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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/78864


    Title: 金融發展對經濟成長的影響－動態追蹤資料門檻模型
    Other Titles: The Role of Financial Development to Economic Growth-Dynamic Panel Threshold Model
    Authors: Shen, Chung-Hua;Lin, Chang-Ping
    沈中華;林昌平
    Contributors: 經濟系
    Keywords: 經濟成長;金融發展;門檻迴歸;GMM估計法;追蹤資料
    Economic Growth;Financial Development;Threshold Regression;GMM Estimation;Panel Data
    Date: 2009-07
    Issue Date: 2015-10-06 14:52:09 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文旨在探討於全球的架構下，各國金融發展對於經濟成長之關係爲何？並且進一步探討銀行發展及股市發展是否對經濟成長有不對稱效果。對於過去相關文獻無法獲得金融發展與經濟成長間一致的關係，我們懷疑應與金融發展與經濟成長間爲非線性關係有關。延伸Shen and Lee (2006)我們將探討是否於金融發展與經濟成長間存在著銀行的門檻效果，並提出兩個假說，第一是「blessing-in-low-regime」，即在低度銀行發展區域，金融發展對於經濟成長有正面影響。第二是「curse-in-high-regime」，即在高度銀行發展區域，金融發展對於經濟成長有負面影響。本文發展一個新的模型：動態追蹤資料門檻模型(dynamic panel threshold model, DPTM)是延伸Hansen (1999)的追蹤資料門檻模型(panel threshold model, PTM)，認爲經濟成長會受到自己上一期變數所影響，結果指出就銀行發展對於經濟成長的影響而言，在低度銀行發展區域支持「blessing-in-low-regime」；在高度銀行發展區域支持「curse-in-high-regime」。反之，就股市發展對於經濟成長的影響，在低度銀行發展區域並不支持「blessing-in-low-regime」；在高度銀行發展區域亦不支持「curse-in-high-regime」。
    This paper is aimed to investigate the asymmetric effect between financial development and the economic growth. Following Shen and Lee`s (2006) findings, we plan to examine whether the effect of financial development on the growth depends on the threshold variable of bank development. Our hypothesis is thus that the bank development is a blessing to economic growth at the low bank development regime but a curse at the high bank development regime. To examine this ”blessing-in-low-regime” and ”curse-in-high-regim” hypothesis, we develop a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) to test this hypothesis. The DPTM is a direct extension of the non-dynamic panel threshold model of Hansen (1999). We can conclude with that the effect of bank development on the growth support the hypothesis ”blessing-in-low-regime” and ”curse-in-high-regime” but the effect of stock market development on the growth does not.
    Relation: 經濟研究, 45(2), 143-188
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Economics] Periodical Articles

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