政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/17863
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113318/144297 (79%)
Visitors : 51077120      Online Users : 938
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/17863


    Title: 臺灣地區生育率推估方法的研究
    Other Titles: A Comparison of Fertility Projection Methods--A Case Study in Taiwan Area
    Authors: 余清祥;黃意萍
    Huang,I-Ping;Yue, Jack C.
    Keywords: 生育率推估;Gamma函數;Gompertz函數;Lee-Carter法;交叉驗
    Date: 2002-03
    Issue Date: 2008-12-19 09:01:13 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 「生育率的降低」是影響臺灣地區近年來人口老化的顯著因素之一，因其變化幅度通常高於死亡率，對人口結構的影響較大。本文研究臺灣地區15至49歲五歲一組的婦女生育率，引進Gamma函數、Gompertz函數、Lee-Carter法三種模型及單一年齡組個別估計法，以西元1951年至1995年的資料為基礎，西元1996年至2000年資料為檢測樣本的驗證資料，比較上述四種方法，尋求較適合臺灣地區生育率的模型。研究發現如要預測總生育率，建議使用單一年齡組個別估計法或經由WLS 修正的Lee-Carter 模型；預測年齡別生育率，建議使用單一年齡組個別估計法或Gompertz模型。
    In recent years because of the aging population, there have been great changes in Taiwan’s fertility and mortality rates. As the proportion of elderly people aged 65 and over increase dramatically from 2.6% in 1965 to 8.8% in 2001, the decrease of fertility rate is most significant. In 1961, the total fertility rate was 5.58. By 1981, it was dropped to 1.67 and in 2001, further to 1.4, a reduction of almost 70% within 20 years. This paper examines the fertility pattern in the Taiwan area. In particular, it aims to review the various fertility models and seek for the model that is most appropriate for describing the situation in Taiwan. The models considered are Gamma function, Gompertz function, Lee-Carter method and individual group estimation. Data from 1951 to 1995 is used as a pilot for verifying the model which has the best fit for data gathered from 1996 to 2000. It is found that individual group estimation and the Lee-Carter method have least errors for predicting total fertility rates; while individual group estimation and Gompertz function are more effective for predicting age-specific fertility rates.
    Relation: 人口學刊=Journal of Population Studies, 25, 145-171
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Statistics] Periodical Articles

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    25_5.pdf388KbAdobe PDF2786View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback