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| Title: | 財務分析師大膽及領導特性與盈餘預測準確度之探討 |
| Authors: | 林佳慧 |
| Contributors: | 張清福
林佳慧 |
| Keywords: | 大膽
領導
分析師
盈餘預測準確度
bold
leader
analyst
earning forecast accuracy |
| Date: | 2008 |
| Issue Date: | 2016-05-09 11:28:56 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究以I/B/E/S中2004至2005年所有美國公司為樣本，依財務分析師盈餘預測值與所有財務分析師盈餘預測平均值之差異程度，將財務分析師分類為大膽或膽怯的財務分析師，並依財務分析師盈餘預測發布之時點將財務分析師分類為領導型或從眾型財務分析師。針對財務分析師盈餘預測行為大膽及領導特性，探討時效性領導型財務分析師之盈餘預測是否會較大膽，並進一步研究大膽的財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度是否較高，以及時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度是否較高。
研究結果發現時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測行為會較大膽，但大膽的財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度較低，且時效性之領導型財務分析師其盈餘預測準確度並未出現較高的現象。
Security analysts can be characterized as bold or herding based on the absolute distance between their earnings forecasts and the consensus forecast. Security analysts can also be classified as lead or following based on the timeliness of their earnings forecasts. Based on I/B/E/S annual earnings forecasts of all American companies during the period of 2004-2005, this study addresses the association between bold and lead and the relation between bold forecast and forecast accuracy. In addition, the relation between lead forecast and forecast accuracy is investigated as well.
It is shown that lead analysts are bolder than following analysts and boldness likelihood increases with the frequency of analysts’ forecast and declines with the analysts’ prior accuracy. Further, bold analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate than herding analysts’ and lead analysts’ earnings forecasts are less accurate than following analysts. |
| Reference: | 一、中文部分
巫姿穎，2005，承銷關係、聲譽、與分析師預測:以美國IPOs為例，東海大學會計學系碩士論文。
汪健全，1993，台灣地區影響財務分析盈餘預估準確度因素之實證研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文。
林宜勉，1994，財務分析師預測之探討，商業職業教育，第58卷：39-45。
高維宏，2003，領導型、從眾型分析師與企業生命週期關係之研究，國立中正大學會計研究所碩士論文。
許秀賓，1991，財務分析師餘盈預測相對準確性決定因素之實證研究，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。
許秀賓，1993，財務分析師盈餘預測優越性決定因素－實證研究，會計評論，第27 期：137-158。
葉美玲，1997，影響管理當局與分析師盈餘預測相對準確性之因素，國立中正大學會計學研究所碩士論文。
二、英文部分
Ackert, L.F., and G. Athanassakos. 2003. A simultaneous equations analysis of analysts’ forecast bias, analyst following, and institutional ownership. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 30: 1017-1042.
Chopra, V. K. 1998. Why so much error in analysts’ earnings forecast? Financial Analyst Journal 54: 35-42.
Clement, M. B. 1999. Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter. Journal of Accounting and Economics 27: 285-303.
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Clement, M. B., and S. Tse. 2005. Financial analyst characteristics and herding behavior in forecasting. Journal of Finance 60: 307-341.
Cooper, R. A., T. E. Day, and C. M. Lewis. 2001. Following the leader: A study of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts. Journal of Finance Economics 61: 383-416.
Gleason, C. A., and C. M. C. Lee. 2003. Analyst forecast revisions and market price discovery. Accounting Review 78: 193-225.
Graham, J. R. 1999. Herding among investment newsletters: Theory and evidence. Journal of Finance 54: 237-268.
Hong, H., J. D. Kubik, and A. Solomon. 2000. Security analysts’ career concerns and
herding of earnings forecasts. RADN Journal of Economics 31: 121-144.
Jacob, J., T. Z. Lys, and M. A. Neale. 1999. Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts. Journal of Accounting and Economics 28: 27-50.
Krishnan, M., S. C. Lim., and P. Zhou. 2006. Analysts` herding propensity: Theory and evidence from earnings forecasts. (working paper)
Stickel, S. E. 1992. Reputation and performance among security analysts. Journal of Finance 47: 1811-1836.
Trueman, B. 1994. Analyst forecasts and herding behavior. Review of Financial Studies 7: 97-124. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
95353034 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095353034 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [會計學系] 學位論文
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