| Abstract: | 房屋預售制度是國內不動產業的一大特色,業者透過此機制的運作可籌得開發所需的部分資金,減輕巨額投資的資金壓力,而購屋者藉由逐期繳付及預定每期繳款額度的方式,可依本身財務負擔能力先行規劃資金流量,如此作法不僅提供了民眾可負擔之購屋方式,且由於預售屋與成屋市場價格的差異,隱含著相當的利潤與風險,吸引了許多投資者的參與,期能從中獲利。 雖然預售制度於國內房地產市場行之有年,但對預售屋的價格卻一直缺乏有系統嚴謹的研究,致使市場中訂價策略不清,其中的觀念與背後的意義更是模糊,造成政府管理及業者經營上的困擾,也直接威脅到購屋者的消費權益,因此透過預售屋價格理論層次的探討,將有助於清楚瞭解此交易方式的本質。 由於房屋預售的交易標的為預售契約,而此約定於未來特定時間交貨之契約買賣型式,基本上即具有遠期(Forwards)交易與期貨(Futures)的性質(史綱(1992),Chang & Ward (1993),張麗姬(1994),Huang(1994),林容如(1994)),因此如何藉由遠期交易與期貨訂價的相關理論,來建立預售屋之訂價模式,並探討國內房地產市場景氣變動下預售屋與成屋的價格差異,即基差(Basis,(B)=交易日預售屋價格(ft)-交易日之成屋價格(Pt))與差價(Backwardation,B/sup */=預期交屋日之成屋價格(E(PT))-交易日之預售屋價格(ft)),以澄清學術上對預售屋與成屋價格差異的疑點,及作為業者訂價與一般大眾購屋時的決策依據為重要的課題。 本研究主要分成兩篇,第一篇分析遠期交易與期貨之相關理論於預售市場之適用性與意義詮釋,並依序探討預售屋與成屋之價差影響因素,然後藉由儲存理論(The Storage Theory)考慮預售屋之市場與產品特性於無套利均衡的條件下,導出適於國內預售屋之訂價模式,即預售屋價格等於成屋價格加持有成本、履約保證費用、及預期景氣變動價差。並用以分析預售屋與成屋之價格差異形成原因,發現影響兩者價差變動的主要因素是預期景氣變動。故第二篇再進一步針對預期景氣變動對預售屋與成屋價格差異的影響,透過數理模式做深入的探討,以建立預期景氣變動價差模式,分析影響價差的因素及其意函而發現預期景氣上揚時,預售屋之漲幅大於成屋,反之預期景氣下滑時,預售屋跌幅亦大於成屋,而所建立之模式皆藉由過去以太平洋房屋公司所提供之77-79年大台北都會區成交案例4004筆的實證分析結果,加以驗證,其結果與理論模型大致吻合。
In Taiwan, the pre-sales housing system is a quite unique and very important method allowing homebuyers to speculate on or buy their houses. The prices of pre-sales houses have become a leading indicator of the housing cycle in the market. There is, however, little knowledge about how and why pre-sales house prices are decided; or what is the relationship between the pre-sales and existing house prices. Since one characteristic feature of the pre-sales system is its similarity to forward or futures transactions, it is desired to determine whether the theories of forward or futures transactions can explain the pre-sales house pricing behavior. This research will use an arbitrage viewpoint to discuss the difference (basis) between pre-sales and existing house prices. According to the normal backwardation theory or the hypothesis of unbiased futures pricing, homebuyers will consider the carrying charges of a pre-sales house, and the price of a pre-sales house will be higher than an existing one. However, if homebuyers further consider the risk premium of pre-sales houses and the expectations of the housing cycle, the basis will be different. This paper will establish a pre-sales house pricing model for Taiwan and provide past empirical data as a preliminary evidence. |
