政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/153234

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/153234

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题名:	「一帶一路」國家大選前後對中國態度變化之差異：六個國家的案例分析 Differences in Attitudes Toward China Before and After Elections in BRI Countries: A Case Analysis of Six Countries
作者:	范晉偉 Fan, Chun-Wai
贡献者:	薛健吾 Hsueh, Chien-Wu 范晉偉 Fan, Chun-Wai
关键词:	中國一帶一路斯里蘭卡馬來西亞巴基斯坦肯亞馬爾地夫薩摩亞 China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Sri Lanka Malaysia Pakistan Kenya Maldives Samoa
日期:	2024
上传时间:	2024-09-04 14:23:54 (UTC+8)
摘要:	2013年起中國提出「一帶一路」倡議，透過貸款或援助的方式協助南亞、非洲、以至南太平洋等地區的國家興建基礎設施，發展出龐大的經濟影響力。然而，「一帶一路」倡議因「債務陷阱」、助長威權擴張等問題遭受外界質疑，亦成為沿線國家選舉的熱門議題。不少「一帶一路」沿線國家的反對黨在選舉中以中國為選舉議題，指責執政黨「親中」路線為該國帶來經濟，以至國家安全的疑慮，主張擺脫中國的影響力。不過在政黨輪替後，這些國家的反對黨在執政後對中國的態度出現明顯不同。部份國家的反對黨在執政後對中國態度大幅度地轉變，繼續與中國維持緊密的經濟關係；相反，另一部份反對黨在執政後卻維持其選前的「疑中」態度。本文根據「一帶一路」投資佔比、曾在2013年後經歷政黨輪替、以及中國議題在選舉中的重要性等條件，從「一帶一路」沿線國家中選出斯里蘭卡、馬來西亞、巴基斯坦、肯亞、馬爾地夫和薩摩亞六個國家的案例，進行比較，探討這些國家在對中態度上出現差異的原因。本文提出的論點是，該國積欠中國債務的程度以及其他大國對該國的影響力介入是影響該國對中國態度的重要因素。債務問題容易引起該國對中國經濟影響力的疑慮，而其他大國在該國具有明顯影響力的國家更傾向維持「疑中」的態度，反之則傾向維持對中國緊密的經濟關係。 Since 2013, China has launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), aiming to help countries in South Asia, Africa, and the South Pacific build infrastructure through loans and aid, thereby expanding its economic influence. However, the initiative has faced criticism for creating “Debt Traps” and promoting authoritarianism, becoming a major topic in elections across BRI countries. Opposition parties in these countries have often used China as a campaign issue, accusing ruling parties of adopting a “Pro-China” stance that raises economic and national security concerns, and advocating for reduced Chinese influence. After political turnovers, however, attitudes toward China have varied among these countries. Some opposition parties, once in power, have shifted to maintain close economic ties with China, while others have continued their pre-election skepticism. This article examines six BRI countries—Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Pakistan, Kenya, Maldives, and Samoa—based on their levels of BRI investment, political changes since 2013, and the significance of China-related issues in elections. It argues that the degree of debt owed to China and the influence of other major powers are key factors shaping these countries’ attitudes toward China. Countries with significant debt or strong influence from other powers are more likely to remain skeptical, while others maintain close economic ties with China.
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描述:	碩士國立政治大學東亞研究所 111260019
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