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https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/153234
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| Title: | 「一帶一路」國家大選前後對中國態度變化之差異：六個國家的案例分析
Differences in Attitudes Toward China Before and After Elections in BRI Countries: A Case Analysis of Six Countries |
| Authors: | 范晉偉
Fan, Chun-Wai |
| Contributors: | 薛健吾
Hsueh, Chien-Wu
范晉偉
Fan, Chun-Wai |
| Keywords: | 中國
一帶一路
斯里蘭卡
馬來西亞
巴基斯坦
肯亞
馬爾地夫
薩摩亞
China
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Sri Lanka
Malaysia
Pakistan
Kenya
Maldives
Samoa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| Issue Date: | 2024-09-04 14:23:54 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 2013年起中國提出「一帶一路」倡議，透過貸款或援助的方式協助南亞、非洲、以至南太平洋等地區的國家興建基礎設施，發展出龐大的經濟影響力。然而，「一帶一路」倡議因「債務陷阱」、助長威權擴張等問題遭受外界質疑，亦成為沿線國家選舉的熱門議題。不少「一帶一路」沿線國家的反對黨在選舉中以中國為選舉議題，指責執政黨「親中」路線為該國帶來經濟，以至國家安全的疑慮，主張擺脫中國的影響力。不過在政黨輪替後，這些國家的反對黨在執政後對中國的態度出現明顯不同。部份國家的反對黨在執政後對中國態度大幅度地轉變，繼續與中國維持緊密的經濟關係；相反，另一部份反對黨在執政後卻維持其選前的「疑中」態度。本文根據「一帶一路」投資佔比、曾在2013年後經歷政黨輪替、以及中國議題在選舉中的重要性等條件，從「一帶一路」沿線國家中選出斯里蘭卡、馬來西亞、巴基斯坦、肯亞、馬爾地夫和薩摩亞六個國家的案例，進行比較，探討這些國家在對中態度上出現差異的原因。本文提出的論點是，該國積欠中國債務的程度以及其他大國對該國的影響力介入是影響該國對中國態度的重要因素。債務問題容易引起該國對中國經濟影響力的疑慮，而其他大國在該國具有明顯影響力的國家更傾向維持「疑中」的態度，反之則傾向維持對中國緊密的經濟關係。
Since 2013, China has launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to help countries in South Asia, Africa, and the South Pacific build infrastructure through loans and aid, thereby expanding its economic influence. However, the initiative has faced criticism for creating “Debt Traps” and promoting authoritarianism, becoming a major topic in elections across BRI countries. Opposition parties in these countries have often used China as a campaign issue, accusing ruling parties of adopting a “Pro-China” stance that raises economic and national security concerns, and advocating for reduced Chinese influence. After political turnovers, however, attitudes toward China have varied among these countries. Some opposition parties, once in power, have shifted to maintain close economic ties with China, while others have continued their pre-election skepticism. This article examines six BRI countries—Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Pakistan, Kenya, Maldives, and Samoa—based on their levels of BRI investment, political changes since 2013, and the significance of China-related issues in elections. It argues that the degree of debt owed to China and the influence of other major powers are key factors shaping these countries’ attitudes toward China. Countries with significant debt or strong influence from other powers are more likely to remain skeptical, while others maintain close economic ties with China. |
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吳丹，2017/1/16。〈一帶一路好通道：東非第一大港蒙巴薩港〉，《中國金融資訊網》，<https://www.cnfin.com/world-xh08/a/20170116/1682265.shtml#g1682265=1>。
李志偉，2018/1/9。〈中國成為肯尼亞最大的外商直接投資來源國〉，《人民網》，<http://money.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2018/0109/c42877-29752842.html>。
李宗憲，2023/12/11。〈學者：因應經濟放緩及負面形象 中國一帶一路正轉型〉，《中央社》，<https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202312110276.aspx>。
李超，2015/4/30。〈工行傾力支持中巴經濟走廊電力工程建設〉，《中國財經》，<https://finance.china.com.cn/roll/20150430/3089560.shtml>。
林永富，2017/5/16。〈海上絲路躍進 中巴合建5水庫〉，《中時新聞網》，<https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170516000741-260301?chdtv>。
林永富，2017/5/16。〈接軌一帶一路 中馬簽基建備忘錄〉，《中時新聞網》，<https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20170516000745-260301?chdtv>。
林柏宏，2022/11/8。〈巴基斯坦總理謝里夫應邀訪華 盼在美中之間左右逢源〉，《美國之音》，<https://www.voacantonese.com/a/pakistan-walk-a-fine-line-between-us-china-20221031/6825055.html>。
亞西及非洲司，2024/4/26。〈肯亞共和國〉，《中華民國外交部》，<https://www.mofa.gov.tw/CountryInfo.aspx?CASN=2&n=163&sms=33&s=112>。
亞東太平洋司，2024/4/22。〈斯里蘭卡民主社會主義共和國〉，《中華民國外交部》，<https://www.mofa.gov.tw/CountryInfo.aspx?CASN=5&n=5&sms=33&s=161>。
亞東太平洋司，2024/4/25。〈馬來西亞〉，《中華民國外交部》，<https://www.mofa.gov.tw/CountryInfo.aspx?CASN=5&n=5&sms=33&s=8&tabs=4ADF97FA97C9828B>。
亞東太平洋司，2024/4/29。〈馬爾地夫共和國〉，《中華民國外交部》，<https://www.mofa.gov.tw/CountryInfo.aspx?CASN=5&n=5&sms=33&s=80&tabs=4ADF97FA97C9828B>。
亞東太平洋司，2024/5/11。〈薩摩亞獨立國〉，《中華民國外交部》，<https://www.mofa.gov.tw/CountryInfo.aspx?CASN=5&n=5&sms=33&s=49>。
東森財經新聞，2018/7/10。〈巴基斯坦逼大陸繼續借錢 151兆「一帶一路」成提款卡？〉，《東森財經新聞》，<https://fnc.ebc.net.tw/FncNews/world/44159?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2SjPDJ3B7Vb2G3EOAAWlOgYRqR9zan4LFU_QEI_eYrezU3ZbiW-LCVLZE_aem_Ab3i24lTshZbFdq_9El6k4PG7Gc_X7PY5PpewP2wsccXMpAZjuJM-cNlqMJdkd1qwhSFOyMP7kwBjzBVbaFdvapo>。
旺報，2023/4/6。〈安華訪中行 取得1700億令吉投資額〉，《中時新聞網》，<https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20230406000590-260301?chdtv>。
法廣，2016/1/16。〈亞投行在北京舉行開業儀式〉，《法國國際廣播電台》，<https://www.rfi.fr/tw/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B/20160116-%E4%BA%9E%E6%8A%95%E8%A1%8C%E5%9C%A8%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E8%88%89%E8%A1%8C%E9%96%8B%E6%A5%AD%E5%84%80%E5%BC%8F>。
香港貿發局經貿研究，2023/7/6。〈馬來西亞市場概況〉，《香港貿易發展局》，<https://research.hktdc.com/tc/article/MzU4MDExMDI5>。
香港貿發局經貿研究，2023/9/25。〈肯尼亞市場概況〉，《香港貿易發展局》，<https://research.hktdc.com/tc/article/MzU3OTc0NDE2>。
香港貿發局經貿研究，2024/1/30。〈斯里蘭卡市場概況〉，《香港貿易發展局》，<https://research.hktdc.com/tc/article/MzU3OTUwODY3>。
香港貿發局經貿研究，2024/2/21。〈巴基斯坦市場概況〉，《香港貿易發展局》，<https://research.hktdc.com/tc/article/MzU4MDUzOTgz>。
香港貿發局經貿研究，2024/2/21。〈薩摩亞市場概況〉，《香港貿易發展局》，<https://research.hktdc.com/tc/article/MzU4MDIxMDIx>。
香港貿發局經貿研究，2024/3/26。〈馬爾代夫市場概況〉，《香港貿易發展局》，<https://research.hktdc.com/tc/article/MzU4MDE0Njk3>。
珍妮特，2022/6/22。〈肯尼亞副總統說若當選總統 將驅逐搶走肯尼亞工作機會的中國人〉，《法國國際廣播電台》，<https://www.rfi.fr/tw/%E9%9D%9E%E6%B4%B2/20220622-%E8%82%AF%E5%B0%BC%E4%BA%9E%E5%89%AF%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1%E8%AA%AA%E8%8B%A5%E7%95%B6%E9%81%B8%E7%B8%BD%E7%B5%B1-%E9%A9%85%E9%80%90%E6%90%B6%E8%B5%B0%E8%82%AF%E5%B0%BC%E4%BA%9E%E5%B7%A5%E4%BD%9C%E6%A9%9F%E6%9C%83%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E4%BA%BA>。
星島日報，2015/11/10。〈中國機械承包1.87億美元馬爾代夫住房項目〉，《Yahoo財經》，<https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/1829-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%A9%9F%E6%A2%B0%E6%89%BF%E5%8C%851-87%E5%84%84%E7%BE%8E%E5%85%83%E9%A6%AC%E7%88%BE%E4%BB%A3%E5%A4%AB%E4%BD%8F%E6%88%BF%E9%A0%85%E7%9B%AE-014000641--finance.html>。
星島日報，2017/11/17。〈巴基斯坦傳拒中國資助140億建水利大壩〉，《Yahoo新聞》，<https://hk.news.yahoo.com/%E5%B7%B4%E5%9F%BA%E6%96%AF%E5%9D%A6%E5%82%B3%E6%8B%92%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E8%B3%87%E5%8A%A9140%E5%84%84%E5%BB%BA%E6%B0%B4%E5%88%A9%E5%A4%A7%E5%A3%A9-135400135.html>。
美國之音，2015/3/27。〈中國：斯里蘭卡承諾將恢復被停中國工程〉，《美國之音》，<https://www.voacantonese.com/a/china-sri-lanka/2695513.html>。
美國之音，2022/2/18。〈巴基斯坦深化與中國經濟關係 政治支持換取經濟利益〉，《美國之音》，<https://www.voacantonese.com/a/implications-of-deepening-economic-ties-between-pakistan-china-20220217/6446244.html>。
美國之音，2022/9/30。〈肯尼亞新任總統魯托逆轉競選時反對中國的立場〉，《美國之音》，<https://www.voacantonese.com/a/after-anti-china-campaign-kenya-s-ruto-does-about-turn-20220929/6769772.html>。
俞懿春，2017/8/10。〈中企承建馬來西亞東海岸鐵路項目開工〉，《人民網》，<http://ccnews.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2017/0810/c141677-29462251.html>。
袁炳忠、明金維，2014/5/10。〈李克強在肯尼亞國家宮同肯總統肯雅塔舉行會談〉，《人民網》，<http://politics.people.com.cn/BIG5/n/2014/0510/c1024-25000954.html>。
唐南發，2017/2/8。〈大馬前首相馬哈迪的「種族性反中」〉，《關鍵評論》，<https://www.thenewslens.com/article/59798>。
徐偉，2017/3/23。〈中企承建巴基斯坦胡布燃煤電站項目〉，《中華人民共和國國務院新聞辦公室》，<http://www.scio.gov.cn/gxzl/ydyl_26587/zxtj_26590/202207/t20220728_262272.html>。
許可、陳旭，2023/10/19。〈習近平會見肯尼亞總統魯托〉，《中國共產黨新聞網》，<http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2023/1019/c64094-40098619.html>。
張正芊，2023/10/7。〈肯亞一帶一路基建爛尾 將向中國再借10億美元〉，《中央通訊社》，<https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202310070207.aspx>。
張永興，2018/10/16。〈薩摩亞總理：“一帶一路”倡議為南太島國帶來發展良機〉，《新華網》，<http://ydyl.china.com.cn/2018-10/16/content_66447521.htm >。
張國威，2021/8/28。〈薩摩亞新總理：有意與中國之外的國家加強合作〉，《中時新聞網》，<https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20210828003071-260409?chdtv>。
張燕生，2016/1/20。〈“一帶一路”發展戰略和復興之路〉，《中國幹部學習網》，<https://web.archive.org/web/20160128022523/http://zt.ccln.gov.cn/xxxjp/jzjd/jj3/9613.shtml>。
曹家寧，2022/1/25。〈中企承建油碼頭計畫協助肯亞經濟發展〉，《中國一帶一路網》，<https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/p/217651.html>。
國際中心，2018/8/23。〈反對中國新殖民主義 大馬總理馬哈地宣布取消兩項一帶一路建設〉，《風傳媒》，<https://www.storm.mg/article/480933>。
黃亦筠，2017/2/8。〈中日高鐵大戰 延燒東協最長路段〉，《天下雜誌》，<https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5080813>。
華視新聞，2021/12/13。〈反中“一帶一路”巴基斯坦民眾港口示威〉，《華視新聞》，
<https://news.cts.com.tw/cts/international/202112/202112132065539.html>。
葛沖，2013/5/24〈中巴決建經濟走廊 李克強形容兩國友誼是「鐵哥們」〉，《文匯報》，<http://paper.wenweipo.com/2013/05/24/CN1305240001.htm>。
鉅亨網新聞中心，2013/12/30。〈中鐵建(1186)子公司簽12億美元項目〉，《鉅亨網》，<https://m.cnyes.com/news/id/2074023>。
鉅亨網新聞中心，2018/5/8。〈馬國大選衝擊中國一帶一路 馬哈迪揚言當選後重審中資合約〉，《鉅亨網》，<https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4115258>。
楊明娟，2020/8/6。〈中巴經濟走廊一環 巴基斯坦批准鐵軌升級計畫〉，《中央廣播電臺》，<https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2074961>。
新浪財經，2018/2/23。〈中企中標馬來西亞填海綜合開發項目 合同總工期48個月〉，《中國一帶一路網》，<https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/p/48494.html>。
新華社，2013/5/28。〈習近平28日同斯里蘭卡總統拉賈帕克薩舉行會談〉，《中國政府網》，<https://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2013-05/28/content_2413561.htm>。
新華社，2013/9/7。〈習近平在哈薩克斯坦納扎爾巴耶夫大學發表重要演講〉，《中國政府網》，<http://big5.www.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.gov.cn/ldhd/2013-09/07/content_2483425.htm>。
新華社，2014/9/15。〈習近平同馬爾地夫總統亞明舉行會談〉，《新華網》，<http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2014-09/15/c_1112489618.htm?ADUIN=845283416>。
新華社，2016/3/22。〈中國中鐵投資20億美元在馬來西亞建區域總部〉，《人民網》，<http://ccnews.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2016/0322/c141677-28216706.html>。
新華社，2018/7/28。〈巴基斯坦正義運動黨在國會選舉中獲勝〉，《新華網》，<http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2018-07/28/c_1123190564.htm>。
新華社，2018/11/2。〈習近平會見巴基斯坦總理伊姆蘭．汗〉，《新華網》，<http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2018-11/02/c_1123655824.htm>。
經濟部，2023/9/20。〈馬來西亞首相安華見證馬國與中國大陸簽署3項備忘錄，總投資額達42.3億美元〉，《經貿透視雙周刊》，<https://www.trademag.org.tw/page/newsid1/?id=7888150&iz=6>。
管淑平，2023/3/22。〈中國國企取得索羅門港口合約 薩摩亞總理：令人擔心雙重用途〉，《自由時報》，<https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/4248020>。
鄭景懋，2022/6/2。〈中國推區域貿易安全協議 薩摩亞：區域須先討論〉，《中央廣播電台》，<https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2134713>。
劉彤，2016/9/10。〈中國電建在馬來西亞設立區域總部〉，《中國一帶一路網》，<https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/p/400.html>。
劉詠樂，2024/3/5。〈大馬首相安華稱中國仍是重要盟友 批美強迫他國選邊站〉，《工商時報》，<https://www.ctee.com.tw/news/20240305701103-430701>。
劉惠卿，2018/5/28。〈140億美金馬來西亞東海岸鐵路開發〉，《TVBS新聞網》，<https://news.tvbs.com.tw/focus/928026>。
劉夢，2017/11/7。〈巴基斯坦胡布煤電廠項目獲得中國15億美元融資支持〉，《中國一帶一路網》，<https://www.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/p/33226.html>。
蔡侯塞，2022/12/27。〈印度洋印中影響力之爭：2023年馬爾地夫總統大選〉，《報呱》，<https://www.pourquoi.tw/intlnews-indo-pacific-221220-221226-1/>。
德國之聲，2014/9/15。〈貿易與援助—習近平訪問馬爾代夫〉，《德國之聲》，<https://www.dw.com/zh/%E8%B4%B8%E6%98%93%E4%B8%8E%E6%8F%B4%E5%8A%A9%E4%B9%A0%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E8%AE%BF%E9%97%AE%E9%A9%AC%E5%B0%94%E4%BB%A3%E5%A4%AB/a-17922687>。
德國之聲，2018/10/29。〈斯里蘭卡憲政危機 議員指控中國介入〉，《德國之聲》，<https://www.dw.com/zh-hant/%E6%96%AF%E9%87%8C%E8%98%AD%E5%8D%A1%E6%86%B2%E6%94%BF%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F-%E8%AD%B0%E5%93%A1%E6%8C%87%E6%8E%A7%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E4%BB%8B%E5%85%A5/a-46065993 >。
簡恒宇，2020/12/17。〈印度洋珍珠爭奪戰：中國、印度爭相撒幣建大橋 馬爾地夫搭起友誼or落入債務陷阱？〉，《新新聞》，<https://new7.storm.mg/article/3296903>。
譚晶晶，2014/11/8。〈李克強會見巴基斯坦總理謝里夫時強調 打造中巴經濟走廊旗艦項目〉，《新華網》，<http://www.xinhuanet.com//politics/2014-11/08/c_1113169953.htm>。
二、英文部分
專書
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Bryman, Alan, 2008. Social Research Methods. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
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V-Dem, 2023. Democracy Report 2023, Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute.
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專書論文
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網際網路
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
東亞研究所
111260019 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0111260019 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [東亞研究所] 學位論文
|
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| 001901.pdf | | 2481Kb | Adobe PDF | 0 | View/Open |
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