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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/70166


    Title: 「南方政治」的再檢驗：總統選票的分量迴歸分析
    Other Titles: Re-examining ＂Southern Politics＂ in Taiwan
    Authors: 徐永明;林昌平
    Hsu, Yung-Ming;Lin, Chang-Ping
    Contributors: 金融系
    Keywords: 省籍效果;分量迴歸;南方政治;總統選舉
    ethnic politics;quantile regression;southern politics;presidential election
    Date: 2009.05
    Issue Date: 2014-09-25 17:34:10 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 為了探討民進黨總統得票率在2008年的減退之後，不同省籍集中區的鄉鎮市對於民進黨得票率是否有不同的影響性，本文發現其省籍聚居的選票效果反而受到選票多寡的影響。我們採用分量迴歸模型進行分析，發現2008年總統選舉中，影響民進黨得票率的省籍效果與2004年總統選舉的省籍選票效果，在控制該地區選票分佈的條件下，呈現相似的行為：對閩南與客家地區，該地區選票多寡對省籍聚居的選票效果，有顯著的影響。其中閩南地區選票多寡的影響性是遞增的，客家地區選票多寡的影響性則呈現倒U型，在選票多寡的兩端，省籍影響力較大。反之，對外省地區，選票多寡的影響則是不顯著的。也就是說，在高得票率地區與低得票率地區，閩南集中區與客家集中區對於得票率的影響性，明顯與傳統迴歸的估計不同。分量迴歸模型與傳統迴歸模型（最小平方法）最大的不同處，在於分析得票率的變化下，省籍的邊際影響性是否有所差異，也就是透過控制得票率的高低，探討省籍的影響是否有所變化。分量迴歸可進行多個估計值的測量，與單一估計值的測量相比，分量迴歸可在多個測量間進行差異的顯著性檢定，我們發現選票多寡對於省籍的影響性是顯著的。而為了控制選票多寡的影響性，本文接著採用地域性質（南方、北方）進行區分，選票多寡對於省籍效果的影響就消失了。換句話說，本文認為地域的南北性質依然是影響省籍效果差異性的主要原因，而在2008年民進黨得票率降低的情況下，其省籍效果還是存在，但是我們發現省籍的影響力是受到地域的影響。
    Political blocs analysis was created with the stated objectives of generating information regarding the political nature of geographical distribution. This paper is aimed to investigate the effect of region, ethnic groups and electoral system on the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) ratio in election by using quantile regression model. The most important attribute of quantile regression models is that they not only allow to explore the overall significance of the independent (or explanatory) variables for the conditional distribution of the dependent (or response) variables, but at the same time make it possible to determine the varying influence that independent variables have on the dependent variables under distinct conditional distribution scenarios.We reach one conclusion that the DPP is a party whose success and political existence is very much determined by class and regional characteristics.
    Relation: 選舉研究 , 16 (1) , 1-35
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[選舉研究 TSSCI] 期刊論文

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