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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/145825


    Title: 中美貿易戰、新冠疫情、烏俄戰爭對臺灣進出口的影響
    The Effect of U.S.-China Trade War, COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine War on the Export and Import of Taiwan
    Authors: 高珮珊
    Contributors: 胡偉民
    高珮珊
    Keywords: 中美貿易戰
    新冠疫情
    烏俄戰爭
    進出口值
    U.S.-China trade war
    COVID-19
    Russia-Ukraine war
    Import and export
    Date: 2023
    Issue Date: 2023-07-06 16:38:45 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 中國與美國自1989年以來為臺灣進出口的主要貿易國，但近幾年來經濟環境的快速變化，使臺灣在進出口貿易上有所轉變，本文使用普通最小平方法探討中美貿易戰、新冠疫情及烏俄戰爭對進出口之影響，藉由觀察2015年1月~2022年9月，共93個月之機械及電機設備、塑膠與橡膠及其製品、化學品、紡織品，以上四項產品在三項事件期間進出口值是否有顯著變化並以與臺灣主要貿易國中國、美國為例。研究結果顯示中美貿易戰雖然有帶來轉單效應使臺灣部分產業受惠，但其綜合效果影響到臺灣出口減少的情形還是較嚴重；新冠疫情期間出口值也有顯著下降，尤其與中國的貿易減少情況較為嚴重；烏俄戰爭讓全球市場去風險化、對中國與俄羅斯關係的存疑加上開戰後中國與臺灣的關係惡化影響，臺灣對中國出口的貿易值在四項產品上皆顯著下降，而美國與臺灣的貿易則有增加的情況。
    China and the United States have been the major trading partners for Taiwan`s imports and exports since 1989. However, rapid changes in the economic environment in recent years have changed in Taiwan`s import and export trade. This study uses the ordinary least squares method to discuss the impact of the U.S.-China Trade War, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine War on Taiwan`s imports and exports. By observing the import and export values of machinery and electrical equipment, plastics and rubber products, chemicals, and textiles from January 2015 to September 2022, a total of 93 months, we examine whether these four product categories were affected during the three events. China and the United States, as Taiwan`s major trading partners, are taken as examples.
    The research results indicate that although the U.S.-China Trade War has brought about a diversion effect benefiting certain industries in Taiwan, the overall impact has resulted in a decrease in Taiwan`s exports. The COVID-19 pandemic indeed had a negative impact on Taiwan`s imports and exports, particularly with regard to trade with China. Russia-Ukraine War led to a global market risk aversion, doubts about China-Russia relations, and the worsening of relations between China and Taiwan after the outbreak of the war. As a result, Taiwan`s trade value with China decreased significantly across four product categories, while trade between the U.S. and Taiwan has increased.
    Reference: 中文文獻
    1、李正文、黃子軒(2013)。進出口貿易量變動與經濟成長之動態關聯性，先進工 程學刊；8卷1期，P31–39。
    2、蘇家偉(2008) 。出口、進口與經濟成長的因果關係：台灣、韓國及新加坡之實證研究，東海大學經濟學系研究所碩士論文。
    3、陳郁欣(2018) 。中美貿易戰爭對台灣進出口的影響 : 以電子零組件為例，政治大學經濟學系研究所碩士論文。
    4、李璨宇(2021) 。中美貿易戰對台灣半導體產業出口之影響─對美國轉單效應的驗證，中央大學產業經濟研究所碩士論文。
    5、謝嘉豪(2020)。美中貿易爭端對我國經濟之影響－ 以附加價值貿易統計進行評估，經濟研究第20期。
    6、 莊雅筑(2021)。中美貿易戰爭對台灣股票報酬率的影響─以google搜索量分析，成功大學經濟學系研究所碩士論文。
    7、洪御豪(2021)。中美貿易戰對台灣出口貿易的影響，中正大學經濟系國際經濟學研究所碩士論文。
    8、陳宜楓(2021)。新冠肺炎疫情對中華航空股價的影響，國立清華大學財務金融學系研究所碩士論文。
    9、吳得維(2021)。新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情所造成股價之影響-以台灣特定產業為例，彰化師範大學會計學系研究所碩士論文。
    10、莊百賀(2015)。ECFA與歐債危機對台灣進出口值之影響，國立成功大學國際企業研究所碩士論文。
    11、王靖超(2021)。新冠疫情與企業社會責任對特定產業績效表現的影響-以觀光餐飲、航運、電競、貿易百貨、營建產業為例，亞洲大學財務金融學系研究所碩士論文。
    英文文獻
    1、Akter Maimuna (2017). University of DhakaComparative Analysis Between Export-Led Growth and Import-Led Growth: A Study on Developing Eight (D-8).International Journal of Economics Finance and Management Sciences 5(4):204.
    2、Chen Shyh-Wei (2007). Exactly what is the link between export and growth in Taiwan? New evidence from the Granger causality test Economics Bulletin 6(7):1-10 .
    3、Chen Kong-Pin, Yang Jui-Chung, Yang Tzu-Ting (2022). Demand for transportation and spatial pattern of economic activity during the pandemic.Journal of Urban Economics，Volume 127, January 2022.
    4、Cheng Jin, Lee Sun-Ho and Hwang Jinyoung (2019).The impact of import and export on unemployment: a cross-national analysis. International Journal of Sustainable Economy 11(4):347
    5、Ekanayake E.M. (1999). Exports and Economic Growth in Asian Developing Countries: Cointegration and Error-Correction.
    6、Emery Robert F. (1967). The relation of exports and economic growth. International Review for Social Sciences Volume20, Issue4 Pages 470-486.
    7、Gaalya Micah Samuel (2015). Trade Liberalization and Tax Revenue Performance in Uganda. Modern Economy Vol.6 No.2, February 2015
    8、Junz, H. and Rhomberg, R.R. (1973). Price Competitiveness in Export Trade among Industrial Countries. American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 63, 412-418.
    9、Konya Laszlo (2001). Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Export? New Evidence from Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Central European University Working Paper No.15/2000
    10、Liadze Iana, Macchiarelli Corrado, Lee-Mortimer Paul , Sanchez Juanino Patricia (2022). The Economic Costs of the Russia Ukraine Conflict.National Institute of Economic and Social Research 2022.
    11、Marwah, K. and Tavakoli, A. (2004). The Effects of Foreign Capital and Imports on Economic Growth.Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 399-413.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政學系
    110255005
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255005
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Public Finance] Theses

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