Reference: | 參考文獻與資料﹕ 1. Aadland, D., “Detrending Time-Aggregated Data”, 2002 2. Blanchard, Olivier J. and Mark W. Watson, “Are business cycles all alike?’, NBER, June 1984 3. Bordo, Michael D. and Joseph G. Haubrich, “The Yield Curve, Recessions, and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long-run Evidence, 1875-1997”, 2004 4. Burns, A., and WC Mitchell, “Measuring Business Cycles”, 1946 5. Cooper M. and N. Chieffe, “Market Timing and the Business Cycle”, the Journal of Wealth Management, Fall 2004 6. Crawford, M., “Is The Business Cycle Still Alive?”, 2000 7. Dagnino, G., “Profiting in Bull or Bear Markets”, McGraw-Hill, 2001,中譯名:透析經濟,聰明投資,陳儀、黃嘉斌譯,麥格羅.希爾出版,2002 8. Diebold, Francis X., and Glenn D. Rudebusch, “Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective”, 1996 9. Harding, D., and Adrian Pagan, “Rejoinder to James Hamilton”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol 27, No 9, 2003 10. Hicks, J.R., “A Contribution to the Theory of the Trade Cycle”, Oxford UniversityPress, Oxford, 1950. 11. Krugman, P., Pedding Prosperity”, W.W. Norton & Company, 1994,中譯名:沿街叫賣的繁榮,盛逢時譯,先覺出版,2000 12. Kydland Finn E and Edward C. Prescott, “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations”, 1982 13. Masi, Paula R.D., “IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice”, December 1997 14. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc, “Fund Manager Survey – September 2000” and “Fund Manager Survey – October 2000”. 15. Morris, B., “Business Cycle offers Clues to Investment Opportunities”, 2001 16. Nawrocki, D., “Capital Market Theory: Is It Relevant to Practitioners?”, Oct.,1997 17. Nawrocki, D., “Phase of the USA Business Cycle and the Investment Performance of Internationally Diversified Portfolios”, 1996 18. Nawrocki, D.,, “Phase of the Business Cycle and Portfolio Management” , March 1997 19. NBER, “The NBER’s Busuness-Cycle Dating Prodecure”, October 21, 2003 20. Patel, B.C. and D. Wilson, “Getting More Negative About World Growth”, Global Economics Weekly of Goldman Sachs, Issue No.14/32, 15th September 2004 21. Pradhan, Manoj V. “Business Cycles: Competing Philosophies”, 2001 22. Pring, M. J., “The All-Season Investor”, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1992 23. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation" 24. Romer, Christina D., “Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations”, NBER, February 1999 25. Schenk, R. “A Business Cycle”, 1997-98 26. Schumpeter, Joseph A., “Business Cycles: A Theoretical Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process”, 1939 27. Spector, R. and Bostjancic K., “Fed’s MO=curve flattening: implications for bonds and stocks”, “The Market Economist”, Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc., 20 August, 2004 28. Taylor, J.G., “Investment Timing and the Business Cycle”, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1998 29. Torres, R. and J.P. Martin, “Potential output in the seven major OECD countries”, May 1989 30. Trahan F., Walters K.D., and Caroline S. Portny, “A cyclical Bear or a Sleeping Bull?”, Bear Stearns, September 14, 2004 31. Walsh, Carl E., “Changes in the Business Cycles”, 1999 32. 行政院經建會經研處,“我國第九次景氣循環高峰谷底之認定”,2000年6月 33. 行政院經建會經研處,“我國第十次景氣循環高峰谷底之認定”,2004年12月 34. 行政院經濟建設委員會網站, http://www.cepd.gov.tw/indexset/indexcontent.jsp?topno=1&linkid=2 35. 利秀蘭著,“我國第十次景氣循環高峰谷底之初步認定”,2003年3月 36. 周濟、管中閔合著,“我國第八波景氣循環谷底之認定及形成原因之探索”,1999年10月 37. 林鐘雄著,“經濟學” (1984年初版) ,第32章”經濟波動” 38. 范家驤、高天虹合著,“西方經濟學主要學派” (1996年初版) ,第12章”熊彼得經濟理論體系” 39. 馬德信,“應用模糊類神經技術對台股之模擬投資實證研究”,2003年6月 40. 高希均、林祖嘉合著,“經濟學的世界:上篇” (2001年二版) ,第7章”二十世紀的經濟大難題﹕失業” 41. 張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧、吳聰敏合著,“經濟學理論與實務” (1995年三版) ,第19章”簡單凱因斯模型的延申” 42. 郭婉容著,“總體經濟學” (1985年) ,第16章”景氣循環” 43. 詹方冠著,“景氣指標理論與應用”,2003年3月13日 44. 劉睿,“潛在產出估計的文獻綜述”,中國社會科學院世界經濟統計研究, 2004年第1期 |