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    Title: 總體經濟因素與房貸負擔能力關係之研究 ─ 以台北地區家戶為例
    The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Factors and Housing AffordabilityA Case Study of Taipei Area
    Authors: 蘇盈如
    Contributors: 黃明聖
    蘇盈如
    Keywords: 房貸負擔能力
    負擔風險法
    家戶所得
    Mortgage affordability
    Affordability at risk
    income
    Date: 2016
    Issue Date: 2016-07-01 15:28:00 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 台北市房價明顯高於其他地區,也使得民眾的購屋負擔相對沉重。其中房貸金額屬未來現金流出部分,是否有足夠能力償還貸款將直接影響生活品質。本研究旨在了解總體經濟因素對台北地區家戶房貸負擔能力的影響,並進一步探討家戶房貸負擔能力在面對相同因素下,是否會因所得的差異而有不同影響。
    本研究採用Gan and Hill (2009) 提出的負擔風險法 (affordability at risk) 為基礎,藉由應還本付息金額與可負擔還本付息金額等資料計算出家戶單位房貸負擔風險。樣本期間為2009年至2014年,並將台北市全體家戶依所得區分為五等分位,再進一步比較各項經濟變數在不同年度及不同所得下與家戶房貸負擔風險之關係。
    經實證結果得到以下四點結論: (1) 台北市整體家戶房貸負擔風險在樣本期間主要受「房價指數」、「經濟成長率」、「貸款利率」與「建物面積」影響。 (2) 當家戶單位所得越高,其房貸負擔越不容易受經濟變數影響。 (3) 銀行核貸條件顯著影響所得較低者之房貸負擔。 (4) 第三所得分位之房貸負擔風險相對其他分位數高。本研究亦提出以下三點建議: (1) 縮短不動產交易實價查詢資料更新時間,使實價登錄價格得以更即時反應。 (2) 續辦理政策性優惠房貸,依區域房價差異彈性調整申貸額度,(3) 針對確實換屋者有條件調整其適用利率,調整購屋補貼息。以期改善未來購屋者之房貸負擔,緩解台北市家戶房貸壓力。
    Housing price in Taiwan has risen for the past decade; Taipei City even reached historical high record in 2014. The burden of the mortgage, which is part of future cash out, becomes more stressful under such circumstance. For household units, the solvency of mortgage could directly impact their quality of life. This study would like to use macroeconomic factors to measure the impact of household mortgage affordability in Taipei metropolitan. This study would observe the relationship between income and household mortgage affordability under the same macroeconomic factors.
    This study uses affordability at risk published by Gan and Hill (2009), calculating household mortgage affordable risk by actual mortgage amount and affordable mortgage amount. Given different income segmentation, this study would discuss the relationship between household mortgage affordable risk and macroeconomic factors under study period.
    The empirical results show that "housing price", "economic growth rate", " interest rate" and "building area" have significant effects on household`s mortgage affordable risk. The conditions of mortgage affect the mortgage affordable risk of lower income group more than upper income group. The more income the household have, the less significant variables they are affected. Furthermore, the third-income household takes the highest risk of mortgage affordability while the government developed policies in order to curb the housing price.
    Reference: 一、中文部分
    內政部營建署 (2014a),住宅需求動向調查,第12卷第4期,頁49-51。
    內政部營建署 (2014b) ,103年第四季住宅資訊統計彙報,頁94。
    李泓見、張金鶚、花敬群 (2006) ,「台北都會區不同住宅類型價差之研究」,《台灣土地研究》,第9卷第1期,頁63-87。
    林左裕、柯俊禎、王琮生 (2006) ,「房貸保險之費率結構研究」,《台灣土地研究》,第9卷第2期,頁27-52。
    施燕 (2014) ,「面對房市泡沫的挑戰」,《台灣銀行家》,第50期,頁10-13。
    財團法人金融聯合徵信中心 (2009-2014) ,購置住宅貸款統計資訊。
    張金鶚、高國峰、林秋瑾 (2001) ,「台北市合理房價-需求面分析」,《住宅學報》,第10卷第1期,頁51-66。
    張偉智 (2003),「住宅抵押貸款提前還款與違約風險動態條件機率分析」,國立政治大學財務管理所,未出版碩士論文。
    陳明吉、蔡怡純、張金鶚 (2003) ,「住宅負擔能力惡化之再檢視-台北市住宅市場分析」,《台大管理論叢》,第14卷第1期,頁47-78。
    陳彥仲、呂昭宏 (2013) ,「建立購屋負擔風險指數再檢視家戶住宅之購屋能力-台北與高雄地區購屋家戶之比較」,《住宅學報》,第22卷第1期, 頁107-129。
    陳慧敏、張金鶚 (1993) ,「由住宅負擔能力與補貼公平探討我國購屋貸款制度」,《臺灣土地金融季刊》,第30卷第1期,頁199-226。
    彭建文、蔡怡純 (2012),「住宅負擔能力與住宅自有率之長期關係─追蹤資料共整合分析應用」,《住宅學報》,第21卷第1期,頁1-27。
    曾平毅 (1994),「都會區擁屋力之初探」,《都市與計劃》,第22卷第2期,頁173-190。
    劉依姿、蔡錦堂、林哲群 (2012),「房貸還款衝擊信用風險之探討」,《台灣土地研究》,第15卷第1期,頁73-93。
    鄧依萍、姜堯民 (2004) ,「房屋購買力指數計算及其影響因素分析」,2004中華民國住宅學會論文集。
    薛立敏、曾喜鵬 (2000) ,「台灣各都市內部遷移率與住宅市場關係之實證研究」,《住宅學報》,第9卷第2期,頁79-97。
    二、英文部分
    Bourassa, S. C. (1996), “Measuring the Affordability of Home-ownership”, Urban Studies, 33(10), 1867-1877.
    Bramley, G. (1990), “Access Affordability of Housing Need,” Paper Presented at ESRC Housing Studies Conference University of Survey, Mimeograph, SAUS University of Bristol.
    Engle, R.F. and A.D. Smith (1999), “Stochastic Permanent Breaks,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4), 553-574.
    Gan, Q. and R. J. Hill (2009), “Measuring Housing Affordability: Looking Beyond the Median,” Journal of Housing Economics, 18(2), 115-125.
    Lawrence, E. C.; L. D. Smith and M. Rhoades (1992), “An Analysis of Default Risk in Mobile Home Credit”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 16, 299-312.
    Linneman, P. and I. Megbolugbe (1993), “Housing Affordability: Myth or Reality,” International Perspectives in Urban Studies, 1, 38-62.
    Pivo, G. (2013), “The Definition of Affordable Housing: Concerns and Related Evidence,” Working paper, Fannie Mae, Accessed 7 January 2014 at: www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/fundmarket.
    Shlomo, A. (2015), “11th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: Ratings for Metropolitan Markets”, Urban Expansion Project, 1-59,at: www.demographia.com/dhi11-media.pdf.
    Stone, M.; T. Burke. and L. Ralston (2011), “The Residual Income Approach to Housing Affordability: The Theory and the Practice,” Positioning Paper, No. 139, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Melbourne.
    三、網路資料
    中央銀行全球資訊網 (http://www.cbc.gov.tw)
    內政部營建署全球資訊網 (http:// www.cpami.gov.tw)
    內政部不動產資訊平台 (https://pip.moi.gov.tw/V2/Default.aspx)
    台北市政府主計處 (http:// dbas.gov.taipei)
    行政院主計總處 (http://www.dgbas.gov.tw)
    信義房屋 (http://www.sinyi.com.tw/knowledge)
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    行政管理碩士學程
    103921053
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103921053
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[行政管理碩士學程(MEPA)] 學位論文

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