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Title:	管理當局預測修正對於供應鏈成員資本支出的影響 The Effect of Forecast Revision on Capital Investment along the Supply Chain
Authors:	游柏祥 Yu, Po-Hsiang
Contributors:	金成隆 Chin, Chen-Lung 游柏祥 Yu, Po-Hsiang
Keywords:	供應鏈資本支出長鞭效應預測修正 supply chain capital investment bullwhip effect forecast revision
Date:	2019
Issue Date:	2020-04-06 14:43:14 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	Using a 3-tier supply chain structure (i.e., upstream, midstream and downstream firms), this paper investigates the effect of management earnings forecast revision on capital investment decisions along the supply chain. The bullwhip effect indicates that when demand information passes up through each site along the supply chain, it leads to a greater variance in demand for supply chain members further away from the downstream firm. By using upward forecast revision at the downstream site as a positive signal in the product demand, I predict and document a positive association between the downstream firm’s upward management earnings forecast revision and the capital investment at the upstream firm and that the extent to which the upstream invests in the capital investment outlays surpasses that made by the midstream firm. Further analyses demonstrate the positive effect of the downstream firm’s management earnings forecast revision on the capital investment at the upstream firm and that greater capital expenditure at the upstream firm relative to the midstream firm prevails under higher economic policy uncertainty, both during expansion (rather than contraction) periods and for supply chain members with lower bargaining power, more volatile demand uncertainty and order backlog. Overall, these results seem to suggest an uptick in forecast revision at the downstream site, leading to a swing in capital investment at the upstream site.
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Description:	博士國立政治大學會計學系 102353501
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102353501
Data Type:	thesis
DOI:	10.6814/NCCU202000391
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Accounting] Theses

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