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| Title: | 中美貿易戰、新冠疫情、烏俄戰爭對臺灣進出口的影響
The Effect of U.S.-China Trade War, COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine War on the Export and Import of Taiwan |
| Authors: | 高珮珊 |
| Contributors: | 胡偉民
高珮珊 |
| Keywords: | 中美貿易戰
新冠疫情
烏俄戰爭
進出口值
U.S.-China trade war
COVID-19
Russia-Ukraine war
Import and export |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-07-06 16:38:45 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 中國與美國自1989年以來為臺灣進出口的主要貿易國，但近幾年來經濟環境的快速變化，使臺灣在進出口貿易上有所轉變，本文使用普通最小平方法探討中美貿易戰、新冠疫情及烏俄戰爭對進出口之影響，藉由觀察2015年1月~2022年9月，共93個月之機械及電機設備、塑膠與橡膠及其製品、化學品、紡織品，以上四項產品在三項事件期間進出口值是否有顯著變化並以與臺灣主要貿易國中國、美國為例。研究結果顯示中美貿易戰雖然有帶來轉單效應使臺灣部分產業受惠，但其綜合效果影響到臺灣出口減少的情形還是較嚴重；新冠疫情期間出口值也有顯著下降，尤其與中國的貿易減少情況較為嚴重；烏俄戰爭讓全球市場去風險化、對中國與俄羅斯關係的存疑加上開戰後中國與臺灣的關係惡化影響，臺灣對中國出口的貿易值在四項產品上皆顯著下降，而美國與臺灣的貿易則有增加的情況。
China and the United States have been the major trading partners for Taiwan`s imports and exports since 1989. However, rapid changes in the economic environment in recent years have changed in Taiwan`s import and export trade. This study uses the ordinary least squares method to discuss the impact of the U.S.-China Trade War, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine War on Taiwan`s imports and exports. By observing the import and export values of machinery and electrical equipment, plastics and rubber products, chemicals, and textiles from January 2015 to September 2022, a total of 93 months, we examine whether these four product categories were affected during the three events. China and the United States, as Taiwan`s major trading partners, are taken as examples.
The research results indicate that although the U.S.-China Trade War has brought about a diversion effect benefiting certain industries in Taiwan, the overall impact has resulted in a decrease in Taiwan`s exports. The COVID-19 pandemic indeed had a negative impact on Taiwan`s imports and exports, particularly with regard to trade with China. Russia-Ukraine War led to a global market risk aversion, doubts about China-Russia relations, and the worsening of relations between China and Taiwan after the outbreak of the war. As a result, Taiwan`s trade value with China decreased significantly across four product categories, while trade between the U.S. and Taiwan has increased. |
| Reference: | 中文文獻
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英文文獻
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255005 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255005 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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