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    题名: 球員選秀順位與未來表現之關聯性分析：以NBA為例
    Draft Order and Players` Future Performance: Evidence from the National Basketball Association
    作者: 謝書昀
    Shie, Shu-Yun
    贡献者: 陳鎮洲
    Chen, Jenn-Jou
    謝書昀
    Shie, Shu-Yun
    关键词: NBA選秀
    球員表現
    運動經濟學
    NBA draft
    Player performance
    Sports economics
    日期: 2021
    上传时间: 2021-07-01 20:22:58 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究採用美國籃球聯盟西元 2006 年至 2017 年順利通過兩輪選秀之新秀球員數據資料，以迴歸不連續法，估計球員選秀順位與其未來表現關聯性。實證結果顯示，在前三年的職業生涯中，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員，並未擁有較佳表現。在職業生涯第二年，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員， 平均每場比賽獲得較多上場時間;然而，此結果並不穩定。去除了同一賽季中，曾有轉換過球隊的球員後，仍獲得類似結果。因此，推斷此不穩定結果現象可能為樣本數不足原因所致。
    The goal of this paper is to examine the correlation between draft order and players’ subsequent performance using draftees’ statistics between 2006 and 2017 from the National Basketball Association (NBA). A regression discontinuity design is applied to capture the effect of draft order. The results show that higher-drafted players are not more productive than lower-drafted players throughout the first three years of their career. Although higher-drafted players have more playing time per game than lower-drafted players in their second year, the results are unstable. In a subgroup analysis, I find similar results. A possible reason for the unexpected results may lie in the inadequacy of the sample size.
    參考文獻: Berri, D. J., Brook, S. L., & Fenn, A. J. (2011). From college to the pros: Predicting the NBA amateur player draft. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 35(1), 25-35.

    Berri, D. J., & Simmons, R. (2011). Catching a draft: On the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 35(1), 37-49.

    Borland, J., Lee, L., & Macdonald, R. D. (2011). Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL. Labour Economics, 18(3), 371-380.

    Camerer, C. F., & Weber, R. A. (1999). The econometrics and behavioral economics of escalation of commitment: A re-examination of Staw and Hoang’s NBA data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 39(1), 59-82.

    Evans, B. A. (2018). From college to the NBA: what determines a player’s success and what characteristics are NBA franchises overlooking?. Applied Economics Letters, 25(5), 300-304.

    Hinton, A., & Sun, Y. (2020). The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Basketball Association: evidence using player salary and playing time. Empirical Economics, 59(2), 1019-1036.

    Keefer, Q. A. (2017). The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Football League: Salary cap value and playing time. Journal of Sports Economics, 18(3), 282-297.

    Leeds, D. M., Leeds, M. A., & Motomura, A. (2015). Are sunk costs irrelevant? Evidence from playing time in the National Basketball Association. Economic Inquiry, 53(2), 1305-1316.

    Rodenberg, R. M., & Woo Kim, J. (2011). Precocity and labor market outcomes: evidence from professional basketball. Economics Bulletin, 31(3), 2185-2190.

    Staw, B. M., & Hoang, H. (1995). Sunk costs in the NBA: Why draft order affects playing time and survival in professional basketball. Administrative Science Quarterly, 474-494.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    107258023
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107258023
    数据类型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202100578
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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