal Democratic Election: Candidate, Voters, and the Presidential Campaign of 2000, edited by Jorge I. Dominguiz and Chappell Lawson. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Campbell, Angus, Gerald Gurin, and Warren E. Miller. 1954. The Voter Decides. Evanstone, Ⅲ.: Row Peterson. Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald R. Stokes, 1960. The American Voter. New York : John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Carey, J ohn M., “Institutional Design and Party Systems.” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Chand, K.Vikram, 2001. Mexico’ s Political Awakening. Notre Dame: Notre Dame University Press. Chu, Yun-han, Fu Hu and Chung-In Moon, 1997. "South Korea and Taiwan: The International Context" in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies, edited by Larry Diamond, Mark Plattner, Yun-han Chu and Hung-mao Tien. Johns Hopkins University Press. Cinta, Alberto. 1999. “Uncertainly and Electoral Behavior in Mexico in the 1997 Cognessional Elections.” In Toward Mexico’s Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion, edited by Jorge I. Dominguez and Alejandro Poire. New York, Routledge. Cook, Maria Lorena, Kevin J. Middlebrook and Juan Molinar Horcasitas, 1994. “The Politics of Economic Restructuring in Mexico: Actors, Sequencing, and Coalition Change.” In The Politics of Economic Restructuring.edited by Cook, Maria Lorena, Kevin J. Middlebrook and Juan Molinar Horcasitas. La Jolla: Center for US-Mexican Studies University of California, San Diego Press. Cornelius, Wayne A. and Todd A. Eisenstadt. 1999. Subnational Politics and Democratization in Mexico. La Jolla: Center for US-Mexican Studies University of California, San Diego Press. Cornelius, Wayne A. 2004. “Mobilized Voting in the 2000 Elections: The Changing Efficacy of Vote Buying and Coercion in Mexican Electoral Politics.” In Mexico’s Pivotal Democratic Election :Candidates, Voters, and the Presidential Campaign of 2000, edited by Jorge I. Dominguiz and Chappell Lawson. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Cotton, James, 1997. “East Asian Democracy: Progress and Limits.” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Craig, Ann L. and Cornelius, Wayne A. 1995. “House Divided: Parties and Political Reform in Mexico.” In Building Democratic Institution: Parties and Party Systems in Latin America, edited by Scott Mainwaring and Timothy R. Scully. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Crouch, Harold, 1997. “Civil-Military Relations in Southeast Asia.” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Dalton, Russell J., 2002. Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies.3rd, New York: Chatham House Publishers Seven Bridges Press. Dalton, Russell J., Scott C. Flanagan, and Paul A. Beck. eds. 1984. Electoral Changes in Advanced Industrial Democracies: Realignment or Dealignment? Princeton: Princeton University Press. Diamond, Larry, 1997. “Introduction: In Search of Consolidation,” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Diamond, Larry, 1999. Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press Diamond, Larry, 2000. “The End of the Third Wave and the Start of the Fourth,” in The Democratic Invention, edited by Marc F. Plattner and Joao Carlos Espada, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Diamond, Larry and Richard Gunther, 2001. Political Parties and Democracy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Dominguez, Jorge I. and Alejandro Poire, 1999. Toward Mexico’s Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion. New York: Routledge. Dominguez, Jorge I. and James McCann, 1996. Democratizing Mexico: Public Opinion and Electoral Choices. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Dominguez Jorge I. and Alejandro Poire, 1999. Toward Mexico’s Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion. New York: Routledge. Downs, Anthony, 1957. An EconomicTheory of Democracy, New York: Harper. Dunleavy, Patrick and Brendan O`Leary, 1987. Theories of the State: the politics of liberal democracy. London: Macmillan. Fiorina, Morris P., 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press. Fre, John C. H., Gustav Ranis and Shirley W. Y. Kuo. 1979. Growth with Equity: The Taiwan Case. London: The Oxford University Press. Freedom House, 2000, 2001, Freedom in the World: The Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 20002001,20012002, New York: Freedom House. Gold, Thomas B. 1986. State and Society in the Taiwan Miracle. New York: M. E Sharpe. Gorsuch, Richard L. 1983. Factor Analysis 2nd ed. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. Gramsci, Antonio. 1971. Selections from the Prison Notebooks, Quintin Hoare and Geoffrey Nowell Smith. New York: International. Guillermo O`Donnell and Phillippe Schmitter, 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule:Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies, Vol. 4, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. Gunther, Richand, P. Nikiforos Diamandouros and HansJurgen Puhle, 1995. The Politics of Democratic Consolidation: Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Habermas, J., 1989. The Structural Transformation of Public Sphere. Cambridge: The MIT Press. Haggard, Stephan and Robert Kaufman, 1995. The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. New Jersey: Princeton University. Howard, J. Wiarda, 1995. Latin American Politics, a New World of Possibility. London, U. K.: Wadsworth Publishing Company. Huntington, Samuel P., 1957. The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. Huntington, Samuel P., 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press Huntington, Samuel P., 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Last Twentieth Century. New Heaven, conn.: Yale University Press. Huntington, Samuel P., 1996. The Clash of Civilization and the Remaking of the World Order. New York: Simon & Schuster. Inglehart, Ronald, 1997. Modernization and post-modernization: Cultural, Economic, and Political Change in 43 societies. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press. Inglehart, Ronald, Miguel Basanez, and Alejandro Moreno, 1998. Human Values and Beliefs: Across Cultural Sourcebook political, religious, sexual, and economic norms in 43 societies ; findings from the 1990-1993 world value survey. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan Press. Jefferson, Thomas, 1977. The Portable Thomas Jefferson. ed. by M. Peterson. London: Penguin. Kathleen Karl E. and Paine Scott. C. 1995. “Political Images and Voting Decisions.” In Candidate Images in Presidential Elections, edited by Hacker Kenneth, New York: Praeger. Kiewiet, D. Roderick, 1983. Macro-economics and Micro-economics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issue. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Kinder, Donald R. 1986. “Presidential Character Revisited.” in Political Cognitions: the 19th Annual Carnegie Symposium on Cognition, edited by Richard R. Lau and David Sears. Hillsdale, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum, pp.233-256. Klesner, Joseph L. 1994. “Realignment or Dealignment? Consequences of Economic Crisis and Restructuring for the Mexican Party System.” In Politics of Economic Restructuring: State-Society Relations and Regime Change in Mexico, edited by Maria Lorena Cook, Kevin Middlebrook, and Juan Molinar. La Jolla: Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California at San Diego. Klesner, Joseph L. 2004. “The Structure of the Mexican Electorate: Social, Attitudinal, and Partisan Base of Vicente Fox’s Victory.” In Mexico’s Pivotal Democratic Election: Candidate, Voters, and the Presidential Campaignof 2000. edited by Jorge I. Dominguez and Chappell Lawson. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Kuhn, Thomas S. 1996. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago.: University of Chicago Press. 3rd. Kuklinski, James H., 2001. Citizens and Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Lane, Robert, E. 1959. Political Life. New York: Macmillan. Lau Richard R. and David O. Sears eds. 1986. Political Cognition. New Jersey: L. Erlbaum Associates. Lazarsfeld, Paul, Bernard Berelson and Hazel Gaudet, 1944, The People’s Choice. New York. N.Y.: Columbia University. Leftwich, Adrian, 1998. “Forms of Democratic Developmental State: Democratic Practice and Development Capacity”. In The Democratic Developmental State: Politics and Institutional Design, edited by Mark Robinson and Gordon White. Oxford University Press. Levy, Daniel C. and Kathleen Bruhn with Emilio Zebadua, 2001. Mexico:The Struggle for Democratic Development. Los Angeles: University of California Press. Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 1990. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press. Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 1988. Economic and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press Linz, Juan J. 1978. “Crises, Breakdown and Re-equilibration.” In The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes. eds. Linz and Alfred Stephan. Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press. Linz, Juan J. and Alfred Stepan, 1989. “Political Crafting of Democratic Consolidation or Destruction: European and South American Comparisons.” Democracy in Americas: Stopping the Pendulum, New York: Holmes Meier, pp.41-61. Linz, Juan J. and Alfred Stepan, 1997. “Toward Consolidated Democracies.” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Lipset, Seymour M. and Stein Rokkan, 1967. “Cleavages Structures, Party Systems and Vote Alignments: An Introduction.” In Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross National Perspectives. New York: The Free Press. Loaeza, Soledad, 1994. “Political Liberalization and Uncertainty in Mexico.” In The Politics of Economic Restructuring: State-Society Relations and Regime Change in Mexico, edited by Maria Lorena Cook, Kevin J. Middlebrook and Juan Molinar Horcasitas. La Jolla: Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California, San Diego. Lopez, Jose and Gary Potter, 2001. After Post-Modernism : an Introduction to Critical Realism. New York. Lorge, Milton, Patrick Stroh, 1993. “Inside the Mental Voting Booth.” In Explorations in Political Psychology, edited by Shanto Iyengar and William McGuire. Durnham, NC.: Duke University Press. Mackie, Tom and David Marsh, 1995. “The Comparative Method.” in Theory and Methods in Political Science, edited by David and Gerry Stoker St. Martin Press. Magaloni, Beatriz, 1999. “Is the PRI Fading? Economic Perforence, Electoral Accountability, and Voting Behavior in the 1994 and 1997 Elections.” in Toward Mexico’s Democratization: Parties, Campigns, and Public Opinion, edited by. Jorge I. Dominguez and Alejandro Poire. New York, Routledge. Magaloni, Beatriz, and Alejandro Moreno, 2003. “Catching All Souls: Mexico’s Partido Accion Nacional.” In Christian Democracy in Latin America: Electoral Competition and Regime Conflicts, edited by Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully. Stanford: Stanford University Press. Mainwaring, Scott, Guillermo O`Donnell, J. Samuel Valenzuela, 1997. “Illusions About Consolidation,” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Marsh, David and Gerry Stoker, 1995. Theory and Methods in Political Science, St. Martin Press. Miller, Warren and J. Merril Shanks, 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, Harvard University Molinar Horcasitas, J, 1996. ” Changing the Balance of Power in a Hegemonic Party system.” In Institutional Design in New Democracies: Eastern Europe and Latin America, edited by Arend Lijphart and Carlos Waisman. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press. Molinar Horcasitas, Juan and Jeffrey A. Weldon, 1994. “Electoral Determinants and Consequences of National Solidarity.” in Transforming State-Society Relations in Mexico: The National Solidarity Strategy, edited by Wayne A. Cornelius, Ann L. Craig, and Jonathan Fox. La Jolla: Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies, University of California, San Diego. Moreno, Alejandro, 1999. “Campaign Awareness and Voting in the 1997 Mexican Congressional Elections.” in Toward Mexico’s Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections and Public Opinion, edited by Jorge I Dominguez and Alejandro Poire. New York: Routledge. Moreno, Alejandro, 2003. “The Effects of Negative Campaigns on Mexican Voter.” in Mexico’s Pivotal Democratic Election: Candidates, Votes, and the Presidential Campaign of 2000, edited by Jorge I. Dominguez and Chappell Lawson. Stanford University Press. Moreno, Alejandro and Keith Yanner, 1995. “Predictors of Voter Preferences in Mexico’s 1994 Presidential Election.” (mimeographed). Nie, Norman H., Sidney Verba, John R. Petrocik, 1976. The changing American voter, Cambridge, Mass. : Harvard University Press. Niemi, Richard G. and Herbert F. Weisberg, 1993. Controversies in Voting Behavior. Washington. D. C., Congressional Quarterly Press O’Donnell, Guillermo, and Phillippe Schmitter, 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press. O’Donnell, Guillermo, Phillippe Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead, 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspective. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press. Payne, James L., 1968. Patterns of conflict in Colombia. New Haven: Yale University Press. Patterson, Thomas, 1980. The Mass Media Election: How Americans ChooseTheir Presidents, N. Y.: Praeger. Patty, John W., 2002. “Loss Aversion, Presidential Responsibility, and Midterm Congressional Elections”, Working paper, Carnegie Mellon University. Petrocik, John R., 1981. Party Coalitions: Realignments and the Decline of the New Deal Party System. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Pinto-Duschinsky Michael, 1997. “The Rise of “Political Aid,” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Poire, Alejandro, 1999. “Retrospective Voting, Partisanship, and Loyalty in Presidential Elections: 1994.” In Toward Mexico’s Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion, edited by Jorge I. Dominguez and Alejandro Poire, New York, Routledge.. Popper, Karl R. 1969. Conjectures and refutations : the growth of scientific knowledge. London: Routledge, 3rd ed. (revised). Przeworski, Adam, 1986. “Some Problems in the Study of the Transition to Democracy.” in Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, edited by Guillermo O’Donnell, Philippe C. Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead. Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press. Przeworski, Adam, 1991. Democracy and the Market: Political and Economic Reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Oxford: Cambridge University Press. Przeworski, Adam, 1992. “The Games of Transition, ”in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective, edited by Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo O`Donnell and J. Samuel Valenzuela. Notre Dame: University of Notre Dame Press, pp.105-152. Przeworski, Adam, Michael Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub and Fernando Limongi, 1997. “What Makes Democracies Endure?” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Przeworski, Adam, Susan Stokes, and Bernard Manin, 1999. Democracy, Accountability, and Representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Putnam, Robert D. 1993. Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press Rahn, Wendy M. 1990. “A Social-Cognitive Model of Candidate Appraisal.” in Information and Democratic Process, edited by John Ferejohn and James Kuklinski. Urbana: University of Illinois Press. Rajchamn, John. 1995. The Identity in Question. New York: Routledge. Reyes-Heroles, Federico, 2005. “Mexico’s Changing Social and Political Landscape.” In Mexico’s Democracy at Work edited by Russell Crandall, and Guadalupe Paz and Riordan Roett. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. Robinson, Mark and Gordon White, 1998. The Democratic Developmental State: Politics and Institutional Design. Oxford:Oxford University Press. Roett, Riordan, 1995. The Challenge of Institutional Reform in Mexico. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. Rosas, Guillermo, 2001. “Policy Preferences, Ideology, and Political Competition in Latin American Legislatures.” Working Paper. Duke University. Rubio, Luis, 2004. “Democratic Politics in Mexico: New Complexities.” In Mexico Under Fox, edited by Luis Rubio, and Susan Kufman Purcell. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. Schattschneider, Elmer Eric, 1960. The Semi-sovereign People. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich College Publishers. Schmitter, Philippe C., 1997. “Civil Society East and West.” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Schumpeter, Joseph A., 1976. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. London: George Allen & Unwin. Shirk, David A., 2005. Mexico’s New Politics: the PAN and Democratic Change, Lynne Rienner Publishers. Smith, Anthony D.S. 1979. Nationalism in the Twentieth Century. New York: Cambridge University Press. Sorauf, Frank J. and Paul Allen Beck. 1980. Party Politics in America, 6th edition, Glenview, I11.: Scott, Foreman, &Co. Sorensen, George, 1993. Democracy and Democratization: Processes and Prospects in a Changing World. Oxford: Westview Press. Stepan, Alfred, 1986. “Paths toward Redemocratization: Theoretical and Comparative Considerations,” in Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives, edited by O’Donnell, Guillermo, Philippe C. Schmitter, and Laurence Whitehead. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press Story, Dale,1986. Industry, the State, and Public Policy in Mexico. Austin: University of Texas Press. Strouse, James C., 1975. The Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Public Policy Analysis: Linkage Explorations. Ohio: Charles E. Merrill. Sunquist, James L., 1983. Dynamics of the Party Syatem. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution. To`ka Ga`bor, 1997, “Development and Democratic Culture,” in Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, edited by Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yunhan Chu, and Hungmao Tien, Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press. Valenzuela, Samuel J., 1992. "Democratic Consolidation in Post-Transitional Settings: Notion, Process, and Facilitating Conditions." in Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective, edited by Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo O`Donnell and Samuel Valenzuela. Notre Dame University Press. Wattenberg, Martin P., 1990. The Decline of American Political Parties:1952-1988. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Wattenberg, Martin P., 1998. The Decline of American Political Parties:1952-1996. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press. Weldon, Jeffrey, 1997. “Political Sources of presidencialismo in Mexico,” in Presidentialism and democracy in Latin America, edited by Scott Mainwaring, Matthew Soberg Shugart. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. West, Cornel, 1995. “ A Matter of Life and Death,” in The Identity in Question, edited by Rajchamn. New York: Routledge. Womack, John, 1967. Zapata and the Mexican Revolution. New York, Knopf. Zalewski, Marysia, and Cynthia Enloe, 1995. “Questions about Identity in International Relations,” in International Relations Theory Today, edited by Booth and Smith. Pennsylvania State University Press. Zuckerman, A., 1991. Doing Political Science, Boulder, Col.: Westview. (Ⅱ)Periodicals Abramson, Paul R., 1976. “Generational Changeand the Decline of Party Identification in American:1952-1974”. American Political Science Review, 70: 469-478. Achen, Chris. 1992. Social Psychology, Demographic Variables, and Linear Regression: Breaking the Iron Triangle in Voting Research. Political Behavior, 14:195-211. Alesina, A. 1987. “Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102: 651-678. Balch, Geoge I. 1974. “Multiple Indicators in Survey Research: The Concept.’ Sense of Political Efficacy.’” Political Methodology, 1:1-43. Bloom, H. S. and H. D. Price. 1975. “Voter Response to Short-run Economic Conditions.” American Political Science Review, 69: 1240-1254. Braungrart, R. G. and M. M. Braungrart, 1984. “Generational Politics.” Micropolitics, 3:349-415. Braungrart, R. G. and M. M. Braungrart, 1989. “Political Generations.” Research in Political Sociology, 4:281-319. Buendia, Jorge. 1996. “Economic Reform, Public Opinion and Presidential Approval in Mexico, 1988-1993.” Comparative Political Studies, 29:566-592. Chubb, John. E. 1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.” American Political Science Review, 82, 133-154. Davis, Charles L., 1992. “Religion and Partisan Loyalty: The Case of Catholic Workers in Mexico.” Western Political Quarterly 45:275-297. Diamond, Larry, 1996. “Is the Third Wave Over?” Journal of Democracy, 7:20-37. Dominguez, Jorge I. and James McCann, 1992. “Whither the PRI? Explaining Voter Defection in the 1988 Mexican Presidential Elections.” Electoral Studies 11: 207-222. Dominguez, Jorge I. and James McCann, 1995. “Shaping Mexico’s Electoral Arena: The Construction of Partisan Cleavages in the 1988 and 1991 National Elections.” American Political Science Review 89:34-48. Duch, Raymond M., 2001. “A Developmental Model of Heterogeneous Economic Voting in New Democracies.” American Political Science Review 95:895-910. Duverger, Maurice. 1980. “A New Political System Model: Semi-Presidential Government.” European Journal of Political Research 8:165-187. Eckstein, Susan, 1977. “Politics and Priests: The Iron Hand of Oligarchy and Interorganizational Relations.” Comparative Politics, 9:463-482. Elkins, David J.1974. “The Measurement of Party Competition.” American Political Science Review, 68:682-700. Fackler, Tim. and Tse-min, Lin. 1995. ”Political Corruption and Presidential Elections, 1929-1992.” Journal of Politics, 57:971-993. Franklin, Charles E and John E. Jackson. 1983. “The Dynamics of Party Identification.” American Political Science Review, 77:957-973. Glass, David P. 1995. “Evaluating Presidential Candidates: Who Focuses on Their Personal Attributes.” Public Opinion Quarterly, 49:517-534. Gomez, Brad T. and J. Matthew Wilson. 2001. “ Political Sophistication and Economic Voting in the American Electorate: A Theory of Heterogeneous Attribution.” American Journal of Political Science, 45:899-914. Hibbs, Douglas. A. 1977. “Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy.” American Political Science Review, 71:1467-1487. Hirschman, Alberto O., 1970. “The Search for Paradigms as a Hindrance to Understanding.” World Politics, 22:329-343. Hsieh, John, Dean Lacy, and Emerson Niou 1998. “Retrospective and Prospective Voting in a One-Party-Dominant Democracy: Taiwan’s Presidential Election.” Public Choice, 97:383-399. Jackson, John E., 1975. “Issues, Party Choice and Presidential Votes.” American Journal of Political Science, 19:161-186. Johnton, Ron and Charles Pattie, 2001. “Dimension of Retrospective Voting: Economic Performance, Public Service Standards and Conservative Party Support at the 1997 British General Election.” Party Politics, 7:469-490. Kahneman, Danel and Amos Tversky, 1979. “ Prospect Theory: an Analysis of Decision Under Risk.” Econometica, 47:263-291. Kalecki, Michal, 1943. “Political Aspects of Full Employment.” Political Quarterly, 14: 322-331. Karl, Terry Lynn, 1990. “Determants of Democratization in Lation America.” Comparative politics, 23:1-21. Karl, Terry Lynn and Philippe C. Schmitter. 1991, “Modes of Transition in Latin America, Southern and Eastern Europe.” International Political Science Journal, 128: 269-284. Kaufman, Robert R. and Leo Zuckermann . 1998. “Attitude Toward Economic Reform in Mexico: The Role of Political Orientations.” American Political Science Review, 92:359-375. Kelly, Stanley, Jr. and Thad W. Mirer, 1974. “The Simple Act of Voting.” American Political Science Review, 68: 572-591. Kenny, Patrick. 1983. “The Effect of State Economic Conditions on the Vote for Governor.” Social Science Quarterly, 64,154-162. Key, V. O. Jr. 1955. “Theory of Critical Eletions.” Journal of Politics, 17: 3-18. Kiewiet, D. Roderick, and Douglas Rivers. 1984. “A Retrospective on Retrospective Voting.” Political Behavior, 6:369-393. Kinder, Donald. R. and D. Roderick Kiewiet 1981. “Sociotropic Politics: The American Case.” British Journal of Political Science, 2:131-143. Kinder, Donald R., Mark D. Peters, Robert P. Abelson, Susan T. Fiske, 1980. “Presidential Prototypes.” Political Behavior, 2:315-337. Klesner, Joseph L. 1993. “Modernization, Economic Crisis, and Electoral Alignment in Mexico,”Mexican Studies/Estudios Mexicanos, 9: 187-223. Klesner, Joseph L. 1995. “The 1994 Mexican Elections: Manifestation of a Divided Society ?” Mexican Studies/ Estudios Mexicanos, 11:137-149. Klesner, Joseph L. 2000. “Presidential and Congressional Elections in Mexico, July 2000.” Electoral Studies, 21:1 Kramer, Gerald. H. 1971. “Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1986-1964.” American Political Science Review, 65:131-143. Lijphart, Arend., 1971 "Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method", in American Political Science Review,65, 682-693. Lodge, Milton, Marco R. Steenbergen, and Shawn Brau. 1995. “The Responsive Voter: Campaign Information and the Dynamics of Candidate Evaluation.” American Political Science Review, 89:309-326. Lowi, Theodore, 1992. “The State in Political Study: How We Become What We Study.” American Political Science Review, 86:1-7. Macdonald, Stuart E. and George Rabinowitz, 1987. “The Dynamics of Structural Realignment.” American Political Science Review, 81:775-796. Maddox, William, and Dan Nimmo. 1981. “In Search of the Ticket-Splitter.” Social Science Quarterly 62: 401-408. Mainwaring, S., and Pérez-Liñán, A. 2003. “Level of Development and Democracy: Latin American Exceptionalism, 1945-1996.” Comparative Political Studies. 36:1031-1067. Markus, Gregory and Philip Converse, 1979. “A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice.” American Political Science Review, 73:1055-1070. Miller, Arthur, Martin Wattenberg, and Osaka Malanchuk, 1986. “Schematic Assessments of Presidential Candidates.” American Political Science Review, 80:521-540. Miller, Warren, 1991. “Party Identification, Realignment, and Party Voting: Back to Basics.” American Political Science Review, 85: 557-568. Miller, Warren, 1992. “Generational Changes and Party Identification.” Political Behavior, 14:1-44. Molina, Horcasitas, J. 2001. “The Electoral effect of Underdevelopment: Government Turnover and Its Causes in Latin-American and Industrialized Counties.” Electoral Studies,20:427-446. Monroe, Kristen. 1979. “Economic Analysis of Election Behavior: A Critical Review.” Political Behavior 1:137-173. Monroe, Kristen and Lynda Erickson. 1986. “The Economy and Political Support: TheCanadian Case.” The Journal of Politics 48: 616-647. Nannestad, Peter, and Martin Paldam. 1997. “The Grievance Asymmetry Revisited: A Micro Study of Economic Voting in Denmark, 1986-92.” European Journal of Political Economy 13:81-99. Niemi, Richard G. and Kent Jennings, 1991. “Issues and Inheritance in Formation of Party Identification.” American Journal of Political Science, 35:970-988. Page, Benjamin I. and Calvin C. Jones. 1979. “ Reciprocal Effects on Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties, and the Vote.” American Political Science Review, 73: 1071-1089. Patterson, Thomas, 1989. “The Press and Candidate Images.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research. 2:123-135. Peltzman, Sam, 1987, “Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections,” American Economic Review, 77: 293-297. Palmer, Harvey and Raymond M. Duch. 2001. “Do Surveys Provide Representative or Whimsical Assessments of the Economy.” Political Analysis 9: 58-77. Powell, G. Bingham Jr, and Guy. D. Whitten. 1993. “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37: 391-414. Power, Timothy and Mark J. Gasiorowski, 1997. “Institutional Design and Democratic Consolidation in the Third World.”Comparative Political Studies. 30:123-155. Rabinowitz, George and Stuart E. Macdonald, 1989. “A Directional Theory of Issue Voting.” American Political Science Review, 83:93-121. Radcliff B. 1992. “The Welfare State, Turnout, And The Economy: A Comparative Analysis.” American Political Science Review, 85:444-454. Rahn, Wendy M, 1993. “The Role of Partisan Stereotypes in Information Processing about Political Candidate.” American Journal of Political Science, 37:472-496. Rahn, Wendy M., John A. Krosnick, and Marijke Breuning. 1994. “ Rationalization and Derivation Processes in Survey Studies of Political Candidate Evaluation.” American Journal of Political Science, 38:582-600. Schedler, Andreas. 1998. “What Is Democratic Consolidation?” Journal of Democracy, 9:91-107. Shin, Doh Chull, 1994. “On the Third Wave of Democratization: A Synthesis and Evaluation of Recent Theory and Research.” World Politics 47:135-170. Stokes, Donald E., 1966. “Some Dynamic Elements in Contest for the Presidency.” American Political Science Review, 60:19-28. Susuki, Motoshi, 1991. “The Rationality of Economic Voting and Macroeconomic Regime.” American Journal of Political Science 35: 624-642. Theil, Henri, 1969. “A Multinomial Extension of the Linear Logit Model.” International Economic Review, 10:251-259. Uhlaner, Carole J., 1989. “Rational Turnout: The Neglected Role of Groups.” American Journal of Political Science, 33:390-422. Wattenberg, Martin P. 2004. “Elections: Personal Popularity in the U.S. Presidential Elections.” Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 1:143-55. Winckler, Edwin A., 1984. “Institutionalization and Participation on Taiwan: From Hard to Soft Authoritarianism﹖” The China Quarterly, 99:481-499. Wu, Yu-Shan, 2001. “Comparing Third-Wave Democracies: East Central Europe and the ROC.” Issues & Studies, 37:1-37. (III)Conference Papers Magaloni, Beatriz, 1997. “ A Bayesian Retrospective Model of Electoral Choice in Dominant Party Systems.” Paper Presented at the American Political Science Association Meeting. Washington D.C. Moreno, Alejandro, 2002. “The Coalition for Change: Voters, Parties, and Democratic Transition in Mexico.” Paper present at Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, APSA, Boston. August 29-September 1, 2002. O’Donnell, Guillermo, 1995. “Partial Institutionalization: Latin American and Elsewhere.” An International Conference on Consolidation the Third Wave Democracies: Trends and Challenges. Taipei. (IV)Documents Elección de Presidente de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos, Estadística de las Elecciones Federales de México 2000, Direccion Ejecutiva de Organiztcion Electoral, Instute Federal Electoral. December 10, 2000. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, http://www.inegi.gob.mx. July 21, 2006.
描述:	博士國立政治大學政治研究所 89252504 95
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892525042
資料類型:	thesis
顯示於類別:	[政治學系] 學位論文

文件中的檔案:

檔案	描述	大小	格式	瀏覽次數
52504201.pdf		345Kb	Adobe PDF2	782	檢視/開啟
52504202.pdf		121Kb	Adobe PDF2	899	檢視/開啟
52504203.pdf		148Kb	Adobe PDF2	815	檢視/開啟
52504204.pdf		483Kb	Adobe PDF2	985	檢視/開啟
52504205.pdf		356Kb	Adobe PDF2	965	檢視/開啟
52504206.pdf		522Kb	Adobe PDF2	2096	檢視/開啟
52504207.pdf		425Kb	Adobe PDF2	3694	檢視/開啟
52504208.pdf		555Kb	Adobe PDF2	4391	檢視/開啟
52504209.pdf		495Kb	Adobe PDF2	1596	檢視/開啟
52504210.pdf		543Kb	Adobe PDF2	1076	檢視/開啟
52504211.pdf		485Kb	Adobe PDF2	1213	檢視/開啟
52504212.pdf		473Kb	Adobe PDF2	1011	檢視/開啟
52504213.pdf		354Kb	Adobe PDF2	975	檢視/開啟
52504214.pdf		365Kb	Adobe PDF2	944	檢視/開啟
52504215.pdf		541Kb	Adobe PDF2	1208	檢視/開啟

在政大典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

社群 sharing

著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement

1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.

DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004 MIT & Hewlett-Packard / Enhanced by NTU Library IR team Copyright © - 回饋