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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 財務管理學系 > 國科會研究計畫 > Item 140.119/69772

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/69772

Title:	短期利率、股票風險貼水與市場擇時績效---台灣股市之探討
Other Titles:	Short-Term Rates, Equity Risk Premium and Market Timing---The Case of Taiwan
Authors:	徐燕山
Contributors:	財務管理學系
Keywords:	風險貼水;市場擇時;股票市場;短期利率;市場績效;台灣 Risk premium;Market timing;Stock market;Short-term rate;Market performance;Taiwan
Date:	1999
Issue Date:	2014-09-10 17:47:49 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文分別探討短期利率與預期權益證卷溢酬在市場擇時上的績效。研究結果顯示,短期利率或預期權益證卷溢酬均具有相當的市場變動預測能力,短期利率在短期投資期間(三個月、六個月或九個月)的預測表現較佳,而預期權益證卷溢酬則在一年投資期間的預測上表現較佳;然而,整合這兩種預測工具卻無法提高市場預測能力。 This paper examines the market timing abilities in terms of short-term interest rate and expected equity risk premium. The empirical results show that both the short-term rate and expected equity risk premium possess forecasting abilities. The expected equity risk premium has better forecasting abilities for one-year investment horizon, while the short-term rate has better performance in the short-term investment horizons. The combining index through integrating the short-term rate and expected equity risk premium does not outperform either the short-term rate or the expected equity risk premium in market forecasting.
Relation:	行政院國家科學委員會計畫編號NSC88-2416-H004-002
Data Type:	report
Appears in Collections:	[財務管理學系] 國科會研究計畫

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