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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/87580


    Title: 台灣地區人口高齡化的預估與其對醫療費用影響之研究
    The research on the elderly medical expenses under the influence of the population projection in Taiwan
    Authors: 呂文慧
    Lu, Wen-Hui
    Contributors: 余清祥
    Yu, Qing-Xiang
    呂文慧
    Lu, Wen-Hui
    Date: 1996
    Issue Date: 2016-04-28 15:12:51 (UTC+8)
    Abstract:   本論文是從人口結構改變的角度,去探究未來醫療費用可能的改變狀況。首先從世界各國高齡化的情形,探討其形成原因,以及對於醫療費用的影響。由文獻和歷年數據中,我們不排除人口高齡化對醫療費用會形成膨脹的可能;本研究利用時間序列分析方法中的ARIMA Model,預估未來育齡婦女年齡別生育率,進而推估未來人口之年齡分佈;研究發現台灣確實存在逐漸老化的狀況,然研究結果顯示,情況並不若我們想像來得嚴重,即老人比例攀升速度還不至於太快,但為避免重蹈日本過度老化的經驗,我們應及早調整人口政策,以及趁年輕時,為老年生活作準備。
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    風險管理與保險研究所
    83358021
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002002954
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[風險管理與保險學系] 學位論文

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