政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/72692

English | 正體中文 | 简体中文 | Post-Print筆數 : 27 | Items with full text/Total items : 113648/144635 (79%)
Visitors : 51615808 Online Users : 466

RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.

Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer

政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 財務管理學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 140.119/72692

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/72692

Title:	Market-based Evaluation for Models to Predict Bond Ratings
Authors:	湛可南 Chan, Konan;Jegadeesh, Narasimhan
Contributors:	財管系
Keywords:	Bond rating prediction;relative rating strength portfolio;bond trading strategy;bond market efficiency
Date:	2004
Issue Date:	2015-01-08 17:50:02 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	Previous studies have examined different statistical models to predict corporate bond ratings. However, these papers use agency ratings as the benchmark to assess models and ignore the evidence that agency ratings may not be accurate in a timely manner. In this paper, we propose a new approach which incorporates ex-post bond returns to evaluate rating prediction models. Relative rating strength portfolios, formed by buying under-rated bonds with agency ratings lower than model ratings and selling over-rated bonds with agency ratings higher than model ratings, are employed to test the performance of different statistical models in rating predictions. Our results show that one version of multiple discriminant analysis model can generate a statistically significant abnormal return of 5% over a 5-year horizon. The ordered probit model which is believed to possess theoretical advantages in classifying bonds does not perform better. This suggests that using traditional measures to evaluate models can be misleading. The existence of a profitable trading strategy also raises the concern of market efficiency in the corporate bond market.
Relation:	Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 7(2), 153-172
Data Type:	article
Appears in Collections:	[財務管理學系] 期刊論文

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
153172.pdf		186Kb	Adobe PDF2	1247	View/Open

社群 sharing

著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement

1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.

Loading...