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| Title: | 拜登時期在印太地區的美中關係–以權力轉移理論為視點
U.S.-China Relations in the Indo-Pacific Region Under the Biden Administration : A Perspective of Power Transition Theory. |
| Authors: | 徐駿毅
Hsu, Chun-I |
| Contributors: | 盧業中
陳文甲
Lu, Yeh-Chung
Chen, Wen-Jia
徐駿毅
Hsu, Chun-I |
| Keywords: | 美中競爭
權力轉移理論
印太戰略
中國崛起
U.S.-China Rivalry
Power transition theory
Indo-Pacific strategy
The rise of China |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-02-01 14:07:14 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 2017 年 12 月，由川普政府起草的首份《美國國家安全戰略報告》對外發
布，該報告將外交戰略中的「亞太」改為「印太」，這項報告代表「印太」戰略 的正式形成，到了拜登執政之後，更是加大美國印太戰略的發展，並公布美國 官方的《印太戰略》、《國家安全戰略》、《國防戰略》，每一份文件當中都直接地 將中國視為美國在印太地區最大的威脅。而隨著中國經濟實力不斷提升、軍備 支出持續增加，西方國家紛紛對中國的崛起感到壓迫，學術界以及政府的高級 官員都對此趨勢表現出擔憂，美中之間的競爭對抗日漸明顯。
在此基礎下，本文將利用國際關係理論中的「權力轉移理論」為觀察視 角，試圖用該理論框架的假設，檢驗美中之間的互動，是不是將會如同理論中 的支配性強權在面對新興強權崛起時，會出現相應對的壓制行為？
理論假設建立後，本文將會先從國家利益的核心為第一步進行探討，進而 了解美國與中國在國際上的行爲，其背後的動機與意圖為何。再深入分析美中 在印太地區的對外政策，是不是牽涉到地緣政治的戰略佈局？抑或是多邊合作 的圍堵行為？從而觀察出支配性強權與新興強權之間是各自用什麼方式，增加 自身的政治影響力形塑出有利於自己的國際環境與國際秩序。
最後，本文會將觀察到的現狀，驗證理論框架的假設是不是正確，並利用 權力轉移理論對國際結構的解釋，去預測當兩大強權在未來發展，當權力比逐 漸均勢、甚至是權力出現交錯的時候會不會發生衝突或權力轉移戰爭？而避免 發生衝突的關鍵因素，例如「國家意圖」、「制度彈性」又該如何去控制？研究 結果或許也能對我國政府做出對國際趨勢的政策建議。
In December 2017, the U.S. “National Security Strategy” first drafted by Trump administration was released. The report replaced “Asia-Pacific” in the diplomatic strategy with “Indo-Pacific”, representing that the “Indo-Pacific” strategy was formally formed. After Joe Biden took the office, he developed the Indo-Pacific strategy further, and announced the U.S. “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, “National Security Strategy”, and “National Defense Strategy”. In these reports, China was directly considered as the biggest threat against the U.S. within the Indo-Pacific region. Western countries have been under pressure to the continued growth of China’s economic capability and military expenditure. Academics and senior government officials have expressed their concern on the escalating U.S.-China Rivalry.
On the basis of the background above, this thesis uses “Power transition theory” of International Relations research as the point of view to examine if the interaction between the U.S. and China will conform to the theory’s assumptions that dominant power will try to restrain the emerging power at its rising stage.
After the theoretical assumptions are developed, this thesis first analyzes the core national interests in order to understand the international behavior of the U.S. and China. What are the motives and intentions behind? How can the foreign policy of the U.S. and China within the Indo-Pacific region involve with the geo-political strategy or even a policy of containment by multilateral cooperation? By answering these questions, we can observe the ways in which dominant power and emerging power use to enhance their political influence and shape the self-interested international order.
Finally, this thesis verifies whether the assumptions of the theoretical framework are correct with the observed status quo. According to the power transition theory’s explanation to the international structure, this thesis intends to predict whether conflicts or power transition war will happen in the future or not, when the power ratio comes to a balance gradually, or even when there is a power cross? Besides, how to manage the key factors that avoid conflicts, such as “national intention” and “institutional resilience”? The results might be able to make policy recommendations on international trends for our government. |
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「中華人民共和國海警法」，中華人民共和國國防部，<http://www.mod.gov.cn/big5/regulatory/2021-01/23/content_4877678.htm>（2021年1月22日）。
專書及專書篇章
王義桅，「一帶一路」：中國崛起的天下擔當（北京：人民出版社，2017年）。
向駿主編，2050中國第一？權力轉移理論下的美中臺關係之迷思（台北：博揚文化，2006年）。
吳玉山，「權力轉移理論：悲劇預言？」，收於包宗和主編，國際關係總論( 台北：五南圖書，2011年)。頁389-411。
李世暉譯，青山瑠妙著，中國的亞洲外交（台北：五南，2021年)。
李育慈，黃俊彥譯， Michael E. Brown等著，中共崛起（台北：國防部史政編譯局，2002）。
周湘華，國際關係（台北：新文京，2008年）。
馬建英，美國與南海問題（台北：翰盧出版，2019年）。
張亞中主編，國際關係總論(台北：揚智出版，2018)。
張桓龍，一帶一路的繁榮穩定 (上海：上海大學出版社，2017年)。
陳文甲，亞太區域經濟合作之政經分析（台北：五南圖書，2018年）。
蔡東杰，中國外交戰略 :傳統及其變遷（台北：五南圖書，2018年）。
蔡政文等著，包宗和主編，國際關係理論（台北：五南，2011年）。
鄭端耀，「搶救權力平衡理論」，收於包宗和主編，國際關係總論( 台北：五南圖書，2011年)。頁 69-83。
期刊論文
向駿，「中國威脅論及新圍堵」，美歐月刊，第11期(2006年9月)
宋國誠，「為什麼「黨媒必須姓黨」? 」，展望與探索月刊，第14卷第4期（2016年4月），頁23-28。
李大中，「美國歐巴馬政府時期的南海政策」，遠景基金會季刊，第18卷第3期(2017年7月)，頁41-84。
李思嫺，「21世紀的美中關係：權力轉移與和平 」，政治科學季刊，第31期（2011年9月），頁1-5。
李瓊莉，「美國重返亞洲對區域主義之意涵」，全球政治評論，第39期 (2012年7月) ，頁87-103。
沈丁立，「全球與區域階層的權力轉移：兼論中國的和平崛起」，復旦學報，第五期（2009年1月），頁1-9。
林偉修，「中國崛起與美中互動關係解析 (1990 ~ 2016)： 權力轉移理論與貿易和平理論的應用 」，政治學報，第72期（2021年12月），頁115-151。
唐欣偉，「歐巴馬近期外交政策評析」，全球政治評論，第49期 (2015年4月)，頁7-12。
徐遵慈，「從「重返亞洲」到「印太戰略」－美國對東南亞政策的轉變與最新發展」，經濟前瞻，第178期(2018年7月)，頁106-111。
張立德，「21 世紀美『中』權力關係檢視與展望」：權力轉移理論，戰略與評估，第5卷第2期(2014年8月)，頁91-118。
陳鴻瑜，「美國、中國和東協三方在南海之角力戰」，遠景基金會季刊，第12卷第1期 (2011年8月)，頁43-80。
廖小娟，「探索中日爭霸東北亞之衝突行為：兼論權力轉移理論的適用 」，台灣政治學刊，第72期（2016年6月），頁61-106。
趙文志，「中國大陸一帶一路倡議的經濟權力意涵： 結構性權力的觀點」，國際關係學報，第49期（2020年6月），頁1-24。
盧業中，「當前朝鮮半島的安全困境－以2010年天安艦事件以來為例」，遠景基金會季刊，第16卷1期 (2015年1月)，頁143-184。
網路資料及新聞報導
潘強，「共享新機遇：中國－東協攜手推進全面戰略夥伴關係」，新華網，<http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2022/0918/c1004-32528636.html>（2022年09月18日）。
蘭思含，「泛亞鐵路進度如何？ 貫通中南半島之路」，華僑日報，<http://www.ocdn.com.my/news.cfm?NewsId=101413>(2022年6月25日)。
「南海風波再起：中國在三沙市設行政區，越南抗議，美軍演習」，BBC中文網，<https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world-52382529>（2020年4月23日）。
「美國政府政策立場社論：美國是湄公河地區值得信賴的朋友」，美國之音，< https://editorials.voa.gov/a/cantonese-editorial-the-us-is-a-reliable-friend-to-the-mekong-region-09132021-monday-rc/6223264.html >（2021年9月12日）。
Jack I.C. Huang，「四方安全對話（Quad）是什麼？──愛搞「政治小圈圈」的國際列強，能有共識嗎？」，換日線，< https://crossing.cw.com.tw/article/16290>（2022年5月31日）
巴布，「美公佈最新國防安全戰略：俄羅斯是迫切威脅 但中國是最重大的長期安全挑戰」，美國之音，<https://www.voacantonese.com/a/pentagon-despite-russia-s-war-china-still-top-threat-to-us-20221027/6809276.html>（2022年10月28日）。
王義桅，「一帶一路寫入黨章 對話會聚焦政黨參與和貢獻策溝通」，人民網，<http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2017/1130/c164113-29676141.html>（2017年11月30日）
李雅雯，「北京批「四方」是印太北約，美媒直指中國搬石砸腳」，自由時報，<https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3936769>( 2020年11月19日)。
李源，「政策溝通，讓絲路朋友圈更緊密」，人民網，<http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2019/0420/c64387-31040467.html>（2019年04月20日）
馬佳佳，「美中高層安克雷奇會晤的四大看點」，中新社，<https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2021/03-13/9431565.shtml>（2021年03月13日）。
張雅涵，「美國與東協關係升級 拜登政府仍須積極拉攏東南亞國家」，中央廣播電台，<https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2133302> （2022年5月18日）
曹宇帆，「學者：印太戰略布局，台海成為美中軍事角力第一線」，中央社，https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202206060151.aspx，( 2022年6月6日)。
郭中翰，「歐巴馬回憶首次訪中國遭監控，美中角力暗潮洶」，中央社，https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202011190018.aspx( 2020年11月19日)。
陳良榕，「中國製造2025被川普打趴，但中國標準2035來了」，天下雜誌，<https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5100525?template=transformers>（2020年6月2日）。
斯洋，「美中競爭下東協各國如何選邊站，或「暗自不滿」？」，關鍵評論網，<https://www.thenewslens.com/article/143823>（2022年5月13日）。
楊光宇，「習近平：中國永遠不稱霸、不擴張、不謀求勢力范圍」，人民網，<http://politics.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2021/0420/c1024-32082672.html >（2021年4月20日）。
葉蘭，「香港反對派借助境外勢力，意圖煽動意識形態的對抗，鼓動仇視內地」，環球時報，<https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1629656961557283429&wfr=spider&for=pc>（2019年4月2日）。
劉寧，「為服務構建更為緊密的中國—東盟命運共同體貢獻力量」，人民網，<http://cpc.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2022/0915/c64387-32526614.html>（2022年09月15日）。
陳文甲，「「印太戰略」與「AUKUS」肩負「保台抗中」使命」，Newtalk新聞，< https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2022-04-28/746448 >（2022年04月28日）。 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
108253013 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108253013 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [外交學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
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| 301301.pdf | | 4947Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 0 | View/Open |
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