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    题名: 管理當局預測修正對於供應鏈成員資本支出的影響
    The Effect of Forecast Revision on Capital Investment along the Supply Chain
    作者: 游柏祥
    Yu, Po-Hsiang
    贡献者: 金成隆
    Chin, Chen-Lung
    游柏祥
    Yu, Po-Hsiang
    关键词: 供應鏈
    資本支出
    長鞭效應
    預測修正
    supply chain
    capital investment
    bullwhip effect
    forecast revision
    日期: 2019
    上传时间: 2020-04-06 14:43:14 (UTC+8)
    摘要: Using a 3-tier supply chain structure (i.e., upstream, midstream and downstream firms), this paper investigates the effect of management earnings forecast revision on capital investment decisions along the supply chain. The bullwhip effect indicates that when demand information passes up through each site along the supply chain, it leads to a greater variance in demand for supply chain members further away from the downstream firm. By using upward forecast revision at the downstream site as a positive signal in the product demand, I predict and document a positive association between the downstream firm’s upward management earnings forecast revision and the capital investment at the upstream firm and that the extent to which the upstream invests in the capital investment outlays surpasses that made by the midstream firm. Further analyses demonstrate the positive effect of the downstream firm’s management earnings forecast revision on the capital investment at the upstream firm and that greater capital expenditure at the upstream firm relative to the midstream firm prevails under higher economic policy uncertainty, both during expansion (rather than contraction) periods and for supply chain members with lower bargaining power, more volatile demand uncertainty and order backlog. Overall, these results seem to suggest an uptick in forecast revision at the downstream site, leading to a swing in capital investment at the upstream site.
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    描述: 博士
    國立政治大學
    會計學系
    102353501
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102353501
    数据类型: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202000391
    显示于类别:[會計學系] 學位論文

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