政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/143190

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/143190

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题名:	拜登時期在印太地區的美中關係–以權力轉移理論為視點 U.S.-China Relations in the Indo-Pacific Region Under the Biden Administration : A Perspective of Power Transition Theory.
作者:	徐駿毅 Hsu, Chun-I
贡献者:	盧業中陳文甲 Lu, Yeh-Chung Chen, Wen-Jia 徐駿毅 Hsu, Chun-I
关键词:	美中競爭權力轉移理論印太戰略中國崛起 U.S.-China Rivalry Power transition theory Indo-Pacific strategy The rise of China
日期:	2022
上传时间:	2023-02-01 14:07:14 (UTC+8)
摘要:	2017 年 12 月，由川普政府起草的首份《美國國家安全戰略報告》對外發布，該報告將外交戰略中的「亞太」改為「印太」，這項報告代表「印太」戰略的正式形成，到了拜登執政之後，更是加大美國印太戰略的發展，並公布美國官方的《印太戰略》、《國家安全戰略》、《國防戰略》，每一份文件當中都直接地將中國視為美國在印太地區最大的威脅。而隨著中國經濟實力不斷提升、軍備支出持續增加，西方國家紛紛對中國的崛起感到壓迫，學術界以及政府的高級官員都對此趨勢表現出擔憂，美中之間的競爭對抗日漸明顯。在此基礎下，本文將利用國際關係理論中的「權力轉移理論」為觀察視角，試圖用該理論框架的假設，檢驗美中之間的互動，是不是將會如同理論中的支配性強權在面對新興強權崛起時，會出現相應對的壓制行為？理論假設建立後，本文將會先從國家利益的核心為第一步進行探討，進而了解美國與中國在國際上的行爲，其背後的動機與意圖為何。再深入分析美中在印太地區的對外政策，是不是牽涉到地緣政治的戰略佈局？抑或是多邊合作的圍堵行為？從而觀察出支配性強權與新興強權之間是各自用什麼方式，增加自身的政治影響力形塑出有利於自己的國際環境與國際秩序。最後，本文會將觀察到的現狀，驗證理論框架的假設是不是正確，並利用權力轉移理論對國際結構的解釋，去預測當兩大強權在未來發展，當權力比逐漸均勢、甚至是權力出現交錯的時候會不會發生衝突或權力轉移戰爭？而避免發生衝突的關鍵因素，例如「國家意圖」、「制度彈性」又該如何去控制？研究結果或許也能對我國政府做出對國際趨勢的政策建議。 In December 2017, the U.S. “National Security Strategy” first drafted by Trump administration was released. The report replaced “Asia-Pacific” in the diplomatic strategy with “Indo-Pacific”, representing that the “Indo-Pacific” strategy was formally formed. After Joe Biden took the office, he developed the Indo-Pacific strategy further, and announced the U.S. “Indo-Pacific Strategy”, “National Security Strategy”, and “National Defense Strategy”. In these reports, China was directly considered as the biggest threat against the U.S. within the Indo-Pacific region. Western countries have been under pressure to the continued growth of China’s economic capability and military expenditure. Academics and senior government officials have expressed their concern on the escalating U.S.-China Rivalry. On the basis of the background above, this thesis uses “Power transition theory” of International Relations research as the point of view to examine if the interaction between the U.S. and China will conform to the theory’s assumptions that dominant power will try to restrain the emerging power at its rising stage. After the theoretical assumptions are developed, this thesis first analyzes the core national interests in order to understand the international behavior of the U.S. and China. What are the motives and intentions behind? How can the foreign policy of the U.S. and China within the Indo-Pacific region involve with the geo-political strategy or even a policy of containment by multilateral cooperation? By answering these questions, we can observe the ways in which dominant power and emerging power use to enhance their political influence and shape the self-interested international order. Finally, this thesis verifies whether the assumptions of the theoretical framework are correct with the observed status quo. According to the power transition theory’s explanation to the international structure, this thesis intends to predict whether conflicts or power transition war will happen in the future or not, when the power ratio comes to a balance gradually, or even when there is a power cross? Besides, how to manage the key factors that avoid conflicts, such as “national intention” and “institutional resilience”? The results might be able to make policy recommendations on international trends for our government.
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