| Abstract: | 有關股利政策是否會影響公司價值的說法,眾說紛紜莫衷一是,Modigliani & Miller認為公司價值與股利政策無關,但亦有許多學者認為股利發放對股價具有影響力。如Gordon的一鳥在手理論認為,股利的發放對股價產生有利的影響;所得稅差異論認為,股利的發放會對股價造成不利的影響;訊號放射假說論認為,股利的變動會使投資人對公司的未來形成某種預期,進而影響股價;股利顧客效果論則認為,不同的股利政策可吸引不同的投資人。 綜合上述理論及國內外的實證,可知股利政策對股東財富的影響仍是一個謎,為了對其有進一步的認識,本研究探索公司上市後第一次股利發放對股價的影響,由於第一次的股利發放含有較多的未預期成分,因此更容易看清楚未預期股利對於股價具有何種影響,此外,本研究亦以問卷調查的方式來了解投資人對現金股利及股票股利的偏好情形,及影響其偏好的因素為何。 實證及問卷調查結果顯示:(1)公司上市後首次股利的宣告,對股價具有顯著的正面影響,且在宣告日前30天起,累積超常報酬即有一路上升的現象,可能意味資訊的洩露而使股價提前反應。(2)股票股利的宣告較現金股利的宣告具有更顯著的超常報酬,意味國內的投資人對股票股利有較明顯的偏好及較強烈的反應。(3)實證結果發現,股利變動和未來盈餘的增減無顯著相關,因而無法支持資訊放射理論的說法。(4)問卷調查結果顯示,機構投資人普遍認為,被投資公司的股利政策是重要的,且股票股利較現金股利明顯的受到注意,此點與實證結果具有一致性。(5)由複迴歸分析結果發現,超常報酬的成因無法由股利的變動,上市的類別及市場景氣所解釋,因此其形成原因仍有待繼續研究。
The relations between dividend policy and firm value is a puzzle. The purpose of this study is to find the impact of initial dividend announcement of new listed firms on shareholders. The market model is used to examine the abnormal returns when the initial cash dividends and stock dividends are announced by the new listed firms. Also, the abnormal returns are analyzed by using a cross-sectional regression model. Moreover, 132 institutional investors are surveyed about the influence of the dividend policy of invested firms to their investment decisions. The results demonstrate a positive stock-price reaction to the initial announcement of dividend of the new listed firms. And the announcement of stock dividends leads more significant effect than cash dividends. It also explains why institutional investors pay more attention to the stock dividends of invested firms. In addition, the cross-sectional regression model shows that all the variables can`t significantly explain the abnormal returns. The information content hypothesis also can`t get a consistent conclusion. |
