政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/135994

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/135994

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政大典藏 > College of Social Science > Department of Economics > Theses > Item 140.119/135994

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/135994

Title:	球員選秀順位與未來表現之關聯性分析：以NBA為例 Draft Order and Players` Future Performance: Evidence from the National Basketball Association
Authors:	謝書昀 Shie, Shu-Yun
Contributors:	陳鎮洲 Chen, Jenn-Jou 謝書昀 Shie, Shu-Yun
Keywords:	NBA選秀球員表現運動經濟學 NBA draft Player performance Sports economics
Date:	2021
Issue Date:	2021-07-01 20:22:58 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究採用美國籃球聯盟西元 2006 年至 2017 年順利通過兩輪選秀之新秀球員數據資料，以迴歸不連續法，估計球員選秀順位與其未來表現關聯性。實證結果顯示，在前三年的職業生涯中，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員，並未擁有較佳表現。在職業生涯第二年，高選秀順位球員相較於低選秀順位球員，平均每場比賽獲得較多上場時間;然而，此結果並不穩定。去除了同一賽季中，曾有轉換過球隊的球員後，仍獲得類似結果。因此，推斷此不穩定結果現象可能為樣本數不足原因所致。 The goal of this paper is to examine the correlation between draft order and players’ subsequent performance using draftees’ statistics between 2006 and 2017 from the National Basketball Association (NBA). A regression discontinuity design is applied to capture the effect of draft order. The results show that higher-drafted players are not more productive than lower-drafted players throughout the first three years of their career. Although higher-drafted players have more playing time per game than lower-drafted players in their second year, the results are unstable. In a subgroup analysis, I find similar results. A possible reason for the unexpected results may lie in the inadequacy of the sample size.
Reference:	Berri, D. J., Brook, S. L., & Fenn, A. J. (2011). From college to the pros: Predicting the NBA amateur player draft. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 35(1), 25-35. Berri, D. J., & Simmons, R. (2011). Catching a draft: On the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 35(1), 37-49. Borland, J., Lee, L., & Macdonald, R. D. (2011). Escalation effects and the player draft in the AFL. Labour Economics, 18(3), 371-380. Camerer, C. F., & Weber, R. A. (1999). The econometrics and behavioral economics of escalation of commitment: A re-examination of Staw and Hoang’s NBA data. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 39(1), 59-82. Evans, B. A. (2018). From college to the NBA: what determines a player’s success and what characteristics are NBA franchises overlooking?. Applied Economics Letters, 25(5), 300-304. Hinton, A., & Sun, Y. (2020). The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Basketball Association: evidence using player salary and playing time. Empirical Economics, 59(2), 1019-1036. Keefer, Q. A. (2017). The sunk-cost fallacy in the National Football League: Salary cap value and playing time. Journal of Sports Economics, 18(3), 282-297. Leeds, D. M., Leeds, M. A., & Motomura, A. (2015). Are sunk costs irrelevant? Evidence from playing time in the National Basketball Association. Economic Inquiry, 53(2), 1305-1316. Rodenberg, R. M., & Woo Kim, J. (2011). Precocity and labor market outcomes: evidence from professional basketball. Economics Bulletin, 31(3), 2185-2190. Staw, B. M., & Hoang, H. (1995). Sunk costs in the NBA: Why draft order affects playing time and survival in professional basketball. Administrative Science Quarterly, 474-494.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學經濟學系 107258023
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107258023
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU202100578
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Economics] Theses

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