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    题名: 菲律賓軍文關係（1965-2022）：戰略三角模式分析
    Civil-Military Relations in the Philippines (1965-2022): An Analysis of the Strategic Triangle Model
    作者: 梁敬偉
    Liang, Ching-Wei
    贡献者: 孫采薇
    Sun, Tsai-Wei
    梁敬偉
    Liang, Ching-Wei
    关键词: 菲律賓
    政治家族
    軍文關係
    戰略三角
    The Philippines
    Political Family
    Civil–Military Relations
    Strategic Triangle
    日期: 2024
    上传时间: 2024-03-01 12:57:16 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 菲律賓自獨立建國以來，傳統政治家族勢力盤據於中央及地方政壇上，對其政治發展造成許多重大影響，軍方在歷經馬可仕戒嚴時期後成為具有政治影響力的集團，試圖透過政變行為影響政府決策甚至與外部勢力合作推翻政府。因此除政府本身以外，政治家族與軍方皆是影響菲律賓政局走向的重要角色，為了理解三者間的關係如何形塑菲律賓的政治發展，本文透過戰略三角模式來分析自1965年馬可仕上台後至2022年杜特蒂卸任時，菲律賓七任總統任內的政府、軍方、政治家族三方的互動關係如何塑造不同時期的菲律賓政治發展及軍文關係狀態。在研究分析中，影響三方關係的因素分別為制度變化、政經局勢變化以及派系是否分裂。在制度變化中，政府透過戒嚴令、經濟與土地改革政策使得三方關係出現變化，不論是強化或是弱化其與政治家族和軍方間的關係。而在政經環境變化中，經濟狀態較為良好的情況下三方合作狀態較為明顯，反之則對立較為嚴重，而國際局勢變化同樣也會影響到三方關係的好壞，尤其在面臨外部威脅時，國內各方勢力較為團結一致。在派系分裂變化中主要在於軍方內部有無分裂狀態，如果軍方內部分裂情況嚴重，則容易與政治家族合作結盟推翻政府。在戰略三角關係的型態中，只要政治狀態處於三邊家族型態時，菲律賓國內政局較為穩定且不容易發生政變行為，而當政治狀態處於結婚型以及羅曼蒂克型時，國內政局較為不穩定且容易爆發社會抗爭與軍事政變。
    Since the founding of the Philippines as an independent nation, traditional political families have dominated the central and local political arena, causing many significant impacts on the political development of the country. Since the Marcos Martial Law period, military has become another politically influential group, which attempts influence the government's decision-making process. Therefore, in addition to the government itself, the political families and the military are also important players in influencing the political situation in the Philippines. In order to understand how the relationship among three actors shapes the political development, this paper analyzes the interaction between the government, the military, and the political families during the seven presidencies of the Philippines after Marcos. By using the Strategic Triangle Model, this paper analyzes how the interactions among the government, military, and political families shape the political development and the state of civil-military relations in different periods. The factors affecting the tripartite relationship are institutional changes, changes in the political and economic situation, and whether or not factions are divided. In the institutional changes, the government's policies of martial law, economic and agrarian reforms are able to bring changes in the tripartite relations, either by strengthening or weakening its relationship with the political families and the military. In the change of political and economic environment, the cooperation among the three parties would be more obvious when the economy is in a better state, while the opposition is more serious when the economy is getting worse. The changes of the international situation also affect the relationship among the three parties. When the country faces the external threat, the domestic forces are more united. The major change of factional division is from the military . If the military is seriously divided, it is easy to cooperate with political families to overthrow the government. In the case of the Philippines, as long as the political state is in the trilateral “family” type, the domestic political situation is more stable and less prone to coup, when the political state is in the “marriage” type and the “romantic” type, the domestic political situation is more unstable and prone to social resistance and military coup.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    東亞研究所
    109260018
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109260018
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[東亞研究所] 學位論文

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