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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 期刊論文 >  Item 140.119/17863


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    題名: 臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究
    其他題名: A Comparison of Fertility Projection Methods--A Case Study in Taiwan Area
    作者: 余清祥;黃意萍
    Huang,I-Ping;Yue, Jack C.
    關鍵詞: 生育率推估;Gamma函數;Gompertz函數;Lee-Carter法;交叉驗
    日期: 2002-03
    上傳時間: 2008-12-19 09:01:13 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 「生育率的降低」是影響臺灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素之一，因其變化幅度通常高於死亡率，對人口結構的影響較大。本文研究臺灣地區15至49歲五歲一組的婦女生育率，引進Gamma函數、Gompertz函數、Lee-Carter法三種模型及單一年齡組個別估計法，以西元1951年至1995年的資料為基礎，西元1996年至2000年資料為檢測樣本的驗證資料，比較上述四種方法，尋求較適合臺灣地區生育率的模型。研究發現如要預測總生育率，建議使用單一年齡組個別估計法或經由WLS 修正的Lee-Carter 模型；預測年齡別生育率，建議使用單一年齡組個別估計法或Gompertz模型。
    In recent years because of the aging population, there have been great changes in Taiwan’s fertility and mortality rates. As the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and over increase dramatically from 2.6% in 1965 to 8.8% in 2001, the decrease of fertility rate is most significant. In 1961, the total fertility rate was 5.58. By 1981, it was dropped to 1.67 and in 2001, further to 1.4, a reduction of almost 70% within 20 years. This paper examines the fertility pattern in the Taiwan area. In particular, it aims to review the various fertility models and seek for the model that is most appropriate for describing the situation in Taiwan. The models considered are Gamma function, Gompertz function, Lee-Carter method and individual group estimation. Data from 1951 to 1995 is used as a pilot for verifying the model which has the best fit for data gathered from 1996 to 2000. It is found that individual group estimation and the Lee-Carter method have least errors for predicting total fertility rates; while individual group estimation and Gompertz function are more effective for predicting age-specific fertility rates.
    關聯: 人口學刊=Journal of Population Studies, 25, 145-171
    資料類型: article
    顯示於類別:[統計學系] 期刊論文

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