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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/36972


    Title: 死亡率改善模型的探討及保險商品自然避險策略之應用
    Authors: 陳文琴
    Contributors: 黃泓智
    陳文琴
    Keywords: 自然避險策略
    Principal Component Analysis
    Lee-Carter
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2009-09-18 20:20:15 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 隨著醫療技術的進步、環境衛生的改善與人類追求健康生活型態的趨勢，全世界人類死亡率不斷逐年地下降中。但死亡率的下降不僅影響政府的社會福利政策，也影響到壽險公司對於未來的不確定性。例如在年金商品定價上，如果使用不適當的死亡率預測將會導致保險公司在未來現金流量上的不穩定，進而影響到公司的財務健全度。因此用來預估死亡率的模型便扮演著相當重要的角色。本研究首先透過Reduction Factor圖形觀察台灣、日本、美國、加拿大、英國與法國的歷年死亡率變動，之後再使用廣為人使用的Lee-Carter模型與其改善方法主成分分析方法(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)預估未來死亡率，最後再比較兩種方法在預測死亡率的表現。再透過計算年金商品與壽險商品的純保費部份，了解忽略死亡率變動趨勢所可能產生的影響。最後利用上述年金商品與壽險商品對於死亡率帶來的影響，討論保險公司在上述情形之下可以採取的最佳自然避險策略。
    Reference: 英文部分
    Bell, W.R. (1997) “Comparing and Assessing Time Series Methods for Forecasting Age-Specific Fertility and Mortality Rates.” Journal of Official Statistics 13(3): 279-303.
    Blake, D., A. J. G. Cairns and K. Dowd (2006a). Living With Mortality: Longevity Bonds and Other Mortality-Linked Securities, British Actuarial Journal, 12, No.1, 153-197.
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    Cairns, A.J.G., Blake, D. & Dowd, K. (2005b). Pricing death: Frameworks for the
    valuation and securitisation of mortality risk. Working paper, Heriot-Watt University.
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    Cramer, H., and Wold, H. (1935). Mortality variations in Sweden: a study in graduation and forecasting, Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift 18, pp. 164-241.
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    中文部分
    余清祥(2002)，死亡率的降低對於退休金純保費的影響:台灣地區的實証研究，壽險季刊，125期，第9-20頁。
    曾奕翔(2005)，台灣地區死亡率推估的實證方法之研究與相關年金問題之探討，國立政治大學風險管理與保險系研究所碩士論文。
    余清祥、曾奕翔(2005)，Lee-Carter模型分析:台灣地區死亡率推估之研究，2005年台灣人口學會學術研討會論文。
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    風險管理與保險研究所
    95358022
    96
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095358022
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Risk Management and Insurance] Theses

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